akistan has traditionally been hit by high floods in the Indus and its tributaries during summer and occasionally during winter monsoons. There have been two dominant approaches in the country to deal with these floods. First, traditionally, most farmers welcome floods believing that since floodwaters carry sediments and nutrients, they bring fertility and prosperity. Foods are typically followed by a cycle of bumper-crops for two to three years, helping farmers overcome minor losses to their crops and livestock. Historically, as during the Moghul times, the excess water is diverted to recharge wetlands and lakes, rejuvenate mangroves and the aquatic life along the coastline. Second, and particularly since the British times, the dominant view is that floods can and should be controlled by undertaking active measures to modify and change the behaviour of floodwaters using dams, dykes, levees and storm-surge barriers and channel modifications. This is very resource-intensive, but Pakistan has followed this approach since the early 1960s. In fact, Pakistan has spent probably more financial resources on water infrastructure than on education and health combined. The fourth National Flood Protection Plan, presently under implementation, has an unbelievably high price-tag of Rs 332,246 billion. Most of these investments are for structural works. The non-structural components in this plan are negligibly small. It is still not clear how Pakistan will reconcile these two paradigms – one bottom-up and the other top down – and make flood management investments pro-poor and climate-smart.

Historically, Pakistan has paid little attention to non-Indus floods. It is only in recent years that they have begun to compete for our attention. These include:

Glacial outbursts

These result from glacial melt, accelerated by prolonged high temperatures, followed by heatwaves and heavy rains. They trigger more frequent glacial outbursts, affecting several districts of Gilgit Baltistan (Ghizer, Hunza, Nagar, Shigar and Ghanche) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The floods caused by glacial melt have an extraordinary speed, allowing no warning time. They wash away everything that comes their way – villages, bridges, roads, hydro plants, schools, hospitals, human beings and their livestock. In Pakistan, over 7,000 glacial lakes have emerged. The government has identified 33 to be imminently dangerous. This year alone, the glacial melting in Hispar, Hoper and Badswat glaciers has already washed away parts of the Karakoram Highway, adversely affecting the CPEC trade route. Trends show that glacial outbursts now occur earlier and that this lengthens Pakistan’s flood-risk period by several weeks, impacting the crops and their sowing periods in downstream regions.

Flash floods

Pakistan is fast becoming more vulnerable to flash floods that are caused by excessive rainfall in a short period of time, made worse by uncontrolled flow under gravitational pull. Quetta has, for example, become a victim of flash flood from its Mordar mountain in the east and Chiltan hills in the south. A primary reason is expansion of human settlements towards the catchment areas and blocking of their drains. Many regions in KP and several other towns in Balochistan such as Pasni, Panjgor and Turbat in Makran area, situated in the foothills and flood planes are also experiencing flash floods. Flash floods and landslides at Khojak pass on Quetta-Chaman National Highway have recently interrupted trade with Afghanistan. This is a new threat to local livelihoods and for fresh and dry fruit trade, increasing commodity prices down country.

Kirthar range separates Sindh from Balochistan and annual flash floods coming from the Suleman range to Sindh used to enjoy unhindered flow and drain into Nai Gaaj Nullah and Malir and Lyari rivers. It has now been obstructed by the construction of elite farm housing and a residential township on the foothills of Kirthar range. This diverts flash floods to low-income and informal settlements. Likewise, the Suleman range between Balochistan and the Punjab has become a major source of flash floods since the construction of Indus Highway in 2018 and Chashma Right Bank Canal in 2020. These obstructions routinely cause flash floods in Taunsa, Kot Qaisrani and Tabbi and inundate a vast area upstream of Guddu Barrage. Controlled breaches at designated sections on the right bank – upstream of Guddu and downstream on its left bank – are part of established SOPs. Any breaches on the opposite sides of the aforementioned protocol can only be because of manipulation and influence peddling. In fact, it is important to point out that the breaches made overnight to protect sugarcane and cotton crops of influential local farmers during the 2010 super floods caused devastating downstream flash floods on the left bank of the Indus. This has changed the history of flood management: a classic case of elite capture became, almost overnight, the world’s biggest climate-induced flood story. In all, the flash floods in these examples are a testimony to the need to adopt climate-smart flood management policies and practices.

Urban flooding

Owing to unplanned urban growth and complacent state institutions, urban storm drains, nullahs and freshwater tributaries have been encroached upon. Cities lack functional waste collection and disposal systems and hence, the stormwater channels in most cities have become repositories of municipal and industrial waste. Almost all urban centres in Pakistan face annual urban flooding, depriving students of school-days and workers, especially females, of work-days. Cosmetic measures aggravate the issue as seen recently in Karachi’s Gujjar drain and Orangi areas. These only harms the city’s economy, while punishing the poor in low-lying areas. Pakistani cities have become unwelcoming for new residents and investors. Newcomers find space only in low-lying flood-prone areas. A combination of poor infrastructure and very poor governance drives the investors and entrepreneurs away, holding the city back from becoming robust, safe and welcoming.

Pakistan is a disaster-prone country but not all its disasters are triggered by climatic changes. Frequent attributions to climate change are often misplaced, misleading and unscientific. Since we have still not recognised climate crisis as a serious social, political and economic challenge, it is not reflected in our national, social and political discourse. The resources allocated in our national and provincial budgets, for example, do not always add to national resilience. Our limited development budgets are routinely committed to maladaptation that is adding to insecurity and reducing options for adaptation. The losses and damages from floods can be steadily reduced by adopting climate-smart governance.

The writer is an Islamabad-based expert on climate change and water governance. He can be reached at atauqeersheuikh@gmail.com