Addressing the nation on February 28, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that the petroleum prices were being reduced by Rs 10 per litre and the electricity tariff by Rs 5 per unit. The decision came as a pleasant surprise to the inflation-hit populace, who had feared another surge in fuel prices as a result of rising oil prices in the international market.

The prime minister also promised not to raise fuel and electricity prices till the next budget, due in June. He said the government had also decided to raise the Ehsaas programme cash handouts from Rs 12,000 to Rs 14,000. He added that jobless graduates would be given internships and a stipend of Rs 30,000 a month — but did not specify the mechanism. He also announced a complete tax exemption for the IT sector — companies and freelancers — and said no foreign exchange restriction will be imposed on them. Moreover, IT startups will no longer have to pay the capital gains tax. Talking about industries, Khan said people seeking to install industries or invest in the country would not be “asked any questions.“ A comprehensive package to this end will be announced later. He also said overseas Pakistanis eyeing to invest in local industries will be given a five-year tax exemption. A total of 26,000 scholarships — costing Rs38 billion — will be provided for students, he said.

On March 2, he tweeted: “FBR has successfully knocked down Feb revenue target of Rs 441 billion, posting robust growth of 28.5 percent, and up to the month growth of over 30 percent. Because of this performance of FBR we are able to subsidise petrol, diesel and electricity and give relief to our people.”

However, the Opposition seemed unconvinced about the prime minister motive as well as his ability to deal with inflation. Reacting to the government measures, most opposition leaders cast doubt on the government’s ability to provide adequate subsidies on petroleum and electricity to be substantial relief for the citizens. They pointed out that the government was in the middle of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that imposed certain conditions, including cutting back on subsidies. Instead, they claimed, the prime minister was merely trying to buy time and save his government from the looming no-confidence motion and the impact of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) long march.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) information secretary Marriyum Aurangzeb claimed that the government was trying to save itself. However, she said, such measures could no longer save the government.

PML-N general secretary Ahsan Iqbal said that the government was trying to fool the nation by first raising the prices and then bringing them down. “First increase the price of petrol by Rs 20 and then announce a reduction of Rs 10. Then increase the price of electricity by Rs 6 per unit and then announce a reduction of Rs 5. Is someone fooling someone or trying to prove themselves stupid?” he tweeted.

Senator Sherry Rehman of the Pakistan Peoples Party said PM Imran Khan was feeling the heat of PPP’s Awami March. “IK just announced some small concessions on utility bills, petrol. Clearly feeling the heat. And it’s only Day 2 of this epic long march,” she tweeted after the speech.

Former finance minister Miftah Ismail asked whether economics had changed within the past few days. “Days ago the government raised petrol prices by Rs 12 and electricity prices by Rs 6. Today the government decreased their prices by Rs 10 and Rs 5. Did economics change in the last few days or was it politics? The PTI never had money to give relief to the people. But to save IK’s job it finds a way!” he tweeted.

According to some analysts, it appears that the prime minister has decided to breach the IMF agreement in the wake of popular outcry. He may have taken this step to cool down the political temperature.

He and his aides try to give the impression that they do not feel threatened by the Opposition. However, the IMF might react to this decision. Pakistan has so far received around half of the $6 billion IMF loan. The rest is due by the first quarter of 2023. It is known that the IMF does not like subsidy-heavy economies. It has stressed during each round of negotiations that the government should withdraw subsidies. Pakistan has promised to do that but always returned to square one. The prime minister intends to announce some more decisions in this vein, like more subsidies on wheat that may jeopardise the agreement with the IMF.

The Opposition seems unconvinced about the PM’s motive and his ability to deal with inflation. Reacting to the recent government announcement, most opposition leaders cast doubt on the government’s capacity to provide adequate subsidy on petroleum and electricity. They point out that the government is in the middle of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that imposes certain conditions, including cutting back on subsidies.

On the other hand, the opposition parties are keen to remove Khan. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto is leading a long march that started from Karachi on February 27, a day before the PM announced reduction in the petrol and electricity prices, and has entered the Punjab. His father Asif Zardari is, apparently, planning a no-confidence motion. He is holding meetings with various groups including some allies of the government. He has met Shahbaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Jamaat-i-Islami ameer Sirajul Haq, Chaudhry Shujaat and Pervaiz Elahi, allies of the government and several others.

PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif has also met a Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM) delegation, Sardar Akhtar Mengal of Balochistan National Party (BNP)-Mengal, once a PTI ally in the government. Shahbaz’ stunner was his visit to see the Chaudhris of Gujrat. This was their first formal meeting after 14 years.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman is addressing various rallies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Punjab and Sindh to motivate his supporters and the masses.

Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi is also leading a Save Sindh March, started from Ghotki where he has a large support-base. The prime minister visited Lahore and met legislators of his party from the Punjab and announced an industrial policy, giving tax exemptions to overseas Pakistanis and the IT sector, while addressing the business community in Lahore.

He then went to inquire about the health of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain at his residence. Media reports after his visit to the Chaudhris suggested that they had told him not to worry. But, a PML-Q stalwart Tariq Bashir Cheema said nothing was discussed in the meeting between Khan and the Chaudhris.

MQM, another government ally, is also giving mixed signals. Sometimes, its leaders urge the PM to deliver for the masses’ welfare and sometimes they express solidarity with him.

According to credible sources, Asif Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and leaders of some other opposition parties have agreed to fresh elections after ousting Khan through a no-confidence motion.

PDM’s president Maulana Fazlur Rehman told media on March 2 that the opposition could move the no-confidence motion in two days. On Thursday, some PDM and PPP insiders said a draft of the motion had been prepared and circulated for further discussion by party leaders.

Former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi has said that the opposition does not need the PML-Q for the success of its no-confidence motion.

Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed has said that the opposition will not table the motion and that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) will not launch its march. “Imran Khan might go for a political bang against the opposition.” The statement was taken as a hint that the prime minister might dissolve the National Assembly. However, if the opposition submits the no-confidence motion, the prime minister will be unable under law to advise the president to dissolve the assembly.

The reduction in the oil prices and electricity tariffs may not be enough. The PM will have to do something political and popular. On the other hand, a successful long march alone is not enough to oust the prime minister. Only a successful no-confidence motion can do so.

The author is a senior journalist, teacher of     journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher