The PTI’s strength lies in the streets. But how long can it sustain the agitation?
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Ž“Ghulami namanzoor,” read a placard at a Pakistani Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) rally. “Imported government? Absolutely not,” read another.
Safe to say, the protests were dominated by anti-American slogans and placards, urging “azadi” (freedom) from “ghulami” (slavery) amid a “foreign conspiracy” narrative woven by ousted premier Imran Khan. Some of the workers at the PTI rally in Peshawar went to claim, “This is not a political movement. It’s a rebellion.”
When Khan became the first prime minister to be de-seated through a no-trust motion on April 9, most of his supporters, primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, were left astounded. Blaming the entire system for his downfall – even the most powerful were not spared a mention.
Unclear about a future outside the government, and refusing to lay claim on the opposition benches, the PTI chose factory reset. In its default state, the political party’s strength lies in the streets. A day after the midnight toppling of his government, Khan’s supporters took to the streets across the country, protesting not only the “external interference” but also the lack of internal intervention they implied was his due.
As soon as the party leadership regrouped, the supporters were hit with a new wave of enthusiasm and energy. The social media was flooded with videos, photographs and illustrations praising the former government’s efforts.
Apart from glorifying PTI’s accomplishments, Khan’s keyboard warriors were also running trends against some state institutions – protesting the “neutrality” that cost Khan his government. An outpour of intense support for Khan, and immense disgust by overseas Pakistanis for those living in Pakistan was also witnessed.
The constant hate proved tiresome for those who have been campaigning against institutional meddling in politics.
Three days after being removed, Khan kicked off his protest campaign with a public rally in Peshawar that has led many to believe that it was the largest gathering in the city ever. In Karachi, too, he managed to gather a sizeable number drawing comparisons with the heyday jalsa of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, despite the city experiencing gross neglect from the federal government over the last three years
Power shows are Khan’s forte, and he is aware of it.
With a two thirds majority in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, Peshawar remains the political backbone of the PTI, even if the electoral numbers from the province are not enough to make one a prime minister, it has served as a launching pad and continues to do so. The recent fight back by the PTI in the local government elections has left little doubt that Imran Khan’s ouster from the PM’s seat has reverberated a chord with the people of KP. Statistically, the PTI in its current state is way ahead of all political parties in the province. Keeping in view the trend from the 2018 general elections till the local government elections in the province, while the turnout has been 41 percent of all registered voters, the PTI leads with 27 percent of votes in the province cast in its favour; the JUI-F is the second and gathering momentum. However, with a year left for the next elections, it will require a mammoth effort for other political parties in the province to cover some ground and match the PTI.
But some observers believe that Khan’s support faltered a little after the Inter-Services Public Relations Director-General Maj-Gen Babar Iftikhar dismissed Khan’s foreign conspiracy narrative in a press conference last week.
Khan’s meeting with US Congress leaders, including Ilhan Omar, at Bani Gala has also baffled some of his supporters who cannot keep up with the dichotomy of courting American officials and an anti-American narrative.
Under the circumstances the question is how long can the PTI keep its audience charged? If history is of any relevance to these unprecedented circumstances, the simple answer is not for very long. Despite this, Imran Khan’s popularity as a man of the crowd is an acknowledged fact. To turn this to his advantage the only hope for him is early elections.
How soon can these elections be held? There is no exact answer for now. Going by the Election Commission of Pakistan, no sooner than October.
On the other hand, Khan’s litmus test for his electoral hopes of being elected back to office will rely heavily on the response in the Punjab; with local body polls approaching in June all eyes will be set there. However, the Punjab will not be an easy turf to play on. With the Shahbaz government in the Centre, and Hamza in the CM’s chair, it will be a difficult contest.
While KP and Karachi can serve as indicators of public support, combined they cannot elect a prime minister unless one has the Punjab.
The writer is a freelance journalist and a former editor