The US-Pakistan relations can be assessed in many ways. Many prisms and lenses are available for this. However, there is a tendency in Pakistan to use only a few to develop an opinion on why and where the two countries have failed to build a stable relationship. The most popular lens is the historic perspective linked with the immediate political and economic challenges faced by Pakistan. Most people tend to ignore many more dots that need to be connected for an adequate understanding of the complex nature of US-Pakistan relations.

Bilateral history is quite toxic but could it be otherwise given the expectations of the two countries from each other? It has been an uneasy relationship between unequals, where differences in their foreign policy goals have been huge. One of the partners has dealt with the world mostly as a global superpower; the other has barely managed its vulnerabilities as a national security state. The relationship has swung from low to high depending on what was at stake for both countries. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s leaders - military as well as civilian - continue to romanticise their relations with the US believing that the US administration will always respond to their gestures — like prodding the Taliban to join the intra-Afghan peace process and US-Taliban dialogue.

They have felt betrayed whenever the US has not responded the way they expected. This is not a new development either. There has been no change in the pattern from the Cold War days to post 9/11 developments. Pakistan has never seemed to realise that paradoxes are bound to emerge in transactional relations as relations move from one issue to another.

The possibility for a new start emerged with the change in the US administration. The government remained cautiously optimistic. President Biden has dealt with Pakistan and the region for decades. Pakistan was disappointed with President Trump and his policy of endorsing India’s economic engagement with Afghanistan to pressure Pakistan and the suspension of military aid.

Islamabad expected a better appreciation of its contributions to counter terrorism from the Biden administration. At the same time, it said it wanted an increase in trade, not aid. It got a cold shoulder. It was only when he announced plans to complete the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 2021 that Pakistan found some relevance in the American narrative. Its helpful role was reluctantly appreciated.

What remains crucially unchanged so far is the disconnect at the leadership level. Biden has yet to make up his mind to fully engage with Pakistan. In Washington, relations with Pakistan are seen increasingly from the prism of Afghanistan, India and China. The US considers India a strategic ally and is willing to give it plenty of space on issues like human rights violations and religious discrimination, which it normally does not ignore in other countries due to its declared foreign policy objectives.

Pakistan never realised that paradoxes are bound to emerge in transactional relations as relations move from one issue to another.

There is no plausible justification for the continued US refrain and low attention paid to Pakistan. Relations between the two countries, once touted as allies, are not likely to emerge out of the Afghan shadow. The US is apprehensive of Pakistan’s tight embrace of China despite Pakistan’s critical role in securing safe withdrawal of US troops and heavy military equipment. Since these factors are not likely to wane soon, the tensions may last a while. However, the US will not be able to squeeze Pakistan further in the current geopolitical situation. If it tries its diplomatic arm twisting it may not have the desired impact.

Permission or denial of US bases for military operations in Afghanistan will have only a marginal impact on Pakistan-US bilateral relations. Also, whenever a re-engagement materialises, the transactional character of the relations will likely define it once more. Pakistan’s desire to be treated at par with India or on the basis of its intrinsic strength as an important friend may never materialise. However, there are many common interests and concerns that the two could work together to address to mutual benefit. Given the nature of relations, Pakistan needs to carefully analyse its options and avoid a bad transaction.

From Pakistan’s point of view, a negotiated wrap up of the Afghan conflict is the best solution. It may be bloody and chaotic but then Afghans will not be able to blame others for instability in their country. Pakistan says that by announcing a deadline and then advancing it, the US has diminished Pakistan’s leverage with the Taliban who are emboldened and hell bent now to press their battlefield advantage.

The Taliban now control roughly a third of Afghanistan’s districts. They are fighting hard for more; they have seized 20 districts in one week. This time they are closer to the capital cities of several provinces. They have already captured some posts along the Tajik border. It seems that the countdown to the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul has begun. The regional governments maybe preparing for a Taliban government but it is not inevitable. The Ashraf Ghani government may last longer than the projected six months after the withdrawal of US forces. At the White House meeting, President Biden reassured Ashraf Ghani, reiterating his pledge to maintain significant support to the central government in Kabul. “The senseless violence… has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” Biden said. “But we’re going to stick with you, and we’re going to do our best to see to it that you have the tools you need.” The US will continue to promote a negotiated intra-Afghan reconciliation but its success is doubtful. The Taliban will have little incentive to forgo their gains.

Neither the US, nor the Afghan government is going to accommodate Pakistan’s concern. Even the Taliban might not be as receptive as they were in the past. The recent announcement that Pakistan-Afghanistan border will be closed will only aggravate their grievances. Diplomatic efforts are likely to remain stalled. Regional powers -including China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Russia, may attempt to broker reconciliation between Taliban and the Afghan government, but will most likely fail. Should the Taliban manage to take over Kabul, the UN agencies and neighbouring countries should be prepared for a new Afghan refugee exodus.

Chaos looms large on the horizon. The disconnect between Pakistan and the US leaders can only aggravate the turmoil, fuelling instability and poverty. Pakistan must take all measures it can to manage the fallout. It is important to keep in mind that relations with the US are important. And while Pakistan-US relations remain cold, it is crucial that Pakistan should continue expanding its partnership with China.

The writer is a former ambassador, political analyst and advisor to CRSS, an independent think tank. He can be reached at mian.sana@gmail.com