On April 11, Shahbaz Sharif, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) president, was sworn in as the 23^rd prime minister of Pakistan following the ouster of his predecessor Imran Khan in a historic no-trust vote requiring interference from outside the parliament to prevent a constitutional crisis.

While cabinet formation took a few days, Sharif lost no time busying himself with doing what he does best – project monitoring. A visit to oversee an abandoned bus project connecting the capital to its airport; an order to complete a roundabout in five months; and a flying visit to an under-construction dam in the north of the country are a few examples of his early activity.

Capital grapevine, however, warns of tougher times ahead. A senior PML-N insider says the coalition his party is leading is possibly the weakest in Pakistan’s history. “Some other coalition partners have prospects; we have only problems to take care of.”

There are challenges within the party (PML-N), in the coalition, related to economy, governance, terrorism and law and order; but the most potent and trickiest appears to be the ousted prime minister who is ‘absolutely not’ ready to admit his exit was constitutionally crafted by his political opponents through superior gamesmanship. Fuming, he is egging millions of his angry followers on to march on the capital. And he wants the Armageddon to start later this month.

The honeymoon period for Shahbaz Sharif is likely to end early. He has started revving up his ‘delivery van’ with a visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seeking much-needed financial boost. He also needs commitment from his allies to last the mandated term. Successes will be shared, the failures will mostly haunt the PML-N.

Many factors may have contributed to Imran Khan’s fall but it is Asif Ali Zardari’s alliance building acumen that is being credited mostly for it. He had always advocated an in-House change rather than mass resignations proposed by others in the Pakistan Democratic Movement. His political dexterity will soon be seen eating into PML-N home turf – the Punjab. He has already sought to present the PPP as the sole spokesperson for the smaller parties from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Given an assured seat adjustment in the Punjab with PML-N, no matter how insignificant, he will be pitching his party as the leading player in the next elections. Given Nawaz Sharif’s continued absence from Pakistan, Zardari is well placed to control the coalition.

Imran Khan has shown no intent for parliamentary activity but procedural efforts are afoot by the new setup to keep the ship from drifting. Raja Pervez Ashraf, the National Assembly speaker, wrote to Khan on April 28 asking him to nominate PTI representatives to be included in a subject committee to discuss and recommend electoral reforms.

Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal has similarly invited Asad Umar, who held the portfolio in the PTI government, through a letter sent on April 21 for a “farewell meeting/ dinner” and requested a briefing “on the development initiatives of greater public importance that your government had started and which should continue in public interest.” Iqbal is yet to hear back from Umar.

Imran is not interested in these things. As a highly successful cricketer, he was conditioned early on to knock out his opponents. As a leading fast bowler of his era, a ball in his hand was hurled at the opposition – all day if necessary – like a bomb. The sole aim of the 111,265 balls that he bowled during his cricketing career was not to let his opponent play, or breathe, easily.

In his campaign to force the government to call early elections, he may be willing to risk violence. While some of his critics continue to argue that his 2014 dharna was a tactical failure in that it failed bring down Nawaz Sharif’s government, Imran possibly thinks otherwise. He might feel that the agitation set in motion the developments that ultimately forced Nawaz’s ouster.

Buoyed by the public response in Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar, Imran’s team is betting on a comeback. It is too early to say if that will happen. He has lost some of his comrades from the previous campaigns. Some of the prominent people now around him were lent to him by the powers that be. Given the apparent estrangement with the establishment, will the spontaneous public support be enough? The last time he became prime minister, he had the support of a little over thirty percent voters. Around two-thirds of Pakistani voters did not vote for him. Most of them don’t like his disdain for their leaders.

The government will definitely like to drag it out, to exhaust Khan on the streets. Having a ball in Islamabad in autumn is palatable; a march in May could be suicidal. With temperatures soaring to high 40s, Islamabad will be sizzling hot. Keeping dehydrated protesters charged will be a herculean task.

It is too early to predict whether the Sharif-Zardari-Fazl coalition will deal with Imran Khan and his supporters the way the Nawaz Sharif government did in 2014 or use another recipe. Common sense calls for defeating Khan politically, not administratively. Importantly, how will Rawalpindi, the garrison town, being constantly urged by Imran Khan to “rectify” the “wrong” they “committed” in April respond? Pressure from some of the former servicemen is mounting. Will a “neutral” nuance continue to be seen as the safest bet?

The next few weeks and months will decide whether Imran Khan turns out to be a Hannibal or the pied piper of Pakistani politics.

The writer works for the Jang/Geo Group. He tweets @aamirghauri