The recent meeting between Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party’s top guns in Lahore has induced a storm on Pakistan’s political horizon. Leaders, political pundits and analysts have called the meeting between the two sides an extraordinary activity that might bear fruit in the coming weeks in the form of a political change either in the Punjab or at the Centre.

Former president Asif Zardari and PPP chairperson Bilawal Bhutto met Shahbaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shahbaz in Lahore last week. The PPP leaders’ meeting with Shahbaz Sharif is a stunner after the party’s exit from the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Briefing the media after the meeting in the presence of Maryam and Bilawal, Sharif said, “It is the time to get rid of Imran Khan to save the country and its people. Therefore, we gathered here to discuss the constitutional ways to oust him.” He indicated that the meeting was held on the instruction of Nawaz Sharif. His statement gave the impression that Nawaz Sharif might be in contact with Asif Zardari. PPP and PML-N stalwarts, who don’t want to be named, have said that Zardari and Nawaz have been in direct contact.

Nawaz Sharif, talking to the media last week, uttered the words: “Now, we will have to get rid of Imran Khan for the sake of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan”.

Though leaders from either side have not revealed details of the meeting, a couple of insiders speaking to The News on Sunday (TNS) claim that the two sides discussed the possibility of a successful no-confidence motion at the federal level and in the Punjab.

“The two sides agreed that a change of prime minister is not enough and agreed that a change of government be brought about in the Punjab through a no-confidence motion,” says a PML-N insider privy to the details.

Asif Zardari reiterated his formula for bringing about a change in the Punjab and the Centre through no-confidence motions. Earlier on, he had presented this formula at the PDM’s summit held in Lahore. The PDM leadership had then urged the PPP to tender resignations from all assemblies. The deadlock and misunderstanding following it had led to the exit of the PPP and the Awami National Party from the PDM.

The meeting was followed by several other political developments. These included Zardari’s meeting with Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi, an MQM delegation’s meeting with Shahbaz Sharif and Prime Minister Khan’s decision to contact people of Pakistan through public rallies. Some political observers find particularly intriguing Hamza Shahbaz’ telephonic contact with Moonis Elahi, the son of Pervaiz Elahi, and a minister in the PM Khan’s cabinet. This might indicates that the PML-N is willing to establish a political relationship with the PML-Q. Several important meetings between opposition parties and the government allies are expected in the coming days. PM Khan’s move to address public rallies to focus attention on the Pakistani people may have been be an outcome of concerns raised by these meetings. He addressed his first rally in Faisalabad on Wednesday where he once again expressed support for Chief Minister Usman Buzdar in his speech by saying: “A neutral umpire should be assigned to judge Buzdar’s performance.”

His statement is a clear indication that he is aware of the opposition parties’ moves against him and Buzdar. He looks more concerned about Buzdar because a change in the Punjab could pave the way for a change in the federal government.

Under the PPP-PML-N strategy, likely to be supported by parties comprising the PDM, the opposition will first seek a change in the Punjab. Before that, the PPP will start its long-march from Karachi on February 27 to mount pressure on the government and to attract its dissident workers and leaders. A no-confidence resolution is likely to be moved in the Punjab against Buzdar during the log march. If the move succeeds, as the opposition leaders hope, the passage of no-confidence motion in the National Assembly will become easier. Talking to TNS, the leaders of the opposition parties say that they believe that the PDM might not have to go launch its long march after all.

Asked about the likelihood of a no-confidence motion being successful given that the opposition parties were unable to block the approval of the mini-budget and State Bank of Pakistan Amendment Bill in the National Assembly and the Senate, where they have a nominal majority, they say that the opposition parties knew that approval of those bills was state necessity hence. That was the reason they did not resist them with all their strength. They claim that the no-confidence motion too is a state necessity, and that for this reason several PTI members and allies will join them.

The question that arises next is: What will happen if the PM Khan is ousted from his office? There is the possibility that an interim PM will be named from one of the opposition parties and will advise the president for dissolution of the National Assemblies and the fresh elections demanded by the PDM, the PPP and the ANP.

On the other hand, a PTI insider tells TNS that PM Khan has sensed the direction of these moves and therefore decided to launch a mass-contact campaign through public rallies. He will try to muster support against the opposition parties. These rallies can also be seen as a head start to the PTI’s campaign for the next elections.

The coming days will be crucial for the government as well as the opposition. None of them can afford a setback at this point in time. If the opposition loses, it will suffer a serious blow in the next elections; if Khan is ousted, his party will suffer.

The author is a senior journalist, teacher of    journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher