Elections are nearly two years away but conversation has already started about the chances, alliances, possibilities and probabilities. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is brimming with buoyancy. No other party in Pakistan’s chequered political history has enjoyed such sway – governments at the Centre and in the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. It is also part of the ruling alliance in Balochistan.

The confidence coupled with realistic concerns about administrative developments due in the last quarter of 2022 can prompt the PTI to opt for early elections. Will it do so? Well, the talk is on even if there aren’t many ready yet to put a wager on it.

The story of Pakistani politics is a curious tale of power, pelf, privilege and personalities. Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa is no different. Since the history of elections remains a dismal affair in Pakistan, first from 1947 to 1970 and then from 1970 to 1985, the provincial assemblies had cosmetic candidates. The elections in 1985 were held on a partyless basis as the country was once again under martial law; the politics of the province was driven by personalities rather than by parties.

The trends that emerged during the fourth martial law regime headed by General Pervez Musharraf, catapulted the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, a concoction of religio-political parties to power in the KP. The anger against the US attack on Afghanistan was rampant in the KP and the PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and the PPP supremo Benazir Bhutto were in exile. The MMA hit the jackpot, winning 53 seats. The Awami National Party with 15 and the PPP with 10 seats were distant losers.

The ANP’s score was impressive in 2008. With Musharraf gone and the MMA fizzled out, the KP rewarded Asfandyar Wali Khan’s “secular, leftist and Pashtun national party” for the first time in the organisation’s history. The party and its liberal, democratic and egalitarian ideology were swept away by the PTI’s regional tsunami in in 2013. While both the JUIF and the PML-N made some gains on their 2008 showing, all other parties withered away.

In 2018, the PTI not only retained the government and enhanced their electoral lead but also broke the myth that KP voters always reject the incumbent. Opinion is split on whether the party has delivered on its promises. Stories of incompetence and corruption are now part of the folklore. The Covid -19 has made matters worse. The party has since won elections in the GB and the AJK too but independent analysts in the province say 2023 might change political fortunes “if elections are not engineered”.

Arshad Aziz Malik, journalist and political commentator, says that the PTI has definitely grown roots in the province. “But if free and fair elections are held, the party may be in for a surprise.”

Malik agrees that it is premature to predict the outcome of 2023 elections “but the ground reality is that two or three parties will likely form the next government”. The ANP-JUI alliance could create a strong challenger in the province. The PTI is enjoying its position and its local cadres believe that the finally functioning BRT and widespread distribution of health cards coupled with Imran’s popularity would keep them in power.

The 2023 elections are definitely going to be a test for the smaller parties. While the PPP, the PML-N and the JI have pockets of influence in the province, their collective performance in 2018 was too feeble to pose a potent challenge to the PTI.

Omar Farooq Khan, a journalist for many years, says regional parties have failed to come up with a plan to effectively counter the PTI’s appeal. “The PTI has been in power in KP since 2013. It has hardly anything to show for its time. It would be interesting to see if the opposition can use the PTI’s less than satisfactory performance as a political tool and sell it to public”.

The ANP of Bacha Khan is still popular in Charsadda, Mardan, Buner, Swabi, Swat, Shangla, Mohmand, Bajaur and Peshawar. They have a vote bank in Mansehra and Tor Ghar as well. Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamaat-Ulema-i-Islam (JUIF) is considered a national party. It has twice formed governments in the KP. It has a strong presence in the province’s southern belt including Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, Laki Marwat, Tank, Karak, Hangu, South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Orakzai and Kohat. They have a vote bank in Swabi too.

Aftab Khan Sherpao’s Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) is a nationalist party. It has remained active in two districts - Charsadda and Swabi. It was a PTI ally from 2013 to 2018. The Jamaat-i-Islami’s appeal is fading away in the province. Its footprint is now restricted to Upper and Lower Dir and Chitral.

The PPP has maintained a healthy vote bank in Nowshera, Mardan, Malakand, Upper and Lower Dir, Chitral, Kurram and Dera Ismail Khan. But it lacks winning candidates and faces organisational problems. The PML-N is strong in Hazara and Swat regions including Abbottabad, Manshera, Haripur, Shangla and Nowshera districts.

The PTM has been organising impressive public gatherings in parts of the province but its political presence is largely restricted to South and North Waziristan. It would be interesting to see if it can translate its ‘popularity’ into electoral advantage.

Imran Khan remains the most potent weapon in the PTI’s armoury. Reports of rifts and grouping within the party are rife and could hurt its prospects. Some of its winning candidates may leave the party depending on the mood in the ‘establishment’. The party remains strong in Peshawar, Nowshera, Swabi, Abbottabad, Haripur, Swat, Khyber, Orakzai and Shangla districts.

With little to show as performance, the incumbent and the opponents will be competing on the strength of personalities. Only time will tell if leaders of the ANP, the JUIF, the QWP, the PKMAP, the JI, the PPP and the PML-N can challenge the political megatron that PTI is at the moment. Key to electoral future and political destiny of smaller parties remain tied to “free and fair elections.”

The writer works for the Jang Group and can be reached on Twitter at @aamirghauri