Almost by default, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) appears set to retain its centre-stage place in the great game of national politics. If the opposition succeeds in dislodging Prime Minister Imran Khan from his office, the party is virtually guaranteed a leading role in any future setup with the current composition of the parliament. A failure in its bid to overthrow the prime minister, on the other hand will cause no deep dent to the party in the near future.

The momentum behind the no-confidence motion has truly unnerved the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and PM Khan. The sight of over a dozen PTI MNAs holed up in Sindh House has confirmed its worst fears. While Asif Ali Zardari, the former president, is being generally credited with bringing together the ruling party members dissatisfied with governance under Khan, in case of a change of government through the no-confidence motion, the PML-N is likely to get the premier’s office and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) some choice portfolios in the federal cabinet. The rest of the opposition parties too will likely get some share in the federal cabinet to create an impression of a broad coalition – a ‘national government minus PTI’ running the country. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), currently PTI allies, too could joined hands with the new government and negotiate their share of power and spoils.

The new government is expected to focus on the forthcoming elections. Stabilising the economic situation and some election-related legislation are likely to appear prominently on its agenda. It is also likely to hold a quick audit of the current government’s actions. PML-N Punjab president Rana Sanaullah has already indicated that a ‘ruthless’ accountability of the PTI ministers should be expected. Sensing the potential risks, some of the top guns in the Punjab are said to have started putting together and straightening out sensitive records and obtaining physical custody of important documents. PML-N member in the Punjab Assembly Hina Pervaiz Butt moved a resolution on Thursday, demanding that the government order an inquiry in this regard.

Some PML-N insiders have confided in The News on Sunday (TNS) that the party -N supremo, Nawaz Sharif might announce plans for his return home soon after PM Khan loses the crucial vote in the National Assembly. His return home is meant to boost the morale of party workers.

Some PML-N insiders claim that Nawaz Sharif will announce plans for a return home soon after Prime Minister Khan loses his vote of confidence. His return to the country is meant to raise the party workers’ morale.

Hopes in the party ranks have been further raised by Broadsheet CEO Kaveh Moussavi’s apology to Nawaz Sharif during an interview with Geo TV. He said, “We found a lot of plundered wealth but I can categorically state after virtually 21 years of investigation that not one rupee was related to Mr Nawaz Sharif or any member of his family. If anyone says otherwise, they are lying…. I have no hesitation in issuing an apology to the former prime minister for my being party to a scam.”

Another benefit from the success of the no-confidence motion against PM Khan may be a change of government in the Punjab. Once PM Khan is deposed from his high office, the PTI-led government in the Punjab is likely to collapse as well. It will then be virtually impossible to form a provincial government without the PML-N support. The scenario is highly attractive to the PML-N as it could allow it to further strengthen its campaign for the general elections.

If the no-confidence motion fails, PM Khan might still call early elections, as has been indicated by Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad. “The possibility of early elections cannot be ruled out,” he has said. This scenario too suits the PML-N as recent by-elections in the Punjab have shown that the PTI has lost some of its popularity not only in the Punjab but in other provinces as well. It has lost all by-elections in the Punjab except one in Sialkot. Fresh elections are therefore on the top of the League’s wish list.

The PM and the government are struggling to hold on to their allies, the MQM, the BAP and the PMLQ. Attempts are on to appease the estranged Jehangir Tareen, reach out to Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan for his support and to motivate PTI supporters to reach Islamabad on March 27.

To counter these PTI moves, the PML-N is maintaining constant contact with its allies. It wants them to announce support for the no-confidence motion and has called a long march to Islamabad on March 26 that will be led by the League’s vice-president Maryam Nawaz.

As the PTI and the opposition show their political muscle in Islamabad, and if the situation remains peaceful, the constitution and the law will eventually take their course. Our democratic institutions will keep throwing up surprises, particularly for the rulers.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of    journalism, and    analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher