Ever since the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) announced its plan to table a no-trust motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, there has been intense political activity in the corridors of power. The opposition leaders are trying to court disgruntled members of the ruling coalition. The government leaders too are trying to line up their supporters.

On February 11, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the PDM chairperson, had announced that the opposition alliance had decided to oust the prime minister through a no-trust motion. The strategic consensus had been made possible after former president Asif Ali Zardari and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari met Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) president Shehbaz Sharif and vice president Maryam Nawaz in Lahore. On February 13, Sharif met Chaudhris Shujaat Hussain and Parvez Elahi after a hiatus of 14 years. The meeting between the PML-N delegation and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid leaders lasted for an hour and a half. Earlier on February 8, a delegation from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), another crucial government ally, had also met Shehbaz Sharif at his residence.

The opposition’s focus on the PML-Q and the MQM-P makes it clear that the two government allies are integral to its move against the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government.

The opposition faces an uphill task in the National Assembly.

The only no-confidence motion in the National Assembly was moved against Shaheed Benazir Bhutto in 1989. Despite all efforts by the PML, the MQM, the ANP, the JI and President Ghulam Ishaq Khan the resolution had failed. Instead, the PPP government had ended up with four more votes than its original strength.

The opposition leaders had earlier taken their voters to Murree to ensure that they would all be present in the House for the vote. The treasury members, on the other hand, had been taken to Swat under the supervision of Chief Minister Aftab Sherpao. Several unsung supporters had done heir bit to help the PPP carry the day. One of them was late Chaudhry Anwar Aziz (father of the PML-N leader Daniyal Aziz). He had been an opposition in those days but supported the prime minister. He also persuaded two of his colleagues to support the government. He asked nothing in return. He got nothing. During a conversation a few months before his death, Aziz had said, “I supported Benazir because she was the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the politician I most loved.”

Another person who played an important role in foiling the opposition’s bid was late Khaled Ahmed Khan Kharal. He ensured that there were no turncoats in the Punjab PPP. Recounting the episode years later, former PPP lawmaker Shahadat Baloch had said: “I received a tempting offer from the opposition at that time. But my conscience stopped me from falling for the offer. I stood with Benazir Bhuttto and I stood with the state.” The major factor behind the PPP’s success was the loyalty of its MNAs.

The PDM is also considering the possibility of a no-trust motion against the Punjab chief minister. Given the slim majority of the PTI-led coalition and the relative strength of the PML-N in the provincial assembly this might have a better chance of succeeding.

The only no confidence motion in the National Assembly was moved against Shaheed Benazir Bhutto in 1989. Despite all efforts by the PML, the MQM, the ANP, the JI and President Ghulam Ishaq Khan the resolution failed. Instead, the PPP government ended up with four more votes than its original strength.

The first no-confidence motion in the Punjab was moved against late Ghulam Haider Wyne on April 25, 1993. Out of the 248 MPAs, 150 moved the resolution. The vote became a heated affair and some of the MPAs threw chairs, shoes, microphones and paper-weights at one another. Ultimately, Mian Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, the PA speaker, became the Punjab chief minister. The PPP had then supported Wattoo’s PML-Junejo. President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, who had earlier removed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and dissolved the National Assembly by invoking his power under Article 58 (2) b had stood firmly behind Wattoo.

The opposition’s success in the Punjab was largely due to the support of the president and the state institutions encouraging the PML dissidents to act decisively against their leadership.

In the current political scenario, the opposition has yet to reveal the details of how it wants to proceed with the no-trust motions. Zardari, whose PPP will start its long march on February 27, had earlier advised the PDM leaders and Nawaz Sharif to move a no-confidence motion in the Punjab first. He had argued that once the opposition won the Punjab, the chances of success in the National Assembly would improve.

On February 17, PML-N vice president Maryam Nawaz said that the people of Pakistan were looking towards the opposition. “The risk has to be taken. A no-trust motion should come now. All the political parties, including the government’s allies, must respond to the call of the people.”

Hamza Shehbaz, the leader of the opposition in the Punjab Assembly, has claimed that his party is in contact with Jehangir Khan Tareen. Although Tareen is no longer a member of the National Assembly, he has the support of several PTI lawmakers, mostly in the Punjab Assembly.

On the other hand, PM Khan and his party are not sitting idle. The PM has started contacting his allies. He too is reported to have re-established contact with Tareen. He has also started addressing public rallies to contact the masses, distributing awards amongst ‘top performers’ in his cabinets to improve the impression about his government.

The government has also decided to address the concern of its allies, especially the MQM-P and the PML-Q. Moonis Elahi, a PML-Q leader and federal minister, has reiterated his party’s support for the government. Prime Minister Imran Khan has since stated that he has full confidence in the Chaudhry brothers.

Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Chaudhry Fawad Hussain recently said that the opposition will be unable to move a no-confidence resolution against the government. “The corrupt have united against the democratically elected government. They are bound to meet the same fate as they don’t stand on their own feet.”

It appears to be a do or die situation for both sides. If the opposition brings the motion and is defeated, it will be unlikely to recover from the blow until the next elections. If it succeeds, many PTI bigwigs might join other parties ahead of the next elections.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher