The Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition government has taken the reins at a time when the country is faced with the hardest internal and external challenges, including an economic crunch; an energy crisis; former prime minister Imran Khan’s political narrative and increasing political intolerance; foreign policy issues; and terrorism. Nonetheless, the top-most challenge for the coalition is to stay intact and perform well until the next elections.

The energy crisis and electricity shortfall are among the biggest challenges for the government at the moment. These are directly related to politics and are seen as indicators of the performance of a government. Pakistan is facing a 7,468 MW shortfall resulting in 10-12 hours loadshedding in some parts of the country. Power generation has recently been around 18,031 MW whereas the demand is estimated at around 25,000 MW. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif holds the Imran Khan-led previous government responsible for the crisis. He has ordered the operationalisation of the closed power plants and supply of fuel for them. He has also spoken to Saudi Arabia and the UAE for assistance to ensure regular fuel supply for the power sector. If he manages to overcome the crisis, this will be seen as evidence of his ability to deliver good administration. If the power crisis continues for another couple of months, his government will face immense public pressure that will hurt the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its allies in the next elections.

On the economic front, Pakistan is suffering from shrinking forex reserves, a large trade deficit and a high inflation rate. Rumours are rife that Pakistan could default on its debts like Sri Lanka but most economists and the government are confident that Pakistan will be able to handle the crisis. They say it has faced comparable situations in the past. According to official statistics, Pakistan’s forex reserves have dropped to a 28-month low, below $11 billion, barely enough to cover imports for the next two months. The last time forex reserves dipped to such a level was in December 2019. Amid the crisis, PM Sharif has undertaken a trip to Saudi Arabia and secured a deal that might add up to $8 billion to the dwindling forex reserves. Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has visited the US to negotiate with the IMF for a bailout package.

On the foreign policy front, Pakistan is trying to mend its relationship with the US, Saudia Arabia, Europe and China. The latter has been unhappy over the slow pace of work on the CPEC and terrorist attacks against Chinese workers in Pakistan. More visits by PM Sharif, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar to China, UK, US and European Union are expected. Reshaping Pakistan’s foreign policy will be a test case for Bilawal Bhutto, the youngest ever foreign minister of Pakistan. Meanwhile, terrorism has taken a new form that appears to be more dangerous than ever before. Pakistan has witnessed worst terrorist attacks in the past one and a half decade. There was a time when a suicide bomber would strike somewhere almost every week. The bombers had belonged to groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, Al Qaeda and Daesh and its affiliates. In some of the recent suicide attacks against security forces in Balochistan and Karachi, Baloch groups have used suicide attackers. These included their first female suicide bomber. The new government will have to meet this challenge with a multi-tier strategy. It may have to deal with the TTP, the Daesh, Al Qaeda and Baloch insurgents in the same way.

Alongside the fresh wave of terrorism, intolerance has increased in Pakistan. Pakistan has previously suffered from religious intolerance and disharmony but Imran Khan’s narrative calling leaders of the ruling coalition ‘traitors’ and inciting his supporters to lay siege to political opponents’ homes has triggered a wave of political intolerance especially amongst the urbanised and educated classes. If it is not countered effectively, the society will fall to a hybrid intolerance. More violent groups might emerge and cause chaos across the country.

To successfully counter Imran Khan’s narrative, the coalition government will have to provide vivid relief to the masses, kickstart a new round of efforts for creating tolerance and harmony at political and religious levels in the society and ensure early dispensation of justice.

Last but not the least, the coalition has to stay intact and lead Pakistan out of the ongoing crises before the next general election due in 2023. Some political commentators have argued that elections might take place earlier. Technically speaking, if as many as three MNAs quit the coalition, the government will be short of a majority. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam must keep the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the Balochistan Awami Party, the Balochistan National Party (Mengal), the Jamhoori Watan Party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid and the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement engaged and give them a sense of ownership. If the coalition crumbles, the PTI may be the sole winner.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher