he Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDM) and the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) are set for one-on-one contests in by-elections to eight National Assembly constituencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Punjab and Sindh. Former prime minister Imran Khan, the PTI chairman, is contesting seven of the seats against joint candidates fielded by the 11-party alliance.

The by-elections will provide another test case for the former prime minister’s popularity. The PDM has been alleging that he hatched a conspiracy and misled the people by misrepresenting the facts with regard to a diplomatic cypher. It hopes that his narrative has lost some of its appeal on account of the recent ‘leaks’. Khan seems to have enjoyed massive support among the masses since his ouster from the government. This became clear in the provincial assembly by-elections in the Punjab. Even in the 2018 general elections, the constituencies being contested were won by candidates from his party. He is thus seen having the upper hand and far from being an underdog. The stakes are high. If he wins all the constituencies, it will be a setback for the ruling alliance in the general elections. If he loses some of constituencies, it will raise the spectre of a waning popularity for him and the PTI.

123 PTI members of the National Assembly had tendered resignations following the successful vote of no confidence against him. Speaker Raja Pervaiz Ashraf has since then accepted the resignations of 11 members including two women, elected against reserved seats. They include Shireen Mazari (reserved), Ali Muhammad Khan, Ijaz Shah, Farrukh Habib, Shandana Gulzar (reserved), Fazl Muhammad, Fakhar Zaman, Abdul Shakoor Shad, Jameel Ahmed and Akram Cheema.

The Election Commission had consequently called by elections in nine constituencies; NA-22 Mardan-III, NA-24 Charsadda-II, NA-31 Peshawar-V, NA-45 Kurram-I, NA-108 Faisalabad-VIII, NA-118 Nankana Sahib-II, NA-237 Malir-II, NA-239 Korangi Karachi-I and NA-246 Karachi South-I. However, the by-poll in NA-45 Kurram has been postponed on account of law and order issues. By-elections in NA-246 were cancelled after MNA Abdul Shakoor Shad filed a petition before the Islamabad High Court (IHC) claiming that he had not intended to resign and the IHC restored his membership.

On the other hand, NA-157 Multan has fallen vacant after PTI’s Zain Hussain Qureshi contested by-election for a provincial assembly seat in the Punjab. In the by-election to be held in NA-157 Mehr Bano Qureshi, daughter of Shah Mehmood Qureshi, is the PTI candidate.

Election 2018 results show that the votes polled by the PDM candidates in these constituencies taken together were more than those polled by the PTI candidates. In theory, if the PDM can manage to bring the same voters to the polling stations it can win most of the constituencies. However, the two sides have campaigned in vastly different ways. While Khan has organised and addressed mammoth rallies in most of the constituencies, major PDM leaders have rarely been to the constituencies. Maryam Nawaz, a major PML-N crowd puller is currently abroad and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the main PPP attraction is not allowed to campaign on account of his public office.

NA-22 Mardan III

Imran Khan will face PDM’s Maulana Qasim Jan (JUI-F). This can be a close contest.

In the last general election, PTI’s Ali Muhammad had polled 58,652 votes and Maulana Qasim Jan bagged 56,587, losing with a margin of around 2,000 votes. Jamshid Khan of the (PML-N) had secured 36,804 votes, ANP’s Malik Aman Khan 27,303 votes and PPP’s Shoaib Alam Khan 13,336 votes from the same constituency.

If the JUI-F, the PPP, the ANP and the PML-N can motivate their voters and bring them to the polling stations, the PDM can win this seat.

NA-24 Charsadda II

As a PDM candidate, Awami National Party’s Aimal Wali Khan is facing Imran Khan in this constituency.

Election 2018 results show that the votes polled by the PDM candidates in these constituencies taken together were more than those polled by the PTI candidates. In theory, if the PDM can manage to bring the same voters to the polling stations it can win most of the constituencies.

In 2018, the PTI’s Fazl Muhammad Khan had defeated ANP’s Asfandyar Wali Khan. Fazl had bagged 83,596 votes while Wali Khan had got 59,809 votes. Maulana Muhammad Gohar of the JUI-F had bagged 38,330 votes and the PPP’s Aftab Alam bagged 10,464 votes.

NA-31 Peshawar-V

Another ANP leader, Haji Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, will challenge Imran Khan on behalf of the PDM in this constituency.

In 2018, the PTI’s Shaukat Ali had got 87,975 votes against ANP’s Bilour who got 42,526 votes only. However, the JUI-F’s Muhammad Siddiq-ur Rehman had got 11,669 votes and PPP’s Muhammad Irfanullah bagged 7,506 votes.

The PDM will have to work very hard in the constituency.

NA-108 Faisalabad-VIII

Imran Khan is taking on Abid Sher Ali of the PDM.

In 2018, PTI’s Farrukh Habib got 112,182 votes to defeat PML-N’s Abid Sher Ali who bagged 110,907 votes. PPP’s Malik Asghar Ali Qaisar also bagged 4,905 votes.

NA-118 Nankana Sahib II

PML-N’s Shezra Mansab Ali is the PDM’s candidate against Imran Khan in this constituency.

In 2018, PTI’s Brig Ijaz Shah had polled 63,918 votes to defeat Shezra who had bagged 61,395 votes. PPP’s Shahjahan Ahmad Bhatti had 18,739 votes in the election. The margin was a little above 2,000 votes.

Again, the challenging factor for the PDM is IK and his popularity.

NA-157, Multan

The PTI’s Mehr Bano Qureshi, daughter of Shah Mehmood Qureshi, is facing the PDM’s Syed Ali Musa Gilani, son of former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani.

Some PTI supporters had expressed serious reservations against Bano’s nomination. A local PTI leader, Waseem Abbas, is also in the run as an independent candidate. This can split the PTI vote bank.

In 2018, Zain Hussain Qureshi had bagged over 77,000 votes to defeat Ali Musa Gilani who had got over 70,000 votes. PML-N’s Abdul Ghaffar Dogar had polled 60,000 votes.

Together the PML-N and the PPP can win this seat.

NA-237 Malir II, Karachi

Imran Khan will face PPP’s Abdul Hakim Baloch who is representing PDM.

In 2018, PTI’s Jamil Ahmad Khan had defeated the PPP’s Abdul Hakim Baloch by a narrow margin. The PTI got 33,522 votes while PPP bagged 32,054 votes.

It might be a tough contest.

NA-239 Korangi, Karachi

Imran Khan is running against the PPP’s Imran Abidi. The MQM has also fielded a candidate in the constituency after the two parties failed to reach consensus. After Kamran Tessori’s appointment as Sindh governor, it is expected that the MQM candidate will withdraw.

In 2018, the PTI’s Muhammad Akram had won the constituency with 69,161 votes against MQM’s Sohail Mansoor who got 68,811 votes. The PML-N’s Muhammad Ehsan had 19,617 votes and MMA’s Muhammad Haleem Khan got 12,290 votes.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of  journalism, writer and analyst.