Attacks on law enforcement agencies and individuals in various parts of the country by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) have increased since the fall of Kabul to the Afghan Taliban. These were forecast by security analysts in the wake of the United States (US) and NATO forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The prediction was that the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan might encourage scattered militants of the TTP to reorganise and generate a security threat to Pakistan. Some attacks on law enforcement agencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have already been claimed by the TTP and the IS-K.

Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based advocacy group and think tank, has compiled data showing a surge in terrorist attacks since January. According to PIPS’s data, the TTP carried out 95 attacks last year, killing 140 people. As many as 44 attacks have been carried out in the first six months of the current year.

The TTP started increasing its activity alongside the Pakistan-Afghanistan border especially in the tribal areas as the Afghan Taliban made speedy progress in Afghanistan. PIPS’s data indicates that between July and September, the TTP claimed 44 attacks that involved suicide bombings, ambushes, sniper attacks and roadside explosive attacks, killing 73 people in all, including security personnel.

The government too has accused the TTP of killing nine Chinese engineers in a bus blast in August. Those engineers were working on a hydroelectric project in the Kohistan district.

Afghan Taliban’s decisive victory over the US and NATO forces has not only boosted their morale but also created space for them to regroup on this side of the border, Defence and security analyst Brig Farooq Hameed (retired) says.

Pakistan’s military operations against the TTP and other terrorists’ groups since 2010 have eliminated most of their cadre. However, some cells and splinter groups are still working in Balochistan and the KP, he tells The News on Sunday (TNS). “The level of our intelligence effort should increase quickly to identify these cells before they can mount terrorist activities”.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report released in June stated that there were between 2,500 to 6,000 TTP fighters, including commanders, on the Afghan side of the border. Some reports point out that around 2,300 TTP members, including some important commanders, like Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, have been released from Afghan prisons since the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul.

Maulvi Faqir Mohammad was the deputy chief of the banned Harakat-i-Taliban and once enjoyed great influence in the Bajaur Agency when the TTP and Al Qaeda had noticeable presence in Pakistan’s tribal areas. According to media reports, Al Qaeda chief Dr Ayman al Zawahiri and Faqir Mohammad have close ties.

The TTP has carried out some terrorist activities in Pakistan. It has also reportedly been using the Afghanistan soil to do so. Nevertheless, Afghan Taliban have given assurance to Pakistan that they will not permit such activities on their soil any longer. Pakistan’s concerns regarding the potential of TTP using the Afghan territory to create security threats for Pakistan are not baseless.

“Pakistan is facing challenges while handling the spillover effects of the unsettling circumstance in Afghanistan in the shape of refugees’ influx. The most important concern for our government must be to stop miscreants’ incursion under the garb of refugees”, former head of Military Intelligence (MI) and Inter-Services Intelligence Punjab Brig Syed Ghazanfer Ali (retired) tells TNS.

Although the current security challenges are a continuation of the past, the surveillance stress has increased after the Afghan Taliban takeover, he adds.

Apart from the TTP threat, the IS-K is targetting individuals and law enforcement agencies in the tribal areas. “In Afghanistan, the Taliban and the IS-K are fighting a bloody war for pre-eminence. Here in Pakistan, the picture is murkier. And beyond the overt violence, the region has been simmering for months with threats and tension,” BBC News reports.

Obviously, law enforcement agencies are always prepared for the worst, says Brig Ghazanfer Ali, “foreign anti-Pakistan agencies are involved in make use of an unstable situation to enhance security threats for Pakistan. Therefore, considering the current scenario, investment in enhancing technical intelligence must be made to sharpen the existing intelligence input”.

A few days ago, President Dr Arif Alvi and Prime Minister Imran Khan offered pardon to the Taliban fighters in the TTP who abandoned their fight against the state.

A TTP spokesman rejected this offer of amnesty in a statement. “Pardons are usually offered to those who commit crimes, but we are quite proud of our struggle”, the statement said.

Defensc and security analysts are convinced that security challenges are not going to diminish in the near future. Therefore, the state has to chalk out a comprehensive and effective plan to deal with the security challenges to the country.

The writer is a staff member. He can be reached at

warraichshehryar@gmail.com