mran Khan’s narrative knitted around a diplomatic cable, now famous as the Letter-gate Scandal has already created political and constitutional deadlocks in Pakistan and may lead to further complications on both domestic and external fronts.

Already, cracks have appeared in the social fabric of Pakistani society on account of Khan’s narrative. There is growing intolerance and governance-related issues especially in the Punjab, the most populated province, and the cold relationship with the US and European Union are making life harder. However, this is just the beginning. The country might face dire consequences if the damage is not controlled.

Khan disclosed the message in the ‘letter’ at a public rally in Islamabad, two weeks after the foreign ministry received the cable. He said that the no-confidence motion against him was a US conspiracy. The contents of the cable have not been made public. However, the National Security Committee has reviewed the letter in presence of its author, Asad Majeed and issued a declaration that the NSC has found no trace of a conspiracy. Khan is not willing to accept that finding and stands firm on his claim, seeking a judicial commission to probe into the ‘letter’.

Khan, who was the prime minister when the cable was relayed to Islamabad from Washington, could have handled the matter more diplomatically rather than involving the US government into Pakistan’s domestic politics. The cable was sent on March 7. The no-confidence resolution against the prime minister was submitted on March 8. The PTI says this is sufficient proof of a US conspiracy. Khan and other PTI leaders say that several leaders of the PML-N, the PPP and some of the PTI dissidents met US diplomats in various cities of Pakistan.

For the sake of keeping the record straight, it may be pointed out that the PDM had planned a no-confidence motion against Khan in 2021. Former president, Asif Ali Zardari was the mastermind of the plan. This was before the PPP parted ways with the opposition alliance. Later, weeks before Bilawal Bhutto started his long march from Karachi to Islamabad, The News on Sunday (TNS) had revealed that the no-confidence resolution will be tabled once Bilawal’s march reached the Punjab.

The allegations regarding meetings between some political leaders and the US diplomats are also immaterial. The US, Chinese, British and other diplomats keep meeting various political leaders. Recently, US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar came to Pakistan and met several leaders including Khan. A month before the no-confidence resolution was formally moved, some of the US diplomats had visited Multan and met, among others, family members of Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Yousaf Raza Gillani.

Still, one can say that Khan has managed to create a buffer against his plunging popularity through the letter-gate claims. This has proved a powerful tactic for his political survival.

The first significant impact of Khan’s narrative on the domestic scene is a quantum leap in social and political intolerance in Pakistan, already suffering from religious intolerance. The state and its institutions have been struggling to overcome religious intolerance and create inter- and intra-faith harmony. Khan’s narrative has made all these efforts fruitless. Now, the society is facing a serious threat of the spill-over of social and political intolerance leading to violence. The nation needs unity but stands further divided. Some of the PTI supporters and social media trolls ruling Pakistan’s social media are generating top trends on a daily basis. What makes them dangerous is their hostile and abusive demeanour especially when they engage with their opponents.

The first internal repercussion of Khan’s narrative is political and social intolerance in Pakistan, already suffering from religious intolerance. Pakistan and its institutions had been struggling to overcome religious intolerance and create inter and intra-faith harmony when Khan’s narrative made all efforts fruitless. Now, Pakistani society is facing a serious threat of the spillover of social and political intolerance that has and will lead to violence. 

Khan’s narrative and intent also led to a constitutional crisis after the former speaker and deputy speaker of the National Assembly left no stone unturned in trying to block the democratic and constitutional process of a no-confidence motion. The Supreme Court’s intervention worked and Khan became the first prime minister of Pakistan to be ousted through a successful no-confidence motion. President Arif Alvi also became controversial after he expressed reluctance in dispensing his constitutional duties like administering oath to the prime minister-elect, Shahbaz Sharif.

Likewise, a constitutional crisis occurred in the Punjab where Hamza Shahbaz was elected the new chief minister but the Punjab governor refused to administered the oath to him despite Lahore High Court’s orders in this regard. Instead, Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, the provincial assembly speaker, also facing a no-confidence motion, continued to call the shots on behalf of the PTI. The tactics he used against the opposition reminded one of Gen Musharraf’s rule when Elahi had served as the Punjab chief minister.

These actions have devalued the constitution and there is the danger of more people taking the supreme law lightly.

After the Supreme Court issued an order requiring that the constitutional process of no-confidence motion should go ahead, the PTI and Khan have started targetting the judges and the judiciary. The PTI’s anti-judiciary campaign has tarnished the judiciary’s image.

The most dangerous move by Khan and the PTI is their propaganda against the military leadership. Pakistan has never seen this kind of blatant propaganda in its history. This must stop as the practice can have a negative impact on Pakistan Army’s morale in its fight against menace of terrorism.

If the federal government decides to hold early elections and the PTI contests with the same narrative and mood, the elections might be the bloodiest in the country’s history as Khan has been directing his supporters to lay siege to the houses of his opponents.

Khan’s letter-gate narrative may also have seriously damaged Pakistan’s foreign relations. It may have a very deep impact on Pakistan-US ties that have already witnessed ups and downs on various occasions. Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa’s timely statement at a security conference in Islamabad soon after Khan expressed anti-US sentiments in a public meeting before the no-confidence vote may have served to contain the damage. Gen Bajwa said, “Pakistan wants extensive ties with the US.”

Khan’s narrative also put Pakistan’s economic interests, associated with the US and Europe at stake as these regions are the main destinations of Pakistan’s exports. Pakistan needs better ties with these countries to overcome its current account deficit and to attract investment.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has given positive signals to the US, Europe and other friendly nations including Saudi Arabia in first speech. The gesture has been reciprocated. However, if Khan continues with his current anti-West narrative, it could make trouble with the US and Europe and the organisations like the IMF, the World Bank and the FATF.

The PTI leadership is facing the threat of an adverse ruling in the foreign funding case. Khan wants the Chief Election Commissioner removed instead. If a decision comes against Khan and other PTI leaders, Khan may take his supporters to the streets using the anti-US slogan. This would harm not only the US-Pakistan ties but also relations with Europe.

The new government’s foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and state minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, will have to go the extra mile to mend relations with Pakistan’s traditional friends and allies who control the largest markets.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher