or the first time in the 75-year electoral history of Pakistan, an ousted prime minister will simultaneously contest nine constituencies of the National Assembly. Imran Khan, chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) plans to contest the by-elections from Mardan, Charsadda, Peshawar, Kurram, Faisalabad, Nankana Sahib and three seats in Karachi (Malir, Korangi and Karachi South). Out of the nine constituencies, four are located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), three in Sindh and two in the Punjab. The by-elections scheduled for September 25 are being held for the nine National Assembly seats that fell vacant after the acceptance of the resignations by PTI MNAs.

In 2018, the PTI chairman had contested elections from five constituencies and made history by winning all five. He had defeated former KP chief minister Akram Khan Durrani of the Jamiat ul Ulema-i-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) from Bannu, former federal minister Khawaja Saad Rafique of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from Lahore, former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi from Islamabad, former MNA Ubaidullah Khan Shadi Khel of the PML-N from Mianwali and former Senator Syed Ali Raza Abidi of the MQM-Pakistan from Karachi. However, the PTI had lost two seats in the by-elections.

Election laws permit candidates to contest any number of seats. From the looks of it, Imran Khan is aiming to prove his popularity among voters by winning a majority of the seats in the by-elections. Contesting multiple seats in by-elections has traditionally been a way to establish a political leader’s popularity at the national level. Some analysts have criticised the practice in the past calling it a waste of the resources, considering the winning candidate can retain only one seat and by-elections have to be called to all other seats.

How significant are these by-elections? Are the constituencies really important? Why has the coalition government chosen to allow by-elections in these specific constituencies? There is an interesting theory about this. In the 2018 general elections, parties in the PDM alliance had contested independently, against one another on many seats. According to the 2018 election results, in 8 out of the 9 now-vacant constituencies, the votes secured by the PDM parties were more than the votes polled for the PTI. If the PDM parties field consensus candidates, they can hope to win some of the seats.

An interesting picture emerges from the 2018 vote counts. The PTI had secured 58,000 votes in NA-22 Mardan; the votes secured by PDM parties came to 133,000, more than twice those polled for the PTI. In NA-24 Charsadda, the PTI had secured 83,000 votes while the votes secured by the PDM parties were 109,000. The PTI had got 87,000 votes in NA-31 Peshawar and the PDM 64,000. In the by-election for the tribal district of Kurram, the PTI had got 16,000 votes and the PDM parties 32,000 votes. In NA-108 Faisalabad, the PTI had got 112,000 votes and the PDM secured 118,000 votes; in NA-118 Nankana Sahib, the PDM votes were 80,000 and the PTI votes 63,000 votes. In NA-237 Malir, the PDM parties had secured 62,000 votes while the PTI bagged 32,000 votes. In NA-239 Korangi, the PTI got 69,000 votes and the PDM parties secured 112,000. In NA-246 Karachi South, the PTI had secured 52,000 votes and the PDM parties 101,000 votes.

After the surprising success of PTI in the recent by-elections in the Punjab, the morale of the party is sky high. Workers of the PDM parties, appear to be on the backfoot and demoralised. Supporters of the PTI are of the view that Imran Khan’s current popularity is such that the opponents will have to think twice before contesting an election against him. But his opponents think that Khan is running out of options following his “U-turns” on various issues and that contesting all nine seats is an act of desperation.

After the Punjab by-elections, the PDM parties are expected to take to the electoral battlefield with a better strategy. They cannot afford more defeats at the hands of the PTI as that shows that the PTI is dominating the battle of political narratives.

The writer is a journalist currently working with Geo News. He tweets @majidsnizami