The abrupt change of the entire political system in Afghanistan has left almost everyone in shock, perhaps even those who made it to the victory of sorts. Afghanistan has never been a convenient place for political activities – neither for foreigners nor the locals.

The principal question arising out of all this tragic charade is how all the institutions built through investing huge amounts of resources with the help of the entire international community went down the drain in a couple of weeks, if not days.

Well, the theories are numerous depending on which side of the ideological spectrum one belongs to, either consciously or unconsciously. Furthermore, why is there such a keen interest among Pakistanis about the happenings in Afghanistan?

Since the accurate motives of different stakeholders and accurate facts are yet to be ascertained, one is left with deducing the reality from bits and pieces of the past and present. Objectivity is perhaps the first victim during the chaos.

The US invaded Afghanistan after the events of 9/11 to tackle al-Qaida and during the course of eradicating the principal adversary, also ousted the then ruling regime named the Taliban on the plea that they won’t give up their guests who were wanted in terrorist activities. Al-Qaida along with the Taliban left Kabul for the mountains of Afghanistan and across the borders as well.

NATO asked the allies for support. Our ruler Gen Musharraf received a threat-call from the US for whether to toe the line and become party in the Afghan invasion or to get ready for the dark ages. The General complied accordingly and kept convincing us that there was no other option.

Anyhow, it was a typical ride on the roller coaster afterwards where almost each and every stakeholder suffered. We all carry our scars irrespective of the blames and counter blames. An entire generation of Afghans and North western Pakistan grew up with a hope for peace and prosperity at the end of this tortuous path.

The talks were going on in Doha and there were also back door negotiations among the stakeholders, primarily the US and the Taliban. The premise of entire process was to end violence and move forward in an inclusive and democratic manner. Taliban were offered a general amnesty if they forgo violence and become part of the political system by registering as a political party and contest elections. Taliban, however, wanted all of the cake, claiming to be the actual government who were ousted from the throne of Kabul.

Some agreement was reached in Doha; the US left abruptly which ensued brief clashes between the Afghan forces and Taliban here and there. While people were trying to understand the nature and degree of these battles and some even wooing the US to stay back till things get under control, Taliban captured Kabul and an elected President was sent on a forced exile.

Interestingly, no war was fought for the throne of Kabul, not even any battle in the provinces. It was a smooth sail for the Taliban from Kandahar till Kabul and even at Herat and Mazar Sharif. The entire force of three hundred thousand soldiers having state-of-the-art training and weapons simply gave a walk over to the Taliban. Why?

It was all staged a show. It was a regime change of a unique kind, where an enemy is chosen over the ally. President Ghani wanted an independent Afghanistan and conveyed it to all international stakeholders.

A theocratic dictatorship under the Taliban or a civil war will be disastrous for Afghanistan and the region, especially Pakistan. All the stakeholders must strive for peace, inclusivity and democracy. The people of Afghanistan must organise politically.

The people of Afghanistan are back to square one and all that is left is despondency. No needs to dilate upon the events of the people fleeing via airplanes or bribing the agents on the borders to flee the impending economic cum food crisis. We expect generosity from Europe yet have different standards at home. They simply can’t reconcile with the fact that the people they fought for years simply took over the charge of even those institutions built and manned by them.

The Taliban are trying to appease the populace and spending all their energies on building better public relations. It’s too complicated given their track record and their interpretation of Sharia, which is very much different from the one subscribed by the educated middle class and even the code of Pashtunwali dominant in the rural areas. All they lack is trust and popularity which is the bedrock for any government, especially the one in such a volatile region.

The Taliban, too, have gained much politically but compromised much ideologically. If it’s the US backing them directly or indirectly in order to contain China/Iran/USSR or simply to leave the region to its fate, Taliban have to prove it to the people of Afghanistan. They can’t pay lip-service and tout it as a victory; certain actions have to be taken to dilute this narrative.

Pakistan’s strength has been its influence in northern Afghanistan and on Taliban like other Pashtun leaders who have lived and settled here one way or the other. However, Pakistan’s stance at Doha and at other forums was for an inclusive set-up comprising all the stakeholders. It knew that a monolith set-up of the Taliban or even of some other party devoid of Taliban won’t work. Pakistan’s counsel was ignored.

Despite the allegations of supporting a proxy war so as to contain India’s influence against Pakistan, the present regime change is not in consonance with its national interest.

The surprising matter, however, is the support of Taliban’s victory in Pakistan. The government is silent and bidding its time yet the people nurtured in obscurantist values responded with glee and forgot all that happened to them over the last two decades. It’s about 70,000 deaths and billions in collateral damage. They would support a democracy over here, yet celebrate the fall of a democratic dispensation there. The matter here is not of ideology.

Every citizen in Pakistan or Afghanistan can subscribe to any school of thought, be it of right or left, yet inclusivity and democracy are universal values. Taliban may contest elections and form a government akin to MMA in KP who came through a popular vote, not guns. The government of Pakistan must look into this case of cognitive dissonance. It’s alarming and perhaps the major take away for Pakistan must be the revelation of this ailment.

Ashraf Ghani left as a disappointed man whose theories of development couldn’t work and succumbed to the eternal curse of geography. He was hoodwinked by his own team who managed the whole show of talks and surrenders. Amrullah Saleh declared himself the President and avowed to launch an armed resistance, with many former warlords and even commanders of the Afghan National Army responding to his call.

Meanwhile, Taliban are busy in giving interviews and visiting places to get a modicum of support for their rule. Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Gulbadin Hikmatyar are trying to stay relevant and get some share in any future set-up.

The way forward, however, is crucial for the whole region. The purpose must be to ensure peace, and not to get into proxy wars leading to a civil war in Afghanistan. If the Afghans are not satisfied with the rule, they better organise politically. Peaceful protests and political activities will benefit them, not further bloodshed and wars.

Times have changed and so have the political dynamics. Pakistan should continue lobbying for a peaceful and inclusive Afghanistan besides putting in efforts to support the Afghan population in humanitarian terms. The OIC session at Islamabad should have at least extended explicit support to the Afghan people with a clear plan of action, if they are averse to openly recognising the new regime.

If the US wants to wash this stain of wasting 20 years, they too better be part of the process of transition. A theocratic dictatorship under the Taliban or a civil war will be disastrous for Afghanistan and the region, especially Pakistan. All the stakeholders must strive for peace, inclusivity and democracy. The people of Afghanistan must organise politically and say a big NO to wars, even against their arch rivals of all shades. As for the Taliban, they better give a chance to democracy and inclusivity, if they want the world to believe in their narrative of transformation.

The writer tweets @fahadikramqazi1