Turkey recently witnessed one of the worst wildfires in its history. Over two hundred wildfires burnt forests spread over 400,000 acres of land. Not surprisingly, the fire was not limited to Turkish borders. It was part of a more extensive series of wildfires that engulfed part of Greece and were caused by an unprecedented heatwave this year in many parts of the world.

In June-July this year, North America also witnessed one of the most intense heatwaves, with temperatures reaching as high as 49.6 degrees Celsius in Canada. The intense heat wave triggered wildfires in many parts of Canada and the USA.

In 2020, bushfires in Australia destroyed 24.7 million acres of land (which is equivalent to 11 percent of Pakistan’s land area) and killed over a billion animals. Some animal species that managed to survive the inferno are on the verge of extinction. In the last monsoon season, Karachi received 484 mm (19 inches) rain, which was the highest in the 90 years. Such extreme weather events are potent reminders that climate change is real and dreadful, and has started taking its toll in more dramatic ways than we had expected. Extreme weather events are none other than the dreaded climate change.

There is incontrovertible evidence that human activities cause climate change. We need to continuously remind ourselves about the mechanism and pathways through which human activities degrade the environmental quality. Greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for adverse climate change. The key greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases (F-gases).

It is not difficult to see how human activity contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide is emitted through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. Agricultural activities, waste management, energy use, and biomass burning all contribute to methane emissions. Agricultural activities, such as fertiliser use, are the primary source of nitrous oxide emissions. Industrial processes, refrigeration and the use of various consumer products contribute to emissions of F-gases.

Global data on carbon emissions shows that the largest carbon-emitting sectors are electricity and heat production (25 percent), agriculture, forestry and other land use (24 percent), industry (21 percent), transportation (14 percent), other energy (10 percent) and building (6 percent).

Electricity and heat production requires the burning of coal, natural gas and oil. Greenhouse gas emissions from the industry primarily involve the burning of fossil fuels at energy facilities. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use come primarily from agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector involve burning of fossil fuels for road, rail, air and marine transportation. Greenhouse gas emissions from the buildings sector arise from on-site energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. Greenhouse gas emissions from other energy sources include all emissions from the energy sector which are not directly associated with electricity or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining, processing and transportation.

The opportunity to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius is tiny, but it is still there if we take urgent and robust action. The leaders must immediately raise the ambition of their short- and long-term country pledges under the Paris Agreement.

Climate change has massive economic and health consequences. According to one estimate, climate change could directly cost the world economy $7.9 trillion (roughly 3 percent of global GDP) by mid-century as increased drought, flooding and crop failures hamper growth and threaten infrastructure. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Climate Change Resilience Index assessed the preparedness of the world’s 82 largest economies and found that Africa was most vulnerable to climate change, with potentially 4.7 percent of its GDP lost to climate change by 2050. Longer-term projections paint even more grim pictures. According to an estimate, per capita income in Latin America, Africa and South Asia will decrease by more than 50 percent by 2100.

Climate change affects health outcomes by affecting health’s social and environmental determinants – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. A more drastic impact of climate change is on mortality rates. Climate change will exacerbate heat-related health issues and increase mortality rates in the world regions such as equator that already experience high temperatures.

The equatorial zone is very hot and high temperatures become increasingly dangerous as temperatures rise further. For example, Accra, Ghana, is projected to experience 160 additional deaths per 100,000 residents by 2100. In colder regions, mortality rates are predicted to fall. Oslo, Norway, is projected to experience 230 fewer deaths per 100,000. But for the world, adverse effects are predominant, and on average, 85 additional deaths per 100,000 will occur.

Climate change may already have done irreversible damage to the ecosystem. A UN report reveals that global temperatures now hover around 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and our actions may already have irreversibly altered the earth. We already see the impacts of the human-caused climate crisis as global temperatures climb ever closer to the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark—the level often touted as the point where natural systems begin to collapse, triggering permanent changes and transforming life as we know it.

This change has led to more frequent and extreme weather events like severe wildfires, flooding and record-breaking heat worldwide. Sea levels continue to rise and scientists cannot rule out a multi-feet rise in the sea level in the next century if carbon emissions are not drastically cut.

Though environmental degradation has already reached unsustainable levels, not all nations are equally responsible for climate degradation. Only a few nations contribute more than half of the global carbon emission. According to one estimate, China’s share in global carbon emission is 30 percent, followed by the USA (15 percent), India (7 percent), Russia (5 percent) and Japan (4 percent). The share of the European Union is 9 percent, while the rest of the world contributes 30 percent of the global carbon emission.

Regarding the mitigating strategies, the problem is twofold: rich nations emit disproportionately more carbon and use their political clout to defeat effective legislation, while the developing nations do not have enough resources to switch to safe energy. Several regions that contribute relatively little to the climate change — regions with relatively low per capita emissions — nevertheless suffer relatively high climate damage per capita. Though the consequences of climate change are grim for every country of the world, the developing countries are most vulnerable and least prepared to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The solution lies in disseminating the consequences of continued unsustainable economic activities, sensitising the public about the hazardous human activities and coordinated efforts at the regional and global levels to cut carbon emissions. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce pollution, improve air quality and benefit health in myriad ways. Even a miniscule increase in the global warming matters — and so every choice we make matters.

The extent to which we cut greenhouse gas emissions now will directly affect the vulnerability of current and future generations and the wide array of the planet’s plant and animal life.

The opportunity to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius is tiny, but it is still there if we take urgent and robust action. The leaders must immediately raise the ambition of their short and long-term country pledges under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Policymakers must act on the overwhelming evidence of dangers we currently face and will continue to confront if the world fails to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s inauguration of a Miyawaki urban forest in Lahore as part of his 10 billion tree tsunami project is a welcome step. However, the real impact of the project will crucially depend on the political will of this government and the future governments’ support of an important sustainable development goal.

Dr Rafi Amir-ud-Din is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at COMSATS University   Islamabad, Lahore Campus