The fate of Prime Minister Imran Khan and his narrow-margin coalition rule looked bleak on Wednesday. The coalition lost the sliver of hope it had had when one of its key allies – the Mutahhida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) openly sided with the opposition, assuring its leaders of its full support in the no-confidence motion tabled against the prime minister. The pressure on Khan to quit before the no confidence motion is decided by a vote was quite obvious. But Khan preferred to “play till the last ball”. He cited a document he carried to link the plot against his government to a powerful country he hesitated to name because of diplomatic compulsions. He said the “foreign sponsored conspiracy” to oust him from power was because of his clear and bold stance against certain global powers. Many on social media have been speculating that the country he was referring to was the United States. Khan and his team insisted on staying the course until the official count in the house, hoping apparently that the reference to the document will sway some of the MNAs and turn the tables on the opposition. A National Security Council meeting was also called on March 31 to discuss the matter.

By Thursday the opposition appeared to be leading the ruling coalition by 10 votes. It claimed the seven MQM votes and four from the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and one from Jamhoori Watan Party( JWP) from among the ruling alliance besides about two dozen defections expected from within the PTI.

From the day that the PTI came into power, the opposition had been accusing the military establishment of propping up this government after the allegedly rigged and manipulated general elections in July 2018. According to this narrative, the military establishment is now ‘neutral’ and this has eliminated the artificial majority of Khan’s coalition.

The military establishment and the Foreign Office have been quiet about the document cited by the prime minister as evidence of the plot against him. According to media reports, the document was classified as an official secret after the PM showed it to his cabinet members on March 30. Some PTI leaders, including the PM, have indicated that the document was shown to the military establishment too. It appears that Khan did not expect an encouraging response and was advised not to make the document public, perhaps because of serious diplomatic implications and complications. He was further told not to use this document for his political campaign against the no confidence motion. This may have been the reason Khan did not read the contents of the letter in his rally on March 27. Instead, he relied on a carefully written script mentioning this document in a hesitant way. Khan was also stopped from sharing it with the chief justice and the media. The PM addressed the nation on Thursday and urged the defectors and opposition “not to become part of this conspiracy”. The Islamabad High Court chief justice, hearing an urgent petition the same evening, also said the PM was not expected to share any secret document with the media or the public as that would be a violation of the oath of his office. The army leadership twice met Khan that day.

A no confidence motion was also moved against Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. Khan then found himself constrained to nominate Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, the leader of his 10-MPA ally Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam) as the coalition’s candidate for chief minister of the largest province despite having 183 PTI members in the provincial assembly.

In dealing with party colleagues, government officials, military establishment and foreign diplomats, PM Khan has frequently been criticized for being unnecessarily belligerent.

“We are together here at a historic moment. These are testing times for Pakistan. We are here with the opposition for a better democracy and its fruits at grassroots level. We have preferred national interest to our personal and political interests,” Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, the MQM-P leader told a packed presser after joining the opposition camp. “Prime Minister Imran Khan is left with no option. Morally speaking, he should resign. Alternatively, he should ask for a vote as early as possible,” Bilawal Bhutto of PPP said. In a house of 341, the number of opposition members, as per public announcements by parties and individual members of the house, has surpassed 200. However, the government continues to insist on waiting for the formal vote, hoping for some miracle.

The moving of a No Confidence Motion against Khan was followed by a series of street power shows and impressive demonstrations including by the ruling PTI and the key opposition parties.

Some analysts refuse to rule out that the ‘neutrality’ of the military establishment was seen by the movers as tacit support to oust Khan. ‘National intertest’ was mentioned by those quitting the alliance as their sole reason.

In dealing with party colleagues, government officials, military establishment and foreign diplomats, PM Khan has frequently been criticized for being unnecessarily belligerent. A serious rift with the military establishment occurred last November when the prime minister delayed the appointment of a new director general for the Inter-Services intelligence (ISI) and insisting that Lt Gen Faiz Hameed be given some more time. After many days of tension, the PM appointed the appointment of a new DG for the ISI but the appointment notification mentioned that he will assume charge after a couple of weeks.

In his speeches, at various points in time, he hinted that being the chief executive he could choose to appoint a junior general he found capable. Moreover, as many media reports suggest, the sitting army chief, who got an extraordinary extension in advance and out of the way as the extension was legalised through the parliament later, had been meeting opposition politicians and economists to get a sense of the allegedly poor performance of the PTI government. He had stopped the earlier opposition bid to oust the PM a year ago, arguing that the government needed more time to perform. Besides the military, Khan also failed to manage his party colleagues and other allies. Certain groups in the party had been threatening defection for the many months. Some of the allies had been unhappy because of non-cooperation of the ruling party and the PM. The appointment of Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar was also considered a cause of rift with the army and disgruntlement within the PTI. Khan’s pick failed miserably at impressing with his performance yet Khan kept praising him throughout.

Externally, the PM had been showing sternness while talking about Pak-America relations and kept accusing the US of not supporting and appreciating Pakistan’s role in the War on Terror. His remarks added to the mistrust between the two countries. Khan’s regime wanted ‘no favour’ from America but more trade. Asked by an American journalist whether Pakistan will provide CIA airbases for counterterrorism in Afghanistan, he said “absolutely not.” His remarks were considered loud, bold and undiplomatic.

His comments about Afghanistan war and withdrawal of US forces pleased few. The US was not happy with his visit to Moscow on the very day Russia invaded Ukraine. Following the episode, European Union envoys in Pakistan wrote a letter to Islamabad pressing it to condemn Russia. The PM responded by publicly asking whether the EU had written a similar letter to India or if they had ever pressed India for its violations of human rights in Indian-occupied Kashmir?

Khan’s approach consistently irked political players and he continued to ignore advice. Many believe that the situation indicates that the military establishment remains influential if not instrumental in terms of running the political show either by pulling strings or showing ‘neutrality.’ No prime minister in the history of the country has completed his five-year term. Voting on the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan will be held on April 3.

Party position in the NA before tabling NCM against PM

Government Position

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf 155

Muttahida Qaumi Movement 7

Pakistan Muslim League (Q) 5

Balochistan Awami Party 5

Grand Democratic Alliance 3

Intendents 2

Awami Muslim League - Pakistan 1

Jamhoori Wattan Party 1

Total 179

Opposition parties’ position in NA before tabling NCM

Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz 84

Pakistan People’s Party 56

Mutahhida Majlis-e-Amal 15

Balochistan National Party 4

Independents 2

Awami National Party 1

Total 162

Addition in Opposition numbers after NCM (till March 30)

PTI defectors 22

MQM Pakistan 07

BAP 04

PML Quaid 01

Independents 01

JWP 01

Total 36

The author is a staff   reporter.  He can be reached at vaqargillani@gmail.com   Twitter: @waqargillani