Analysts expect a tough political tussle in the Punjab soon if the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz join hands against Imran Khan’s government.

The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is getting ready for its next show of power in Karachi. Discussions about a no-confidence motion in the Punjab have raised the political temperature once again. The tussle within the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf also does not appear to be settling down despite the latest blow to the group of parliamentarians backed by Jahangir Khan Tareen.

The PDM is going to hold a public gathering in Karachi on August 29. The PPP has reiterated that a no-confidence motion against Chief Minister Usman Buzdar can be the blow to bring down Imran Khan’s government eventually. Media reports indicate that the PML-N has conveyed its conditional willingness to the PPP leadership to overthrow Buzdar if the PPP can successfully manage, as is being claimed, the required numbers.

The Punjab provincial assembly has a total of 371 members. The PTI leads the house with 182 seats, the PML-N stands second with 165, the PML-Q has 10 seats and the PPP 7. There are 5 independent members and one seat belongs to Pakistan Rah-i-Haq party. 22 MPAs are currently in the Jahangir Khan Tareen group which is considered a pressure group within the PTI-led government.

Apart from Tarin group, working relationship between the PTI and the PML-Q are not ideal – the PML-Q leadership has several unresolved issues with the PTI in the province, as well as at the Centre, says Tahir Malik, the political analyst.

However, the PML-N has been wary of the pitfalls of a no-confidence motion. Senior members of the party have stated on various occasions that the goal cannot be achieved unless the establishment stops supporting the PTI-led government.

There is a possibility to turn such a move against Buzdar into a success since he is not in the good books of the establishment, Malik says.

“The PPP has been proposing this idea to counter the resignation notion since the formation of the PDM but the PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif has been unwilling to share the table with the PML-Q leaders,” adds Malik. Now, the internal rift in the PTI can be manipulated since the frustration level of the JKT group has been rising, he says.

“Apparently, the power corridors would not be open to any experimentation while dramatic changes are occurring in Afghanistan – a stable political set-up would be in the position to chalk out a solid programme to handle the forthcoming challenges for Pakistan”, says Analyst Amjad Warraich.

For its part, the PTI looks confident in its handling of the Jahangir Tareen backed group of parliamentarians – as the latest episode involving MPA Nazir Ahmad Chohan has shown. Aun Chaudhry, an old companion of Imran Khan and special assistant to the Punjab CM on political affairs has also been asked to step down after he has refused to distance himself from the JKT camp.

Analyst Amjad Warraich does not see any serious challenge to the PTI government in the near future. Most of the parliamentarians, he says, do not hold any unresolvable grudges against their party – they have some problems related to their constituencies and the CM has promised that these will be settled. Therefore, opposition parties may find it difficult to exploit the differences to their advantage, he tells The News on Sunday (TNS).

“Apparently, the power corridors would not be open to any experimentation while dramatic changes are occurring in Afghanistan – a stable political set-up would be in the position to chalk out a solid programme to handle the forthcoming challenges for Pakistan”, he says.

Meanwhile, the Punjab government has witnessed a couple of more twists these days. For one, Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan, the special assistant to the chief minister on information, was asked to leave the information office. Fayaz-ul-Hassan Chohan, the minister for prisons and colonies, has been asked to replace Awan. Awan had to deal with an awkward situation when the doors of the Punjab assembly were closed on her. She could not get permission to attend the oath-taking ceremony of Ahsan Saleem Baryar, the newly-elected parliamentarian who hails from Awan’s hometown of Sialkot.

Jouralist Naeem Ashraf Butt tells TNS that Buzdar was not at all happy with Awan’s role as a spokesperson and her inability to portray CM’s image in the media.

“The CM believed that Awan was using the position to promote her own image rather than the work being done by the government and the CM”, he states.

On the reappointment of Chohan as a spokesperson, Butt says that three factors favoured him.

“First, his role in making a crack in the JKT camp by delivering Nazir Chohan; second his strong connection with Mirza Shahzad Akbar, the advisor to the prime minister on interior and accountability; and third, Buzdar’s inability to find any other person to replace Awan,” he says.

The writer is a staff member. He can be reached at   warraichshehryar@gmail.com