Unanticipated rainfall in different parts of Pakistan has destroyed many crops badly affecting the sowing and harvesting of winter crops known as Rabi crops. These unexpected rains have damaged crops like those of rice, cotton, and sugarcane, raising serious concerns for farmers and the country’s industrial sector that relies heavily on seasonal crops.

This situation then begs the question: are we equipped to take care of winter crops?

Climate plays a vital role in the agricultural yield, providing essential water supplies, retrieving soil productiveness and regulating the ideal ecological conditions for productivity. Yield growth may face serious challenges if any change occurs in the climate parameters needed at different phases of crop growth.

The Global Climate Risk Index 2019 – a report published by the Germanwatch – showed Pakistan as the eighth country most affected by extreme weather events. In the same index released in 2021, Pakistan was shown as the fifth most vulnerable country.

Pakistan’s agriculture sector plays a central role in the economy as it contributes 18.9 percent to the GDP and absorbs 42.3 percent of the labour force. Its contribution in the GDP is reducing with the passage of time. Like in 2010, its contribution was 21 percent to the GDP and employed 44 percent of the workforce.

Two types of crops are grown in a year in Pakistan: Rabi crops (Oct-April) which include wheat, barley, gram and oil seeds, and Kharif crops (May-Oct) which include rice, maize, sorghum, millets, cotton, and sugarcane.

As Pakistan is lying on an arid and semi-arid geographical location, it makes agriculture extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially for major agricultural crops (wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton) across the agro climatic zones in Pakistan.

Pakistan Agriculture Research Council has divided Pakistan into ten agro-ecological zones/regions divided on the basis of variations in physiographic, soil composition, climate, agriculture land use and many other factors that affect agriculture.

“Due to climate change, each agro-ecological zone has a different impact on yields,” says Sardar Asif Sial, an agriculturalist and environmentalist. Most of the farmers, according to him, are absolutely unequipped to tackle the impact on crops caused by climate change.

The recent rain spell has affected rice and cotton crops heavily. Both crops were ripe and ready for harvesting till the unexpected rain hit.

Chaudhry Tariq, a grower, is concerned that even crops that have survived the recent unexpected spell of rain would deliver inferior quality yield which sells at a lower price. “Some areas might have suffered 15-20 percent loss of rice yield till now. Moreover, the soil is still wet and there is no time left for sowing the wheat crop which should be a matter of concern for everyone.”

Apart from the recent financial and crop loss, Tariq believes that late cultivation of wheat will certainly bring serious challenges for the growers, public and government in the coming months.

Pakistan is facing a grain shortage this year. Some media reports have highlighted that the country remains short of its yearly requirements by up to 1.5 million tons. “At the government level, a good produce is being anticipated over the next year. However, unexpected rain may create a shortage,” says Farooq Bajwa, President Basmati Grower Association and former convener Punjab Water Council, while talking to The News on Sunday (TNS).

Cotton is another crop which is badly hit by the change in weather. At present, Pakistan is the fifth largest producer of cotton and the third largest consumer/producer of cotton yarn in the world. About 1.3 million out of five million farmers cultivate cotton on an area of six million acres, covering 15 percent of cultivated area in the country. Cotton crop has 0.8 percent share in the GDP and contributes 5.2 percent in agriculture value addition. Cotton has 51 percent share in total foreign exchange earnings of the country.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21, the total production of the cotton crop for 2020-21 declined 23 percent to 7 million bales from 9.15 million bales a year earlier. Some reports indicate that the decline was 34 percent to 5.57 million bales.

“This year is expected to not even have 3 million bales in the Punjab due to various factors, climate change being one,” says Bajwa. Sowing of crops like potato, onion, canola and animal feed are already affected because of the weather change, he says.

Sial adds another grim note. He says there are no early warning systems at the local level for longer time frames. “There is also a lack of accurate information and hardly any radars to warn farmers. Early warning systems are desperately needed because most farmers are still using traditional methods for sowing and harvesting”, he adds.

The writer is a staff member. He can be reached at   warraichshehryar  @gmail.com