Bilawal Bhutto’s Awami Long March, one of the longest in the country’s history, has concluded with the submission of a no-confidence motion against the prime minister.

To many, not least leaders and supporters of his Pakistan Peoples Party, the march that commenced from Mazar-i-Quaid in Karachi on February 27 and concluded in Islamabad on March 8 represents the final battle against Prime Minister Imran Khan and his government.

Over the 10 days, the march passed through 37 cities in Sindh and the Punjab. It was the third longest march in Pakistan’s political history behind Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s campaign against Ayub Khan and Benazir Bhutto’s train march against Nawaz Sharif’s government, which also started in Karachi and ended in Rawalpindi. The symbolism was not lost on Bilawal who said in a speech that he expected a similar result. Earlier, on entering the Punjab, he had directed party stalwarts to reach Islamabad to move a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly.

His father, former president Asif Zardari, is seen as the architect of the no-confidence motion. Irked by the Bilawal-led march and Zardari’s meetings with leaders of various political parties including the PTI allies in the government, the PTI launched a parallel Aghaz-i-Haqooq-i-Sindh March of its own led by Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The march from Ghotki to Karachi was quite visible but appears to have made no practical difference. Prime Minister Imran Khan has taken the father-son campaign seriously. In his speech in Karachi on Wednesday, he sounded furious. “Now Zardari is my prime target. He is in my crosshairs,” said Khan.

When the opposition first indicated that it might try to remove the prime minister, some of the more vocal PTI ministers claimed that the opposition lacked the strength to undertake such a move. Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry, for instance, said a couple of weeks ago that the opposition was not capable of bringing such a motion. Now that a motion has been submitted in the National Assembly secretariat, he has said, “They should show 172 MNAs [in support of the motion] to the media.”

For now both sides are claiming majority support in the National Assembly and predicting victory. The PTI has apparently mooted multiple strategies. Federal Minister Asad Umer is reported to have said: “We have decided that only one of our MNAs will go to the National Assembly. The Speaker will ask the Opposition to prove its strength. None of the other MNAs from the PTI or allies will attend the session. The Speaker will apply the rule against floor crossing and de-seat any member who does not follow the plan.” This scheme is open to several legal and constitutional objections. However, irrespective of its merits, it is still a strategy.

The PTI leaders, including the prime minister, are meeting coalition partners and the party’s own MNAs and MPAs.

In what appears to be another strategy, several PTI leaders, including Khan, are meeting PTI allies the party’s own MNAs and MPAs in the Punjab. The increasing strength of Jehangir Tareen group has forced them to negotiate with those calling for the replacement of Chief Minister Usman Buzdar.

Khan has reiterated recently that he will not replace Buzdar. However, a highly informed PTI insider says, “In the wake of increasing uncertainty, the PM may be forced to accept the demands of the Tareen group and ask Buzdar to resign.”

If Khan concludes such a deal with the Tareen group he may end up annoying the PML-Q, which is seeking the CM’s office for Chaudhry Parvez Elahi. If the PML-Q joins hands with the Opposition in the National and Punjab Assemblies it can tilt the balance. Recent meetings between Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Asif Zardari and others have highlighted the possibility of PML-Q parting ways with the ruling alliance.

PM Khan has also met Muttahida Qaumi Movement leaders in Karachi and called leaders of Balochistan Awami Party. However, their responses do not appear to have been encouraging. Sardar Yar Muhammad Rind, the PTI parliamentary party leader in Balochistan Assembly too looks unhappy and has twice met Zardari.

There are also rumours another strategy: to round up MNAs from the opposition parties. According to credible sources, instructions have been issued to Anti-Corruption Establishment in the Punjab, the Punjab Police, the Islamabad Police and the Federal Investigation Agency to open the cases against the MNAs and arrest them. A team from the Anti-Corruption Department raided the residence of a PML-N MNA, Chaudhry Tanveer, on Wednesday but he was not home. Such a strategy can create more problems for the prime minister and lead to unrest.

For its part, some opposition leaders have asked Maulana Fazlur Rehman to provide security to opposition MNAs in Islamabad. Hundreds of baton-carrying activists of his JUI-F have reached Islamabad apparently to resist any move by the police to arrest the opposition parliamentarians.

Zardari, Shahbaz Sharif and Maulana Fazlur Rehman are in constant contact with the government allies and with Nawaz Sharif. “We will oust Imran Khan through the constitutional option of a no-confidence vote. We will surprise Khan and his bandwagon of ministers,” says Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, the former prime minister.

The week is crucial. The opposition has reached the point of no return. It has to make all efforts for the success of the no-confidence vote. PM Khan, for his part, has to watch his strength in the parliament. If the opposition loses this battle, PM Khan may consolidate his position in the coming months through important decisions. If the PM loses, his party might shrink to its 2011 dimensions.

The author is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher