India is going through the world’s worst Covid-19 upsurge, with more than 400,000 new cases being documented per day and breaking the record for the highest single-day cases globally. Till March, the global consensus had credited India with a success in bringing Covid under control. However, the deadly second wave hit the country very hard. It highlighted the fact that the countries not learning the lessons from the first wave may face a terrible re-surges.

Covid-19 has entered its third calendar year and has already taken more than 2.8 million lives worldwide. Experts say the behaviour of Covid-19 pandemic is not unusual with regard to its resurgence as waves.

Several factors have been identified for wave patterns in the transmission of pandemics. Biological research by the Royal Society of London has proposed a “simple model for the three waves” of the 1918 influenza pandemic, that involved: schools opening and closing, temperature changes during the outbreak and changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. Viral mutation is an additional factor that can lead to fresh outbreaks even in people who have been infected earlier.

Factually, this model has been observed globally during different waves of Covid-19 pandemic. It has also been observed that the traditional methods of controlling pandemics have practically remained unchanged. For instance, isolation and treatment of infected patients, quarantine measures, awareness and spread of information at mass level, and personal protective measures.

Nevertheless, some factors have led to a loss of control over the situation or made it worse in countries like India. Experts in Pakistan believe that repeated and blatant violations by the public and government’s failure in proper implementation of the required measures can lead to a loss of control over the situation here as well.

“Unfortunately, there are some commonalities between India’s second wave and the current wave in Pakistan,” says Dr Salman Haseeb, the Young Doctors Association (YDA) president. According to him, “Covid-inappropriate behaviour is due to a lack of fear of the disease, pandemic fatigue, elections, religious gatherings, wedding season, opening of schools, crowded public transport etc.”

“In short, the current wave in Pakistan proves that most of the reliable methods of pandemic management have been violated,” Haseeb expresses concern.

“Proper communication and spread of information to the population, which was excellent throughout the first stage of the pandemic, has also suffered. The concept of herd immunity is also flawed”, he adds.

The third wave in Pakistan has been deadly despite the imposing a complete lockdown. According to data provided by the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC), the death toll has reached 20,000, and the number of active cases is more than 66,377 out of the total 886,184 confirmed cases. The current positivity ratio is around 8 percent overall in the country. “The healthcare system is struggling in many domains,” Dr Rahim Khan Babar, a senior member of YDA-Balochistan tells TNS.

“In terms of hospital facilities we are still at the point where we were before Covid. Unfortunately, even the tertiary care hospitals in our province still lack basic facilities,” he says, adding, “The new ICU of Sandeman Provincial Hospital in the heart of Quetta city still lacks machinery, laboratory facilities and medicines needed to treat Corona patients. This shows the state of our commitment to the healthcare system and government’s priority.”

The novel United Kingdom strain has wreaked havoc in some cities of the Punjab, Azad Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Fortunately, the curve has started coming down but the danger is still there.

Health experts like Babar believe that we cannot let our guard down as yet, even if the number of infections declines and vaccination proceedss. “Apart from enhancing the capability of the healthcare system, we need to not only continue testing and tracing but also increase our capacity for it. In addition to this, Mass vaccination is the only safe and reliable method to end the pandemic,” he adds.

Members of the Pakistan Association of Private Medical and Dental Institutions (PAMI) and Pakistan Medical Association (PMA) emphasise that the pandemic has caused irreparable damage to India and that we must be prepared to deal with it. They are expecting a sever wave in the months from June to August. It can be very deadly if preparations are not made before hand, according to the PAMI and PMA officials.

“Both the PMA and the PAMI have offered 43,000 beds and 2,000 ventilators in 93 teaching hospitals across the country for the treatment of Covid patients,” says Prof Dr Ashraf Nizami, the PMA president. “We have sent a letter to Prime Minister Imran Khan and all the chief ministers to join hands with us. The government is not supposed to establish separate Covid facilities in any city, the government can utilise medical facilities already available in 93 hospitals. The only thing we demand from the government is free medicine for Covid patients. The government can also register Insaf Cards in private hospitals,” he adds.

Both PAMI and PMA officials have expressed serious concerns over the number of Covid tests being conducted across the country. They have suggested mass vaccination on a war-footing. For this purpose, PAMI vice president, Dr Abdul Rasheed Mian, has offered the government the services of medical staff and other facilities being offered in private teaching hospitals.

Both associations have also recommended to the government to map out a public-private partnership to establish an ambulance service for Covid patients, a central coordination desk in addition to the existing Rescue 1122, and several toll-free numbers to report Covid-related information.

“Considering the past experience, another wave of the virus is to be expected. There must be public-private partnership to build our health infrastructure and research capability. We have been facing a shortage of medical personnel as well as facilities to combat the pandemic. In addition to normal health requirements, we need manpower for vaccinating, testing, tracing and hospitalisation all at once,” Dr Nizami says.

The writer is a staff member. He can be reached at warraichshehryar@gmail.com