Islamabad has been a no-go area for several days under the threat of another sit-in by the Tehreek-i-Labbaik-Pakistan (TLP) which boasts significant street-power.

At least five policeman have died in violence blamed on TLP rioters in its October 22 rally in Lahore and the subsequent call for a march on the federal capital. The federal government has since entered a secret deal with the proscribed party, reportedly with help from the military establishment, “to save the country from further bloodshed”.

That an agreement had been reach was announced last week by two federal minsters and two mediators, significant clerics from Karachi, who were said to have been engaged after Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, the chief of army staff, started making efforts to resolve the issue. Mediation by the military is said to have been important in view of the TLP mistrust in a government it said had failed in the past to live up to signed agreements to take up the matter of expulsion of the French ambassador over blasphemy to the parliament.

Sources close to the negotiations say the new agreement requires the government, among other things, to initiate a parliamentary debate on blasphemous acts in France. The government has apparently already agreed to release key TLP leaders including its chief, Saad Rizvi, and several hundred detained members, withdraw criminal cases against TLP workers at the earliest; remove the name of TLP members from the Fourth Schedule (official terrorist watch list) and allow the party to take part in the general elections. In return, the mediators claim, the TLP will stop insisting that the government expel the French ambassador, hold no violent protests and organise no long march or sit-in protest. The mediators says it’s a win-win situation for the parties to the dialogue.

According to the government the biggest loss in the TLP activism has been the casualties sufferd faced by the law enforcement agencies, particularly the police. To add insult to injury, the government has been forced to appease the TLP to “maintain law and order”.

“It is a victory for the TLP and yet another surrender by the state/ government,” observes security analyst Zahid Hussain. He adds, “This group has been committing violence for several years now. It has even threatened the judiciary over judgments in blasphemy cases.”

He says “political expediency” has been the government’s main consideration rather than the rule of law.

“The latest developments did not surprise me. The government succumbing to a lawless brigade is not unprecedented. The writ of the state has yet again crumbled in the face of violent extremism,” says Hussain, adding, “This is yet another gain for the TLP and may threaten national security in the future too.”

“It is a good thing in the sense that this demonstration had to end somewhere. One option was to go for violence and deal with them with an iron hand. That would have led to serious and greater violence,” says Tariq Parvez, a former head of the National Counterterrorism Authority (NACTA). He adds, “Ideally, the government should not let them gather in large numbers.”

He says that while this agreement could provide short-term relief, the TLP will likely continue pushing for its extreme agenda. He notes that this agreement has come at a heavy cost for the writ of the state. It is like living with a disease rather than taking preventive and curative measures, he says. He says the state should have a clear counter-narrative to deal with extremist groups.

He also says the compromise has sent the wrong message to the police. “It has demoralised the police force. The policemen, in future, will think twice before taking action against such groups,” he adds.

The TLP boasts massive street power. Their dedicated supporters are called to action in the name of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him). During its rallies many boys have been seen committing serious violence directed against policemen and the media. They have been burning police vans and public properties and blocking roads using the threat of violence. According to some federal government reports, the TLP has also developed a dedicated Ghazi Force to fight with law enforcement agencies. The force is named after (Ghazi) Mumtaz Qadri, the confessed assassin of the Punjab governor, Salmaan Taseer, whom he accused of blasphemy.

The TLP popularity is put down mostly to its position on the issue of blasphemy. Since November 2017, it has held six major protests, sit-ins and marches ostensibly to uphold the dignity of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him).

The call for the latest long march was given when thousands of people were gathered to “celebrate the birthday anniversary of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him).” It has been seen in the context of its standing demand for the expulsion of the French envoy from the country along with the demand for release of its chief from detention.

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