n his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, US President Joe Biden announced that his country “will not walk away” from the Middle East. “The United States is going to remain an active, engaged partner in the Middle East,” Biden reassured Arab leaders during a summit in Jeddah.

The Unites States’ relations with key Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia date back to the Cold War period. In 1945 the US offered its security umbrella to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in exchange for oil. Washington similarly developed cordial ties with both Egypt and Iraq in the 1980s due to regime change in those countries. The UAE also maintained solid relations with the US mid-1970s onwards. Earlier, however, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Syria and Jordan had had a tough line on Israel since its creation in May 1948.

In the early phase of the Cold War, these Arab states fought with Israel militarily in 1948-49, 1967 and 1973. However, due to sophisticated military technology and weaponry, courtesy the USA, Israel prevailed over its rivals whose nationalist leaders failed to modernise their militaries. They also failed to reconcile with the contours of regional geopolitics whereby Israel was supported by the US-led allies as a counterweight to its regional rivals including the USSR and the post-revolution Iran. Having concluded following the 1973 war that the Arabs lacked the will and capacity to defeat Israel, Egypt chose to normalise relations it. As a result it emerged as a top recipient of American military hardware and economic assistance. Jordan did the same in mid-1990s.

Egypt also received loans and assistance from multi-lateral organisations like the IMF that helped it achieve currency stability and a measure of economic development. Importantly, Egypt also signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. However, the KSA and Iraq retained their confrontational stance towards Tel Aviv for another 40 years. The UAE did not have diplomatic ties with Israel during the said period but stayed in clandestine touch with Tel Aviv during the 1990s and 2000s. The secretive interactions were security and intelligence-oriented. Israel opened “trade offices” in the UAE and Qatar in 1996 but following public backlash, these were closed off.

The Saudi-USA relations, thrived during the last decades of the Twentieth Century. Though the scale of bilateral ties was disturbed in the immediate wake of 9/11 when 15 out of the 19 terrorists were found to have hailed from the KSA. However, the Kingdom denied any role in this respect and the US authorities targetted the terrorists while maintaining a stable relationship with Riyadh particularly during the Iraq war where the Saudi military bases were used by the American military for its operations in Iraq. Moreover, oil-oriented commercial relations too stayed on the track. An irritant in bilateral relations came in the form of the US-led nuclear deal with Iran, KSA’s archrival in the region, in 2016 when Obama administration tried to reconfigure the Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, the Democrats lost the presidential election and Donald Trump made a famous visit to the Kingdom in 2017 where bilateralism was championed even in commercial and military terms. Riyadh is the top buyer of American military hardware. The US has relied on the Saudi carbon resources in the past decades. However, Washington has started purchasing more oil from Canada and Mexico and focusing on its shale reserves.

Another irritant in bilateral relations came in terms of the US-led nuclear deal with Iran, which is KSA’s archrival in the region, in 2016 when Obama administration tried to reconfigure the Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, the democrats lost the presidential election and Donald Trump made a famous visit to the Kingdom in 2017 where bilateralism was championed even in commercial and military terms. Riyadh is the top buyer of American military hardware.

Importantly, the Saudi oil reserves are about to be exhausted. Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Salam (MBS) has therefore initiated the Vison 2030 to diversify the Saudi economy and reduce its reliance on carbon resources. Socioeconomic concerns have also been a factor in the Saudi and Emirati policies towards Israel smaller in territorial terms than the erstwhile FATA but rich in technology. Israel is also Iran’s avowed enemy. The “enemy’s enemy” logic has been the key to Israel-KSA relations through informal contacts. Recent academic studies on the Middle East have shown that the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 in strategic understanding with the KSA. However, the Kingdom itself has seemed reluctant to take a similar leap perhaps on account of its traditional anti-Israel discourse as a result of which the Saudi society by and large views Israel in negative terms.

The way in which MBS is going against the conventional ethos by, for example, allowing women to drive cars, it seems the KSA may also revisit its foreign policy towards Israel. The contours of such a policy shift were made possible by the Biden visit whereby as an early gesture the Saudi authorities permitted Israeli flights through Saudi airspace. This development will help map popular perceptions on the possibility of Saudi-Israel formal relations in the coming months. It may also create a soft corner for MBS in the Biden administration if not the US society. Pro-Israel lobbies around the world view it as a positive development.

The Biden visit was also aimed at urging the Saudi authorities to pump more oil for the US so that the latter can cope with the growing recession. However, the Saudis did not make any formal commitment in this respect. The matter is likely to be discussed again at the upcoming GCC+ 3 (Iraq, Egypt and Jordan) summit. Besides, regional issues such as the future of the Palestinian state, extension in Yemeni truce and demilitarisation of the Red Sea islands were discussed as well. However, durable solutions to Palatine and Yemen conflicts require more brainstorming. Lastly, the Biden-led USA cautioned its regional rivals. He said, “We will not walk away to leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.” Will the USA have the will and capacity to counter China and Russia in the Middle East? Will Washington re-focus on this region in the coming years? Currently the US appears more focused on Indo-Pacific than any other part of the world.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC-Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor at the Department of Social Sciences, Iqra University, Islamabad. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com