Political parties, it appears, are setting themselves new goals for the year 2022. The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) will try to consolidate its position in a bid to complete its five-year term under Imran Khan. On the other hand, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an eight-party alliance, spearheaded by the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Awami National Party (ANP), will try to oust Khan.

Surviving under immense pressure from various sides, the PTI is struggling to overcome economic, political and law and order issues in the country. Inflation, price-hikes and shortage of gas are PM Khan’s biggest enemies. His speeches before the 2018 general election had painted a very rosy picture of a new Pakistan under his leadership. The government’s performance so far has left his team on the defensive.

Some PTI leaders express dissatisfaction with their own government’s performance in off-the-record conversations but are compelled to defend the government on media and public forums. “In a meeting, I clearly told Khan that the price hike will erode our vote bank but the PM was not ready to accept that assessment. The results of the local government elections in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have vindicated me,” a PTI stalwart tells The News on Sunday on the condition of anonymity.

The PM still maintains that losing a majority of constituencies in the recent polls has been an outcome of poor distribution of party tickets. “I will personally look after the distribution of tickets in the future,” he tweeted after the polls.

The PM has also appointed new party chiefs in the provinces. However, many of the party’s supporters have serious reservations against most of them. It has been pointed out that they have not been very visible recently at the grassroots level.

The government is also going to levy new taxes in what it is being called a ‘mini budget’ in a few days to get a $1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This will further raise the prices and antagonise more people. Having gone through several financial wizards, the economic policies of the government still seem reactionary and ad hoc at best.

The major challenges that the PTI faces in 2022 are local government elections in the Punjab, a PML-N stronghold; the second phase of local elections in the KP; PDM’s long march; pacifying the inflation hit populace and keeping intact his alliance with the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid, the GDA and the MQM.

Another challenge for the prime minister will be appointment of the next army chief when Gen Bajwa retires in November 2022. He will have to announce the name for Bajwa’s successor well before his retirement.

Since the PTI government has nothing in its pocket to provide any major relief to the people of Pakistan in the remaining year and a half, it will continue with its policy of making tall claims and accusing the opposition parties, mainly the PML-N and the PPP for the current economic situation in the country.

On the other hand, the PML-N is gearing up to go on the offensive. It has managed to create an impression that its supremo Nawaz Sharif has been victimised and that he might return from the UK. This has apparently unnerved the PTI. Its bandwagon of ministers, advisers and spokespersons has claimed that Sharif has been told by the UK government to leave. The fact is that Sharif’s appeal for extension in his visa has yet to be decided. The decision may take several months.

The PML-N appears to be spreading such rumours to gauge the mood of the masses. These have made waves in the affidavit regarding the former chief justice’s interest in the case against Sharif and his daughter.

According to sources close to the government, when the prime minister was informed during a cabinet meeting that the conviction of Sharif and Maryam could be nullified on legal grounds, he remarked that in that case all criminals should be released and nobody should be kept in jails.

The major challenges that the PTI faces in 2022 are local government elections in the Punjab, a PML-N stronghold; the second phase of local government elections in the KP; the PDM’s long march; pacifying the inflation-hit populace; and holding on to its allies, the PML-Q, the GDA and the MQM.

The PML-N will likely keep highlighting Rana Shamim’s affidavit and demand fair and free election during 2022. The PML-N has apparently shelved the idea of an in-house change and decided to stick to its demand for a ‘credible election’.

The reports about Sharif’s return remain an enigma as none of the PML-N stalwarts has said anything clearly. Instead, the League appears to be focusing on the second phase of KP local polls in January where it is hoping win some districts with help from the JUI-F. It has also started preparing for local government elections in the Punjab, likely to be held in March or April.

The JUI F, another major component of the PDM, is in extremely high spirits after winning 20 tehsils in 17 districts of KP in the local polls and becoming the largest party in the phase one. Its chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, is currently calling the shots in the PDM along with Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz.

The PDM is also working around a one-point agenda of free and fair elections. It has announced a long march and asked its supporters to reach D-Chowk, Islamabad, on March 23. Pakistan holds a military parade at Constitution Avenue to celebrate Pakistan Day every year. The decision has unnerved some PTI leaders. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid has urged the PDM to change the date of the proposed long march. Federal Minister Asad Umer has said that the government will not let the march participants to enter Islamabad and Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry has predicted that the PDM will change the date.

“If the opposition manages to put enough pressure on the prime minister and other movers and shakers of the power politics for early elections, the PML-N and the JUI-F will go for seat adjustments in KP, Sindh and Balochistan,” PML-N sources say. In the Punjab, the PML-N will take a solo flight.

After the long march, the PDM might consider resignations from the National and Provincial Assemblies. That will be a severe blow to the government as it seems hard for it to keep its support among the masses. Such a move can provide ground to more people to join hands with the opposition parties.

The PPP, the only opposition party running a provincial government, has recently observed the 14th death anniversary of Shaheed Benazir Bhutto at Garhi Khuda Bakhsh, Larkana, where it put up a good show of power. On January 5, it will observe the birth anniversary of its founder Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has already announced that his grandfather’s birth anniversary shall be celebrated in Lahore, where Bhutto had launched the PPP.

The spirits are high in the PPP following its surprisingly good performance in the by-elections in Lahore and Khanewal. It is after about half a decade that PPP candidates have been runners up in elections in these areas. The PPP leaders believe that they can attract back its electables and supporters from the PTI in the Punjab and KP. Meanwhile, its vote bank is intact in Sindh.

There was a strong impression recently that the PPP was in negotiations with the ‘power-house’ of Pakistan’s politics. However, first, Asif Zardari sought to dispel the impression by saying, “We have asked them to get rid of the selected and then talk to us.” Later, while addressing supporters at Garhi Khuda Bukhsh, Bilawal Bhutto said: “the PPP does not believe in striking a deal with anybody but the people of Pakistan. We will strike a deal with the people to end poverty.” He said that the PPP will start a people’s movement to get rid of Khan’s government.

The PPP is clearly focusing on the next general elections. It wants to gain a foothold in the Punjab. With this in mind, it plans to launch a mass contact campaign. It will also go to work soon on its dissidents, who left the party in the past and have joined the PTI and the PML-N. The PPP is also planning to attract the youth that constitutes the largest chunk of the voters.

The PML-Q is also eyeing the centre stage. Despite the fact that it is a government ally, in a recent statement Salik Hussain, a National Assembly member and son of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, expressed concern over the price hike. This was an intriguing statement. At the moment, the PML-Q is in contact with the PML-N and the PPP and still shares power with the PTI in Islamabad and Lahore. In future, it may agree to seat adjustments with the PPP.

Meanwhile, two factions of the MQM are trying to get the ban on Altaf Hussain’s speeches overturned. A petition is likely to be filed in this regard soon. Insiders say that Altaf Hussain still calls the shots in MQM Pakistan’s affairs.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher