he resounding victory of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) in July 17 by-polls has posed a serious challenge to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which has lost the support needed in the Punjab Assembly to form a government. The coalition federal government too has been reduced to a margin of one vote.

In the by-polls, last week, the PTI secured 15 out of 20 seats. The PML-N, which was expecting a victory, suffered an embarrassing defeat securing only four seats. On one of the four seats won by the PML-N, the losing PTI candidate has sought a recount on account of a very thin margin.

The PTI had been alleging that the PML-N, which had a government in the Punjab during by-polls, was using government machinery and trying to manipulate voters to secure a majority in the Punjab by-poll to maintain its hold in the Punjab, and by extension at the Centre. With 15 more seats in the provincial assembly now, the PTI-PML-Q alliance’s tally comes to 188, which is more than the required 186.

Experts says that following its massive defeat in the by-polls, manipulating political support in the Provincial Assembly to retain the government through support of some members of the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) can only tarnish the PML-N’s image.

In a coalition of more than a dozen parties in the National Assembly, the PML-N has 83 seats. It bagged the prime ministership after the success of a no-confidence motion against former prime minister Imran Khan, earlier in April. It then managed to topple the PTI government in the Punjab with support from PTI dissidents.

Following the upsetting defeat in the by polls last week, Maryam Nawaz, the PML-N vice president, said, “The PML-N should accept the results of the by-polls with an open heart. It should respect the decision of the masses.” She went on to add that winning and losing elections was a part of electoral politics. She said the party should now focus on its ‘weaknesses’.

After the by poll results, the political situation has become even more difficult for the PML-N. It not only lost in the Punjab to a party it recently ousted from power in the province but also stands on slippery ground in the Centre where the coalition supporting the government is fragile and has a very thin margin.

Experts says that following its massive defeat in the by-polls, manipulating political support in the Provincial Assembly to retain the Punjab government through support of some members of the PTI and the PML-Q can only tarnish the political image of the PML-N.

“After losing the Punjab, the most populous province, PM Sharif has lost real. It is best for him now to call early general elections and dissolve the National Assembly,” PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry has said.

PM Sharif held a marathon round of meetings in the past week, a sign of the nervousness being felt in Islamabad. He also had a meeting with the party’s senior leaders and allies in the federal government.

The coming days promise more troubles for the PML-N on account of internal division, a fragile coalition and the worsening economic challenges that threaten to further damage the party’s popularity and weaken its hold.

According to some insiders, the PML-N already faces internal division. They say Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz were not in favour of forming a ‘weak’ federal government at this stage, and get blamed for the economic fallout of the previous regime’s mistakes. However, PM Sharif is seen to be determined to retain his office till the end of the National Assembly’s term.

The influence of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the major coalition partner of the PML-N in Islamabad and the Punjab, is also affecting the PML-N’s morale. Asif Ali Zardari support for PM Shahbaz Sharif’s bid to remain in power has further complicated the matter.

But the biggest challenge for the party and its government in Islamabad is the economic crisis: rising inflation and consistent depreciation of the rupee. The PML-N leaders claim that they made a political sacrifice in agreeing to take tough decisions for the welfare of the country but the government appears to have failed on that front. The International Monetary Fund deal is still pending apparently until certain pre-conditions including a free currency exchange rate, sale of loss-making state enterprises, and significant hike in prices of petrol, electricity and gas have been met.

There is a general perception that the PML-N became the key player after the establishment withdrew its support for former prime minister Imran Khan. The situation appears to have helped the PTI sell an anti-establishment narrative while also taking the air out of the PML-N sails.

It now appears that the PML-N will try to drag its rule on, at least till November, when the appointment of a new army chief is due.

The author is a staff reporter. He can be reached at vaqargillani@gmail.com. He tweets at @waqargillani