n March, there was a sudden change of fortunes for the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government. Its majority turned into a minority, and it was about to lose a vote of no-confidence when the resolution was controversially struck down by the National Assembly deputy speaker. Members from Balochistan had a significant role in the demise of the PTI government.

There are 20 MNAs from Balochistan in the lower house of the parliament. Fourteen of them voted for Imran Khan in August 2018 to elect him prime minister. The remaining six belonged to Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl (JUI-F). Ten out of those 14 were supporting the opposition when the vote of no-confidence was about to take place. This practically nullified the thin majority of the PTI government in the National Assembly. Many back home in Balochistan wondered why their representatives had switched sides without any apparent gains?

The new supporters of the opposition include members of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M). These parties are bitter rivals in Balochistan’s electoral politics. The BNP-M calls the BAP a product of manipulation by Pakistan’s security establishment and does not consider it a genuine political party. BNP-M leader, Sardar Akhtar Mengal, was at the forefront during the opposition leaders’ meeting when BAP leaders joined the opposition ranks. This led many, including some BNP-M supporters, to say that principled politics is a thing of the past in Balochistan.

Background interviews with members of the opposition and some political analysts have revealed that most MNAs from Balochistan switched to the opposition at the eleventh hour after they were promised a share in the next government, which was expected to be headed by Shahbaz Sharif. It was said that the BNP-M was promised governorship of Balochistan; the BNP did not deny this. BAP members were allegedly offered tickets to contest the next election from the platform of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which sees itself as a major player in the next government of Balochistan. Informed people said that the flight of MNAs from Balochistan to the opposition ranks was the handiwork of former president Asif Ali Zardari.

Informed people said that the sudden flight of MNAs from Balochistan to the opposition ranks was the handiwork of former president Asif Ali Zardari.

The Balochistan MNAs had remained on treasury benches before the current crisis unfolded. They had not gained much from the government except for Qasim Suri who was made deputy speaker of the assembly and Zubaida Jalal who was the minister for defence production.

While the MNAs changed sides, a group of Provincial Assembly members (MPAs) also wanted to exploit the situation. The group led by former chief minister Jam Kamal has sought support from Sardar Yar Muhammad Rind of the PTI to topple the government of Chief Minister Quddus Bizenjo. These MPAs have reportedly held several meetings with opposition leaders, most notably Maulana Fazl ur Rehman, to enlist their support for a no-confidence motion in the Balochistan Assembly against the incumbent chief minister. Till the time of filing of this report they had not received any assurances from the opposition.

As general elections seem imminent the opposition alliance is likely to be short-lived. The BNP-M in particular will again be at loggerheads with the BAP. There seems to be no hope for the BAP as the ‘electables’ brought together to form the party are likely to join other parties prior to the next general elections.

The PPP seems to be in a good position in the electoral politics of Balochistan. Most of the BAP electables are likely to jump ship to the PPP. The reason is that the party is seen to have reached an understanding with the powers that call the shots in Balochistan. The JUI-F will continue to be a major power in the province and could form a government in coalition with the PPP.

Local government elections in Balochistan, due since 2018, are scheduled for May 29. If the general elections are called now the local government polls will once again be delayed.

The writer is a journalist covering Balochistan, CPEC, politics and economy. He tweets at @iAdnanAamir.