The pledges have lacked a long-term plan on how the parties would be shifting away from coal
There has been a breakthrough of sorts on coal, the single biggest contributor to global warming. At least 23 countries have made new commitments at the Conference of Parties (COP26) to phase-out coal power. They include South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Poland and Ukraine, which are among the top 20 coal power generating countries. Nations like Egypt, Spain, Nepal, Singapore and Chile have also made new commitments towards moving away from coal. China, Japan and South Korea have also resolved to end overseas coal financing. In addition, a group of 25 countries including COP26 partners Italy, Canada, the United States and Denmark, together with public finance institutions, have signed a UK-led joint statement committing to end international public support for the unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022, and instead prioritising support for clean energy transition.
At least 20 new countries, including Vietnam, Morocco, Poland, Pakistan, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Chile, Montenegro, and European partners have announced that they will not be building any new coal power plants. Pakistan, not one of the major polluters, has pledged to shift to 60 percent renewable energy sources by 2030.
Banks and institutions, including major international lenders like the HSBC, the Fidelity International and Ethos have committed themselves to ending funding for projects related to coal power by the end of 2021. A 190-strong coalition has agreed to phase out coal power and end funding for new coal power projects.
According to the Energy Transitions Commission, the world needs to cut carbon dioxide emissions from 43 gigatons to around 21 gigatons by 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a Paris Agreement requirement.
All new commitments are to be met by 2030, in some cases 2040. In case of China, it’s 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality. Can the world wait that long? Clearly, the answer is no.
Shifting away from coal is very challenging, especially when it comes to producing electricity. In the year 2019 alone, 37 percent of the global electricity demand was met through coal. Ending coal by 2030 means the world must look for affordable alternatives. There are almost always power issues in developing and underdeveloped nations. However, this year there were power shortages even in the United States. The higher demand of electricity was due to increasing heatwaves and forest fires in the US.
Political commitment is another challenge. Some of the major coal dependent economies have not signed the pledge to stop using coal. These include China, India and the US. As per estimates of BP’s 2021 World Energy Statistical Review, China’s share of global consumption in the year 2020 was 54.3 percent, India’s 11.6 percent and the United States’ 6.1 percent. China says it will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. For now, it is expanding its domestic coal power generation.
Finance is another challenge. South Africa has signed a $8.5 billion deal for transition to clean energy. Pakistan requires $101 billion for its clean energy transition by 2030. The United Kingdom has pledged £55 million for Pakistan to build climate resilience, water governance and innovative solutions. This doesn’t include funds for ending coal.
Capacity is no more an issue for moving away from coal and investing in clean energy sources. Retraining and re-skilling of workers in coal sector is a challenge. They shouldn’t be left jobless in the process of transition. Effective and inclusive social dialogues between governments and workers are an important part of such a transition process.
The pledges lack a comprehensive long-term plan on how the parties would be shifting away from coal. Even the pledging countries appear to lack clarity on how they would be achieving their short-term targets by 2030. Many do not know how they would be meeting their electricity demands. Electricity produced from renewable resources has its own challenges. The biggest polluters, China and the US, have not signed the pledge for ending coal use. China’s plan to achieve net zero neutrality is by 2060, which is more than three decades away.
It can be argued that every party must pledge on an annual basis instead of waiting for five years. The Nationally Determined Contributions should be revised yearly and updated. The year 2021 has already seen glaciers melting in South Asia and Canada; heatwaves in South Asia as well as Europe and America; wildfires in several states of America, Australia and Turkey; flooding in Pakistan, India, Germany, and Belgium. These and many other climate disasters should be a wakeup call for every country.
The author is an environmental expert at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. She tweets at @S_Maryam8.