he clock is ticking. The opposition appears to be planning furiously to defeat Imran Khan. For its part, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is preparing for a bid to secure a two-thirds majority in the next elections by following Arvind Kejriwal’s 2015 model.

Recent events have a pivotal role in shaping the politics of the PTI, as well as the main opposition alliance, the Pakistan Democratic Movement.

Ahead of the controversial dissolution of the National Assembly, the opposition had wanted constitutional and electoral reforms to follow the success of its no-confidence motion against Imran Khan. It was also of the view that the basic features of the economy should be improved before elections were called. But after the constitutional manoeuvring by Imran Khan, the circumstances changed drastically.

The dominant view among political analysts is that the changes in the constitutional scheme must be acknowledged and corrected before new elections. Meanwhile, both the ruling party and the opposition are preparing their strategies to secure desirable numbers in the upcoming elections.

Will Imran Khan be successful in using his political martyr rhetoric? The PTI strategists are trying to build an attractive narrative to woo the voters. That narrative can be based on the argument that a corrupt opposition was playing a facilitator for some foreign power to destabilise the country and that Imran Khan led the PTI in successfully countering this conspiracy.

On the other hand, there is no doubt that the opposition has secured advantage going into next general election by bringing the no-confidence motion and mustering the support of 195 MNAs. The deputy speaker’s ruling aside, it was crystal clear on Sunday that Imran Khan had lost the majority in the house.

There is no doubt that the opposition has secured political advantage for the next general elections by bringing the no-confidence motion and mustering support of 195 members in the National Assembly.  

There are those who question the joint opposition as a temporary coalition of necessity to get Imran Khan out. Khan, too, has accused the opposition parties of foregoing their rivalries to unite against him. There is a counter narrative as well. It says that the opposition coalition is a principled political force, united in their battle to save democracy. The opposition claims that it stands united to oust a “selected” prime minister.

Apart from the numbers game, agreements between the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are worth mentioning because of their importance in relation to urban Sindh. The parties have agreed to acknowledge the mandate of one another and pledged to start and develop a long-term partnership to promote social justice and democratic values. Following the agreements, one can cautiously hope that it will be easier to address the problems of the citizens of urban Sindh. The PTI failed utterly to impress the urban population of Sindh despite the stunning electoral victory in 2018 in Karachi.

Pakistan has a long history of electoral fraud. Polling day rigging was common once but more recently pre-poll rigging through switching of party loyalties and doling out of development funds has been in vogue.

The presence and strength of “electables” will be another important factor in the general election. “You cannot win without electables and money,” was what Imran Khan had stated ahead of the 2018 general election amidst criticism that the party was ignoring party loyalists over electables all too willing to change loyalties. After more than three years in government, Khan now has a different understanding of the situation. In a recent TV interview, he stated that accommodating electables had been a mistake and that in the future, he will award party tickets to loyalists.

Money continues to be a major factor in electoral politics. How can the calculus encourage fielding candidates who do not bring their own campaign funds? Will the political parties then continue to award tickets to rich electables?

For several years now, national politics has been volatile and unpredictable. However, Pakistan cannot afford another epoch of instability.

The writer is a journalist currently working with Geo News. He tweets at @majidsnizami