obody can probably tell today with any degree of certainty when the dust raised by the political instability will settle and whether sanity will prevail in the end.

The political temperature has been rising with Imran Khan’s non-stop jalsas. Of late, the responses from the coalition federal government too have been contributing to it. The Islamabad High Court has set aside the conviction of Maryam Nawaz and her husband in an accountability case in which former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, too, was convicted and sentenced. The audio leaks involving the prime minister and his predecessor and their responses to those have added new dimensions to some of the raging debates. The government and the opposition led by the former prime minister, Imran Khan, appear set for confrontation – even a clash but all that can change quickly should Imran Khan decide to withdraw the PTI resignations from the National Assembly and return to the parliament.

Following the recent audio leaks, Imran Khan, Pakistan’s first prime minister ousted from power through a successful no-confidence vote, has reiterated his claim that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an 11-party alliance, conspired against him at the behest of the United States. In support of his allegations, he has cited the contents of a diplomatic cypher. Despite clear denials by the US and the PDM and the determination by the National Security Committee that there was no evidence of such a conspiracy, the PTI is again demanding a fresh investigation regarding the cypher.

On September 28, a 1.43-minute audio clip appeared on social media. It was apparently a segment from a conversation between former prime minister Khan and his principal secretary, Azam Khan, about how the classified diplomatic cable may be for political purposes.

“We have to play with this. Don’t take America’s name, just play with this,” the PTI chief can be heard saying in the clip. Azam Khan responds: “If you recall, in that cypher, the ambassador has written in the end to send a demarche.” The principal secretary then advises the prime minister to hold a meeting with then foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and the foreign secretary.

After the audio clip went viral on social media, a reporter asked Khan about it. He did not deny the conversation. Instead, he accused Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif of having leaked the clip.

The former PM has long used the diplomatic cypher to build a narrative of ‘the US Conspiracy’ against his government and labelled all PDM parties and their leaders and supporters as traitors and foreign agents.

It was on the basis of this conspiracy narrative that party stalwart and former National Assembly deputy speaker Qasim Suri had tried to block the constitutional process of vote of no-confidence. Khan had then not only criticised his political opponents but also accused the superior courts and the military of not doing their duty. His chief of staff Shahbaz Gill was then arrested for instigating a mutiny and has still to undergo a trial on the charge. Khan had then threatened a judge apparently for remanding Gill in police custody. For that and his refusal initially to apologise, he was called by the Islamabad High Court to answer the contempt of court charge. The case was dropped later, however, when he expressed regret and remorse.

Maryam Nawaz might surprise her political opponents by returning to Pakistan sooner than expected. So might her father, Nawaz Sharif, who was convicted and sentenced by a court and went abroad for medical treatment. Sharif’s return might change the tone of national politics and infuse a new spirit in the PML-N supporters.

It seems that there is a need for a high-level non-partisan committee of experts to investigate the matter. If Khan and his men are found to have exploited a routine diplomatic cable to mislead the people of Pakistan and undermine the constitution by intercepting the no-confidence motion against his government, stern action, in the light of the law and the constitution, must be taken against them. If the investigations prove Khan’s allegations, the PDM leaders should face similar action.

Prime Minister Sharif has said that the cypher been shown to have nothing to support Khan’s claim and there is no need for another probe.

Meanwhile, the federal cabinet has formed two committees to investigate the matter of the missing copy of the cypher from the Prime Minister’s Office record and the audio leaks.

For his part, Khan is seen trying to remain in constant touch with his supporters. He is holding frequent public gatherings and meeting party stalwarts.

On Wednesday, he spent a hectic day in Lahore meeting with members of the provincial cabinet and PTI leaders from various districts. He directed the Punjab ministers and MPAs to be prepared for his call for another long march. He told them to prepare lists of activists available in each district and ensure their participation in the march. He also directed the PTI leaders to generate funds for the march.

However, he did not reveal the date for the proposed long march. Whether the PTI will attempt the march on Islamabad before the by-elections to nine National Assembly and three Provincial Assembly seats scheduled for October 16 and the second phase of local government elections in Sindh on October 23 is not known.

If Khan opts for a long march before the polls, the PTI will be unable to contest the elections with its full strength. If the march is called after these polls and the party wins a majority of the seats in the elections, the party will be stronger. If Khan loses most of the seats and then goes for a march, that might be a futile exercise. These considerations make this a hard decision to take.

Maryam Nawaz, meanwhile, is going to London for her treatment. She might stun her opponents by returning sooner than expected. So could Nawaz Sharif who was convicted and sentenced by courts and then went abroad for medical treatment. Sharif’s return might change the tone of national politics and infuse a new spirit in the PML-N supporters.

Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has said that the federal government will not let the PTI march enter the Red Zone in Islamabad. If the PTI supporters tried to break the law, he said, the government will be prepared to deal with them.

The PTI has, meanwhile, filed a petition before the Supreme Court against the recent amendments to the accountability laws. A three-member bench comprising Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, Justice Ejazul Ahsan and Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah is hearing the case. On Wednesday, Justice Shah remarked that Khan should have approached the parliament with his reservations against the amendments rather than bringing the matter to the court. “The public had reposed trust in Khan by electing him to the National Assembly. Why did he leave the assembly without consulting the people of his constituency?” he remarked.

This indeed may be the best piece of advice for Khan. He should trust his popularity and vote bank instead of urging some powerful quarters to bring him back to power. He should go back to the parliament with his members and keep the movement alive inside and outside the parliament. Doing otherwise might result in a clash between political forces that will further weaken the state.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher