The turn of the year is a popular time for undertaking introspection, an analysis of what went wrong during the previous year and a making a commitment for course correction in the next year. It is also a time for big dreams.

This is as true on a personal level as it is on the national level. The year 2021 was eventful; Covid-19 continued to plague public health and public finances. On the economic front, skyrocketing prices of essential commodities kept most Pakistanis in deep trouble. On the political front, the year was as lackluster as the previous years of the current government. The incumbents made no significant headway towards reducing corruption, promoting justice and ending impunity for the corrupt. It continued to flounder under the weight of its inconsistencies, ironies and poor governance.

Despite the odds stacked against them, Pakistanis are resilient. They are also happier than many nations in similar economic straitjackets. If capitalised on wisely, this resilience could help the nation jumpstart its journey on a development trajectory. Almost everyone has their vision of taking the country out of the quagmire. Degrees of realism, feasibility and practicality vary. Few people are inclined to look at Pakistan’s problems in a holistic manner.

A majority of the people believe in miracles and quick fixes. They pay little attention to the constraints that are just as much a reality as the problems they focus on. In judging their ideal solutions, one must also look at the constraints that frustrate the efforts to determine the type of constrained optimisation that is possible in the current circumstances.

As a new year starts, everybody is inclined to dream big. People may have vastly different views about the ideal situation to start with but a dialogue can hopefully result in a broad agreement on the way forward.

A critical appraisal of national history suggests that, in an ideal situation, all the national institutions will perform their functions strictly within their constitutionally mandated spheres. Political stability will be the order of the day. The masses will firmly believe in the transparency and impartiality of the election commission and the sanctity of every single vote will be acknowledged.

Public interest and national goals will take precedence over narrow, vested interests. Foreign policy will be geared towards achieving peace and stability with a view to expand the opportunities for the common people.

The country will be at peace with its neighbours and choose neutrality vis-à-vis regional and supra-regional disputes. It will no longer be a security state. The defence expenditure will be a minuscule fraction of the GDP. There will be adequate investment in human capital. Maintenance of high standards in education and health care will be assigned the highest national priority. Economic productivity will increase; innovation and entrepreneurship will be promoted. A vast export base will make the country a geo-economic power.

Crime will be unheard of. The public will trust the credibility, effectiveness and impartiality of the judicial system.

People will enjoy complete freedom of speech. There will be no discrimination based on religious beliefs or ethnic identity.

Many more people now know the reality of the same page paradigm and its implications for the public. Many more people now know about the malpractices, abuse of power and encroachment on constitutional limits.

We know that we are not living in an ideal world and that serious constraints obstruct the journey towards achieving our objectives. Conventional wisdom says that all happy people are alike but unhappy people may have unique and diverse problems and challenges. In the same way, wealthy nations may share a lot of characteristic but almost all developing countries have their unique sets of problems and challenges.

Whether the national governments are truly representative of the public will or not has long been a matter of debate in Pakistan. There is a perception, and not without good reason, that some extra-constitutional activity shapes the outcome of the elections at the cost of public mandate. There have hardly been any elections in Pakistan of which the transparency and impartiality has not been questioned. It is obvious that when the governments do not derive their strength from a clear public mandate, they are not expected to cater to the interests of the public either. The real issues of the masses get swept under the rug.

With a new year upon us, let’s look at some of the perennial problems of Pakistan: poverty, unemployment, a high population growth rate, poor quality of human capital, low educational attainment, rote learning, largely unproductive and misdirected higher education and poor health. Poverty and low quality of human capital often lead to lawlessness, including violent crimes and widespread drug use.

Also, national policies are not geared to serve public interests and visibly promote narrow, vested interests. Because governments in a democratic dispensation face the public, at least at the time of elections, their efforts are focused on creating an impression of development that may not actually exist on the ground.

The government has recently come up with its National Security Policy which places economic security at the heart of national security. While the government is in a self-congratulatory mode and has been lauding itself for coming up with this piece of wisdom, people on the streets do not seem impressed. To them the role of economy in national security is self-evident.

Elected governments may go to any extreme to create an impression of development. Selling the flagship projects of previous governments as their own is a small part of the game. The impression of development is reinforced with the help of acquiescing and pliant mainstream media, and artificially generated “trends” on social media. A more sinister form of diverting the public opinion is to generate disputes and stoke unrest. The creation and nurturing of political parties to exploit religious and ethnic fault lines has considerably weakened Pakistan.

Some other constraints are rooted in Pakistan’s political and institutional landscape. A number of political parties and leaders are available to facilitate dictators and charlatans. A skewed distribution of power among the national institutions frustrates the objectives of across-the-board accountability and equality before law.

Given the constraints embedded in the body politic of Pakistan, what changes can take place in 2022 and be sustained afterwards? What can catalyse those changes? What can be consciously done to achieve the ideal conditions in Pakistan? It must be understood that with the odds stacked against the people, the space for manoeuvre is extremely limited. But such space is always there.

Nothing can be more relevant in Pakistan than the adage that you cannot fool all the people all the time. Decades of behind-the-scenes machinations and their consequences for the public welfare have made Pakistanis more discriminating in their judgment. A new political consciousness has emerged, spurred in no small measure by social media.

Many more people now know the reality of the same page paradigm and its implications for the public. Many more people now know about the malpractices and abuse of power and trespass on constitutional limits. And people are more vocal about the undesirability of dynastic politics. There is a clearer understanding of how religion has been used in the past to achieve political objectives.

This consciousness has been expanding despite the efforts to get the media and stifle the voices of dissent, and it is “communicable”. Many more people are now willing to speak the truth irrespective of the consequences. These are the signs of a new and better Pakistan.

As regards the question of what can be done in the face of challenging constraints, the first thing is the understanding that Pakistan has to fight a protracted battle to set right the balance of power. No quick fixes will do. At the aggregate level, having the courage to cry foul is going to be the most decisive factor in getting us closer to our goals. At the personal level, a firm commitment to serve the cause of truth irrespective of the price it entails and supporting all those who stand for the cause of truth, can make the difference. The sooner, the better.

The writer is an assistant    professor in the Department of Economics at COMSATS   University Islamabad, Lahore Campus