In a 3D chess board, the play is positioned on multiple levels. As the game advances, it becomes more complex than a traditional board. The current political dynamics in Pakistan similarly suggest an unusual situation with the king caught off-guard, his pawns turned against him and threatening to join the “other” side.

Politics is a game that permits the possibility of the unlikely. It’s very seldom that the players are aware of when the game slipped out of their control.

In the two weeks since the opposition alliance submitted a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, there’s been a flurry of activity. Several members of the ruling PTI have indicated that they intend to vote against the prime minister. They have vehemently denied ‘horse-trading’ however and claimed that they have only had a change of heart.

Political turmoil is anything but alien to the country’s democratic process. None of the country’s prime ministers have completed their terms. Only three out of 22 have made it to the fourth year.

And yet, for the country’s youth, this may be an introduction to the political mess.

Although political gurus predict various scenarios with changing dynamics, there has been a prophecy that Khan is going to be the first democratically elected premier to complete his term.

Hoping that the constitution will not be violated in the political mess, senior journalist Nasim Zehra told The News on Sunday (TNS) that it was unlikely that Khan would resign. “But, when it comes to politics, nobody shows all their cards till the last minute. Things will become clearer in the coming days. If we consider the number game, there is a possibility that some members of Khan’s own party vote against him.”

“Pakistan is caught up in a vicious cycle of power and politics,” she continues. “Even minor inputs are influencing the numbers. The master puppeteer never runs out of puppets.” She adds: “In politics, what goes around, comes around.”

No stone left unturned

Determined to stay put, Khan appears to be mulling over all conceivable options. A presidential reference has been made to the Supreme Court for tis opinion on Article 63-A which deals with the disqualification of parliamentarians over defection. He is also planning a show of power to reflect public support against the opposition alliance.

Amid all this, Khan insists that he is yet to play his trump card. Some political pundits have made speculated that he is referring to PML-N’s Chaudhry Nisar – whom he met recently.

“There are three types of players in this game. One is pulling the strings; another is desperate to return to power, not caring about right and wrong; the third is the public, flexing their support,” says Zehra.

“And then there are people like you and I – trying to make sense of it all by keeping our objectives straight and reporting facts.”

“I think this whole thing will come to an end on the last ball of the last over. Till then, we can come up with, and analyse, a lot of scenarios. The stakes are high.”

Other options?

If Khan wins the no-confidence vote, probably his first move will be to de-seat those who betrayed him. Although the ruling party initially reacted strongly to the defectors, it has since been on a truce-seeking path. Those who do not return to its fold, may not be welcome in the corridors of power again if incumbent government stays.

For Khan, there is also the option of early elections. A report by journalist Ansar Abbasi has said that the establishment is willing to mediate between the government and the opposition. Quoting sources, he wrote that if both sides agreed to negotiate terms, early elections could be considered.

No new development has been reported on this so far.

Speaking to TNS, political analyst Mujeeb ur Rehman Shami says if Khan fails the no-confidence test then a session of the assembly will be called to elect a new leader. “Since Shahbaz Sharif is the leader of the opposition, he too can be a candidate. If he gets the support from opposition alliance, he can win” he remarks.

However, most political observers believe that the deal is packaged.

Journalist Fahd Hussain, thinks that the members who vote to de-seat Khan will likely vote for Shahbaz. “The deal does not have to be one-track. If the premier does not survive the no-trust motion, then a coalition led by the PML-N will likely come into power.”

Hussain says the PTI’s position will remain weak even if Khan survives. “They do not need a majority only to win the no-confidence vote. There is also the House business in the pipeline, including the budget. If the sitting government does not have a working majority, they will not be able to pass the budget.”

“November is far away. We aren’t even sure about what will happen in the next three days. The PTI has to fight for its survival.”

Power show

There may have been revolutions like the Arab Spring and the public may have prevented a coup in Turkey, but in Pakistan, never has a government been saved through street power.

Prime ministers have been removed throughout Pakistan’s political history, no one has come on to the streets to their aid.

Khan may have garnered mammoth support in his election rallies but once the party comes into power and its policies start effecting the masses, the support wanes away.

Right after the National Assembly session, both the government and opposition called on their supporters to march to the federal capital and show their might. But will a public rally save their political ambitions? History doesn’t back this idea.

“Power shows have never saved leaders,” journalist Zarrar Khuro tells TNS. “It has always been a tactic to build a narrative and momentum ahead of polls. Workers and supporters are important on the field but there is no example in history that they can save a government.”

So, then why are the political parties urging their supporters to gather in the capital?

“It is just to pressure the dissident party members,” says Khuhro. “Seeing the ongoing situation though, it may backfire for Khan.”

“He is the Kaptaan and I think this whole thing would come to an end on the last ball of the last over. Till then, we can come up with and analyse a lot of scenarios. The stakes are high.”

The writer is a   freelance journalist and a former editor