Ano-trust motion against an elected chief executive is, by its very nature, a destabilising event. No wonder, the ensuing debate, or what passes for it, has generated more heat than light. But, leaving the immediate aside, what can one say about the system? In a stable equilibrium, as every mechanics student is taught, after a small disruption, things will return to the initial conditions – as we were, so to say. In a neutral equilibrium, a small disturbance will accomplish a small but irreversible displacement. It will not return to the original position; past is another realm. In case of an unstable equilibrium, a small disturbance causes a potentially catastrophic change. There is not only no going back; oftentimes there is also no telling where, if at all, a new equilibrium will be found.

In our Special Report this week, our analysts look at the medium term. There appears to be a fair amount of agreement that the major actors will be transformed less by the march of events and more by their own choices and devices.

While two-party systems have admirably served many developed societies and proved resilient, the formula is nowhere written in stone. Crises have a way of throwing up new parties or allowing small parties of the past to claim new and larger roles. So does voter dissatisfaction grown chronic and desperate. In the Pakistani context, the challenge of frequent elections from mid ’80s appeared to have favoured a trend towards marginalisation of small parties. But just as the analysts had started discussing the possibility of a stable two-party democracy, new parties were springing up, each championing a new narrative and addressing the concerns of an underserved demographic. Then there was another military coup and for a while all bets were off. Then a reconciliation, a major assassination and two elections later, we got a brand new single largest party in the parliament. So, are the circumstances ripe for some new groups to catch the imagination of a large enough constituency to meaningfully challenge those already in the fray?

An important concern for all stake holders in democracy is that while all this goes on the role of non-representative institutions as an arbiter of last resort will inevitably continue to expand. This development is not without perilous implications and consequences as the genie has always proved hard to return to the bottle where it is presumed to belong.