he Supreme Courts of Pakistan’s verdict about the election of Punjab chief minister on July 22 has raised hopes in the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q).

Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, the PML-Q chief, hopes to regain the office. Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz and its allies now need not only to keep their strength in the PA intact but also win at least nine seats in the by-election to maintain a majority.

A three-member SC bench, headed by Chief Justice Umar Atta Bandial, issued the verdict while hearing petitions by the PTI and the PML-Q against a Lahore High Court judgment ordering fresh polling for the election of the Punjab chief minister. The PTI has meanwhile breathed a sigh of relief after the issuance of a notification of election for five PTI MPAs on reserved seats on July 6.

The assembly consists of 371 seats of which 297 are general seats, 66 are reserved for women and eight reserved seats for minorities. Before July 6, the house was short of 25 legislators unseated after they voted against party line. Of the 25 de-seated MPAs, 20 had been directly elected while five were elected against reserved seats. The PTI had then asked the Election Commission of Pakistan to notify election of five PTI members on the reserved seats. The PML-N had challenged the plea on the ground that the reserved seats are allotted to the parties according to their proportion of the general seats in the assembly. It said the notification should be deferred until after by-elections. However, the ECP has been directed by the courts to issue a notification of five PTI nominees to these seats. According to a notification issued on Wednesday, Habkook Rafiq Babbu and Samuel Yaqoob have been declared elected on seats reserved for non-Muslims. The seats had fallen vacant after MPAs Ijaz Masih and Haroon Imran Gill were de-seated.

Batool Zain, Saira Raza and Fouzia Abbas Naseem have been notified as MPAs on women’s seats that became vacant after the de-notification of Uzma Kardar, Aisha Nawaz and Sajida Yousaf for defection.

Prior to the notification, the PTI had 158 seats in the assembly and its ally the PML-Q 10. The opposition’s strength has now risen to 173 MPAs. Before the ouster of Sardar Usman Buzdar, the PTI had had 183 seats in the PA.

Currently the PML-N has 166 seats and the PPP seven. They also claim support of three independent MPAs and a Rah-i-Haq party member. Hamza Shahbaz thus currently enjoys support of 177 members. Hamza therefore is ahead of his rival, Parvez Elahi, by only four votes.

In a complete house of 371, a candidate needs 186 votes to be elected chief minister. If the house is not complete, rules allow election by majority. According to Punjab Assembly rules: if there is only one candidate and he secures the votes of a majority of the total membership, the speaker shall declare him to have been elected as chief minister. If he does not secure a majority, all proceedings for the election, including the nomination of candidates, shall commence afresh.

“If no candidate secures the votes of a majority of the total membership of the assembly in the first poll, the speaker shall conduct a second poll between the candidates who secure the two highest numbers of votes in the first poll and shall declare the candidate who secures the majority of votes of the members present and voting to have been elected as chief minister.”

“Provided that if the number of votes secured by two or more candidates securing the highest number of votes is equal, the speaker shall hold further polls between them until one of them secures a majority of votes of the members present and voting, and shall declare such a candidate to have been elected as the chief minister.”

Since the house is expected to be complete after the by-elections, the winning candidate will need 186 votes. Elahi can win if 13 PTI candidates win the by-elections. Hamza needs nine out of a total of 20 constituencies. If the PTI wins all 20 seats, it will still be dependent on the PML-Q support. If the PML-N sweeps all 20 seats, it will be in a position to form a government single-handedly.

Apparently, the PML-N has an upper hand. However, nail-biting contests are expected in the by-polls. Imran Khan has decided to address rallies in 17 of the 20 constituencies to motivate his voters. The PML-N has awarded tickets mostly to the PTI’s dissidents de-seated for voting against the party line. Of those, 10 had won the 2018 election as independents. To muster PML-N support for them, the party is using Maryam Nawaz. July 17 will be a decisive day for politics in the Punjab.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism and an analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher