The government failed to highlight the areas where it was doing well
All real world governments fail at some of the things they attempt; most do well in some area or the other. Come a reckoning, it is common sense to highlight the achievements and try to explain away the failures. In my opinion, one of the major failures of the coalition led by Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has been its inability to take due credit for the things it got right.
Some of the things it did well but did not get enough credit for include its management of the Covid-19 crisis, in particular its policy of ‘smart’ lockdowns, the expansion of social protection programmes, and introduction of a health insurance scheme through its Sehat Card. Its attempt to curtail the capacity payment burden in the power sector through renegotiation with the independent power producers (IPPs) was also a move in the right direction even though the relief resulting from it was not huge and went mostly unnoticed by the masses.
Compared to neighbouring economies, Pakistan has managed the Covid-19 quite well. Having a dedicated NCOC may have been the difference between the relatively low casualty count and economic disruption in Pakistan compared for example to better resourced and culturally similar India. The NCOC was largely successful in maintaining adequate availability of testing kits, vaccines, oxygen cylinders, ventilators and personal protection equipment.
The smart lockdown policy in preference to comprehensive shutdowns was also an inspired choice. Instead of imposing a general curfew, the government locked down selected neighbourhoods based on the documented incidence of the disease. This policy helped protect livelihoods of millions of people, particularly urban poor. On a macro-level, it enabled the textile sector to expand at the cost of regional peers where strict lockdowns were in force and production was stalled.
The national social protection initiative during Covid-9, called the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme, was the fourth largest in terms of the number of people covered and third in terms of percentage of population covered amongst those that covering more than 100 million people. However, this disbursement of emergency grants at such a large scale, upgrade of the national socio-economic registry, identification of potential beneficiaries through a transparent mechanism and launch of several other social safety nets failed to get decisive recognition and appreciation domestically as effective strategies to insulate low-income people from the impact of food and fuel inflation amid a pandemic.
The health insurance launched through Sehat Card in three provinces can be a signature initiative for any South Asian government. The PTI government failed even to use this initiative effectively in defence of its performance.
Renegotiation with independent power producers to reduce some of the capacity payment charges has helped slow down the accumulation of energy circular debt. It is a step in the right direction but the government has not been able to use it to build a narrative of better energy governance.
What can explain this narrative building failure?
First, fallback mechanisms are not considered important until someone needs them. Barring initiatives in the energy sector, most of the initiatives mentioned aboveare fallback mechanisms that were/ are taken to protect people from certain types of risks that arise out of uncertain events. For instance, the primary purpose of social protection and Covid-19 management initiatives was not to take people out of poverty (or improve their life expectancy) but to stop them from falling deeper into poverty by saving their livelihoods (or lives) amidst the pandemic. Similarly, the importance of health insurance can only be recognised when someone has to get hospitalised. The importance of such measures is not readily realised by the masses.
Another reason the PTI government did not get much political mileage from the initiatives is that these are not “brick and mortar” projects. Most people are more inclined to appreciate tangible outputs. It is easier for governments in Pakistan to defend their performance by quoting the number of hospitals built, than by quoting the number of lives saved due to better management of existing health facilities.
It can be argued that the health insurance initiative should have been started earlier. If regulated adequately to prevent misuse of insurance by health services providers, the initiative has the potential to be a signature intervention. However, it is too early for most people to recognise its potential benefit.
Building a positive narrative in support of its socio-economic initiatives has been a significant challenge for this government. This is partly because many in the government have preferred spending their time and energy criticising its predecessors rather than highlighting their own achievements. This tendency has its political cost and implications.
If the PTI government survives the current political turmoil, it will do well to highlight the things it managed to do right. It should also try to foster a political consensus around the solutions to major economic challenges facing Pakistan. The advice is also valid for the next government if the PTI does not survive the vote of no confidence.
The author heads the independent policy think tank, Sustainable Development Policy Institute. He tweets @Abidsuleri