Ali Tauqeer Sheikh is the principal author of Pakistan’s Updated Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs, just submitted to the Climate Change Secretariat of the United Nations. This document is expected to guide Pakistan’s climate change agenda to 2030, when a revised document will be submitted to the UNFCC. He is presently serving as advisor on climate change at the Planning Commission of Pakistan. He also serves on the board of National Disaster Risk Management Fund (NDRMF) and several other institutions. Sheikh has served on several national commissions and international committees including the Advisory Group on Learning and Evaluation and the Transformational Change and Learning Partnership (TCLP), both set-up by the Climate Investment Fund (CIF), on behalf of the World Bank and other multilateral development banks.

Below, a conversation with the environmental specialist on the risks and vulnerabilities Pakistan faces due to climate change and the government’s vision to combat it.

The News on Sunday (TNS): Some studies indicate that Pakistan faces some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world. What do you consider to be the climate vulnerabilities and risks that Pakistan is facing?

Ali Tauqeer Shiekh (ATS): The country is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to various natural hazards, particularly floods, tropical cyclones, droughts, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and earthquakes. More than 30 million people have been affected since 2010. The three sectors of the economy that are most at risk include the agriculture-food-water nexus, urban infrastructure, and the financial sector coupled with the government budget. In terms of human costs, the poor are the most vulnerable as they are the most reliant on agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forests and groundwater that is heavily degraded, and are the most directly impacted by natural disasters and slow onset of climate change.

TNS: How much does climate change contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan?

ATS: Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change and climate-induced extreme events, and its consistent appearance in the top 10 ranking of Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch has placed the country, along with Haiti and the Philippines, in a new category of countries being recurrently affected by catastrophes both in the long-term index as well as in the index for the respective year. ND-Gain Index5 has placed Pakistan as the 39th most vulnerable country and the 27th least ready country in the world to address the impacts of climate change. This is borne out by the fact that in fiscal year (FY) 2020, 40 percent of households suffered from moderate to severe food insecurity and therefore cannot absorb further climate shocks to food systems. Extreme weather events often cause crop failures threatening food security. The increased temperatures and variations in precipitation and monsoon patterns coupled with increased carbon are resulting in decreased protein, zinc, iron and quality of protein in crops. This results in decreased dietary protein, causing malnutrition and stunting.

TNS: In addition to the vulnerabilities and risks you have mentioned, there are some significant socio-economic dimensions and economic costs of climate change. What can these be?

ATS: With the current population estimated at 220 million, Pakistan is the fifth-most-populous country of the world, growing at a rate of 2.4 percent per annum. Demographically, Pakistan is a young country, with a projected population of young people reaching 181 million by 2050 with an estimated four million entering the working age every year. This poses significant challenges. Nearly 29.5 percent of the total population is living below the poverty line, and unemployment is reported to be 4.7 percent. The situation worsened with the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (MOPD&SI) estimated that 12.3 million (20 percent of employed labour force) to 18.5 million people (30 percent of the labour force) were rendered unemployed due to the pandemic.

Pakistan remains a largely agrarian country. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, Year 2020-2021, agriculture has a 19.2 percent share in the GDP and accounts for 60 percent of exports, providing livelihood to about 68 percent of the country’s population living in rural areas, and employing 45 percent of the national labour force. Adverse impacts of climate change are the major causes of losses in livelihoods, productivity, and human and livestock health. Moreover, National Flood Protection Plan IV (NFPP-IV), for example, estimates that the cost of flood disasters has ranged around $3.32 billion per year, depending on the frequency and intensity of floods. Pakistan is said to be spending 5.8–7.6 percent of federal expenditures on climate change, (or about 11 percent combined on adaptation and mitigation), according to a multi-country study by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2015. Overall, Pakistan’s adaptation needs in 2016 were placed in the range of $7–14 billion per annum to 2050.

Pakistan has not applied for global funds. The reason behind not applying is that Pakistan has not invested in developing the capacity of institutes and business entities to design and develop ‘focused projects’.

TNS: Pakistan contributes little to global greenhouse gas emissions but it is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Why does Pakistan not receive global climate funds?

ATS: Because Pakistan has not applied for global funds. The reason behind not applying is that Pakistan has not invested in developing the capacity of institutes and business entities to design and develop ‘focused projects’. Pakistan has left it to those organisations that have accreditation or licence to get global funds; all of them are foreign organisations. Pakistani organisations like the Punjab Bank, SMEs’ banks, Bank of Khyber, Women Bank must develop their capacities to access such funds for the country.

TNS: How do you rate the capacity and technological advancement of government departments in combating climate change?

ATS: Improved climate forecasting, climate risk communication and early warning and a comprehensive risk management framework are especially important for a country facing multiple climate hazards. Embedding climate change adaptation requires concurrent actions and investments in several arenas: policies, investment process, and scientific/ technical capacities.

The need for capacity-building exists at policy, operational, as well as reform levels at national and sub-national tiers alike. In the federation of Pakistan, the provincial governments are responsible for provincial policies, operational plans and provincial-level governance reforms. There is, therefore, an additional standing need for harmonisation and coordination of national and sub-national policies, and for synergising the national agenda for climate action. The Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) should work closely with line ministries and provincial Planning and Development Departments (P&DD) to mainstream climate considerations into over-arching development and sectoral planning in a gradual and systematic manner.

TNS: You have updated Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs which have been submitted to the Climate Change Secretariat of the United Nations. In what way is this document expected to guide Pakistan’s climate change agenda?

ATS: Climate change imposes numerous challenges, and is becoming an existential threat globally. Pakistan’s experience through Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in addressing the global challenges serves as a solution provider. Pakistan has surpassed mitigation contributions, and has taken climate change action beyond Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It has taken initiatives that contributed to reduction of 8.7 percent emissions between 2016 and 2018. The central goal of the updated NDCs is to realise the vision of a sustainable, low-carbon, and climate-resilient Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) aims to work towards the full implementation of NDC contributions considering the current circumstances, and realising the importance of socio-economic conditions in designing climate action. Pakistan aims to advance the following specific objectives: improve NDC planning, policy, strategy and legislation, strengthen an enabling environment for NDC implementation, accelerate the policy coherence and integration to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and enhance NDC measurement, reporting and verification and transparency of climate action.

The author is a staff     member. He can reached     at: warraichshehryar@gmail.com