The rapidly emerging climatic changes are one of the biggest threats to the sustainability of life on earth. Global warming is a major cause of environmental degradation today. The increased emission of greenhouse gas (GHGs) in our outer atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning leads to a rise in average temperature besides polluting the air. Climate change affects not only human life but also the economy by disrupting climatic processes, resultantly leading to frequent floods, famines, droughts and cyclones, among other natural disasters.

In Pakistan, climatic changes are expected to have wide-ranging impacts, such as reduced agricultural productivity, increased variability of water availability, increased coastal erosion and seawater incursion, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events.

The latest report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) states that climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes. The report predicts that Pakistan will face more heatwaves and unprecedented rainfall in the next decade if global greenhouse gas emissions continue as usual. Due to global emissions, Pakistan is among the top ten most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change.

A powerful impact of climate change is that there is a shift in winters and summers. Now we see a prolonged and hot summer in Pakistan, whereas winters are short and very cold. This also affects the sowing and harvesting time of the staple crops in Pakistan. Extreme weather conditions also affect crop yield.

The causes and impacts are due to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, emissions within-country also play a vital role in weather-related events. Rapidly increasing population is putting pressure on resources such as water, sewage and living environment. According to the United Nations, 95 percent expansion will take place in the cities of developing countries. Pakistan is not an exception in this case. Unplanned urbanisation leads to more emissions from the transport sector as well as from the industry. According to another estimate of the UN, 70 percent of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are produced due to energy consumption in the cities.

Unusual weather events such as hailing in June in Islamabad, unprecedented rainfall causing flooding, increasing heat waves, cold waves, bad air quality and droughts have incurred irreplaceable damage to the homes, livestock and livelihood of the communities facing it.

According to different sources, flooding between 2010-2015 has affected 7,925 villages and damaged 483,326 houses pushing communities to displace. The total affected land is estimated to be 10.405 million acres, and 5,347 livestock died. This left people with agricultural loss and livelihood loss. This has also caused rural-urban unplanned migration. This mobility not only affects their education but also pushes them to survive on meagre wages. According to research, only 2010 flooding caused an economic loss of approximately 43 billion USD putting a burden on our economy and health system. Due to increased warming, our glaciers are melting rapidly, and if business as usual continues, then the world will witness a 1.5 degrees increase in temperature in just two decades. That means Pakistan’s glaciers are at greater risk. This also causes glacial lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) in different areas of Gilgit-Baltistan, causing displacement of the local communities.

The phenomenon of heat-related events is the new normal in Pakistan. It has witnessed its highest temperature recorded, i.e., 53.3 degrees Celsius, in Mohenjo Daro, Sindh, in 2010. This temperature is claimed to be the highest ever recorded temperature in the region of Asia. Other areas of Pakistan with high temperatures include Turbat, Larkana, Jacobabad, Sibi, Padian, Nawabshah, Mianwali, Rohri, Dadu, Noorpurthal, Sukkur, Sargodha, Lasbella, Multan, Bahalnagar, Pasni, Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan and Bannu. All these areas (located in all four provinces) have experienced temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius or above during the last 20 years.

These heat waves have affected the poor, women, children, and outdoor workers, including police officers, traffic wardens, construction workers, farmers, postal men, drivers (without air conditioning) and motorcyclists. According to estimates, 1300 people died because of the heatwave in 2015 in Southern Pakistan with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. Almost 70,000 people were admitted to the hospitals in different parts of Karachi that year. In 2018, 65 deaths within four days of May were reported due to heat-related illnesses in Karachi. The affected included poor, sick, old, outdoor workers, women, children and particularly those not having access to air conditioning systems. On the other hand, cold waves, especially in Tharparkar, affect children, women, and older adults.

Air pollution is also another pressing issue in Pakistan (and the rest of the world). Air pollutants from the transport sector, industries, agricultural sector, brick kilns, and neighbouring countries produce both cooling and heating effects based on the contaminant’s nature. But these emissions affect health and negatively impact day-to-day businesses, such as flights being delayed and educational institutions being closed during smog season. Due to visibility issues, the number of road accidents also increases. According to the air quality index (AQI), Lahore and Karachi are the worst cities when it comes to air pollution. Cities that are thought to be clean also fall into ‘unhealthy’ AQI. According to the World Bank estimates, Pakistanis on average are losing two and a half years of their life expectancy due to exposure to harmful air.

Going forward, countries emitting the most should be committing to net-zero emissions. The developed world needs to create a framework to pay for the losses incurred due to their emissions caused in Pakistan. According to the Asian Development Bank, socioeconomic costs of environmental degradation are ranging between USD7 billion and USD14 billion per year. Climate finance, clean technology transfer and capacity building of developing countries should be the topmost priority of developed countries at a conference of parties (COP) 26 if they want to maintain their credibility. Pakistan also needs to invest in clean and sustainable transportation. The government of Pakistan has introduced an E-vehicle policy, and 30 percent of cars will be brought in Pakistan by 2030, but we need to shift this focus from ‘personal cars’ to ‘public transport’. Public transport should not only be environment friendly but also safe for all genders. Pakistan is also committed to renewable energy and by 2030, we should meet the target of 60 per cent clean energy mix. To achieve this target ministry of climate change, ministry of petroleum, and ministry of energy, power division should sit together. A committee should be formed to avoid clashes in their interest. Energy-efficient buildings can also mitigate the impact of climate change. Plantation of local species can also create a cooling effect in urban areas and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. We need to keep green belts instead of removing them in the name of development. Capacity building of local communities can help fight climate change. For instance, producing and buying food items at the local level can reduce carbon footprints. It will reduce transportation costs and will reduce waste. One can also purchase fewer clothes as most of the fabric ends up in landfills. Pakistan also needs to work on a waste management system to avoid emissions of harmful gases.

The writer is an environmental expert based in Islamabad. 

She tweets @S_Maryam8