Urbanisation is sometimes mentioned as a recent phenomenon. However, recent studies suggest that it has been going on throughout human history. The human desire to live close together helps create cities. Additionally, sometimes a necessity – like food or security - binds people together. Athens, Troy and Constantinople are examples of cities that initially gained importance for military reasons. Later on, cities also became important for economic reasons being hubs of trade. Bukhara, Samarkand, Baghdad and Kashgar are early examples of this phenomenon. These cities bound the world for a long time, forming the Silk Route for trade between the East and the West. Over time, cities also emerged as centres of art, culture and science that influenced the entire world and altered the course of history.

In 1798, British demographer Robert Malthus gave his famous theory on population growth that predicted doom and gloom on the basis of too many people competing for scarce resources. Thanks to technological advancement, many more people are now living a quality life in urban areas. The great cities of the world today have come a long way in their development, passing through the era of agricultural revolution to the industrial revolution. Most are now in the midst of an information age. In the process, we have added an array of new cities and urban dwellings. The Eastern cities, like Tokyo, Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong, are catching up with (some have even surpassed) their Western counterparts, such as London, California, New York, in terms of infrastructure, sustainability, technology and overall quality of life.

Urban centres of the developing world, particularly in Asia and Africa, are trying to catch up with major cities of the world. This not for want of concentration of people (in Delhi, Mumbai, Karachi, Lagos and Cairo, for example). Other factors necessary to build great cities are also present in most cases. What seems to be lacking is the will and urgency to realise their potential.

The need for planned urbanisation should not be denied. Consider the case of Pakistan. We are a nation of approximately 210 million – the fifth largest population of any country in the world. As per the latest census of 2017, we are growing at an approximate rate of 2.1 percent annually. Considering the population of any place doubles in 30 years if the annual growth rate is 2.3 percent, the population of Pakistan is bound to be around 400 million in the year 2045. With our meagre resources, will we be able to prevent the catastrophe predicted by Malthus? Karachi, the former capital and the major port-city of Pakistan, had only 400,000 people at the time of independence. Estimates now put Karachi’s population at 16 million. It is still growing at around five percent per annum. Is there any plan to house and feed the growing population? Is there a plan for waste disposal or water supply? The Master Plan touted with much fanfare, has never been faithfully implemented. What we are left with as a result is haphazard expansion, water supply and sewage problems and Karachi’s now iconic traffic jams. Considering the fact that around half of Pakistan’s population is now living in cities and urban dwellings, the case for planned urbanisation becomes all too appealing.

Considering the fact that around half of Pakistan’s population is now living in cities and urban dwellings, the case for planned urbanisation becomes all too appealing

Consider the Punjab, which has a population of around 107 million, as per the census report of 2017 (approximately 52.94 percent of the country). The population growth rate in the Punjab has gone down to 2.1 percent from 2.6 percent in 1998. Even after this reduction in population growth, its population is expected to reach 141 million by 2030, and 183 million by 2050. A population so large is bound to create socio-economic problems related to health, education, housing, drinking water and sanitation. Like Karachi, Lahore, with a population of approximately 11 million, has passed the threshold of big cities by any standard. Previous attempts, like the master plan for Greater Lahore (1966) and the Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Study (1980) were never really fully implemented. Lahore Master Plan 2050 is now purported to be our next saviour. With new projects, like Ravi Urban Development (a 40-kilometre stretch of new development along River Ravi) and Central Business District (planned at old Walton airport), there is a greater need to integrate development plans rather than undertaking development initiatives without considering the big picture.

Protection of the environment must be the prime consideration for the future. Lahore is regularly featured as the most polluted city in the world on account of its poor air quality. Recently, the government has shown interest in taking a scientific approach to planned urban development by formulating the Punjab Spatial Strategy in collaboration with international donors. The strategy seeks to assess the province’s growth nodes and direct investment to the identified areas for competitive advantage. This can help the government make informed decisions on the basis of accurate spatial data.

A prerequisite for the smooth functioning of any big city today is efficient transportation. London’s first underground metro became operational in 1863. Istanbul’s first metro-line was operational in 1989. Tehran got its metro in 1999 and Delhi in 2002. It is only now that Lahore has started operations of the Orange Line Metro. Integration of the Orange Line Metro with road and bus networks can boost occupancy to desired levels. Peshawar’s new urban transit project, Zu Peshawar, has brought ease and affordability to millions of its residents and is a step in the right direction. Karachi Circular Railway seems to be the answer to Karachi’s traffic woes for now but, considering the city’s population growth trends, it will be insufficient in the coming yearss. Karachi needs a modern transport system just like any other big city of the world. But, do we have the resources for it? More importantly, do we have the will?

The need of the hour is to take a long hard look at our resources and plan accordingly. What resources do we have and how are we going to distribute them among our ever-increasing citizens? The great urban centers of Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi and Peshawar hold great promise as hubs of knowledge and industry, but they can also become hotbeds of poverty, famine and chaos, as predicted by Malthus. We can still make prudent decisions before things get even worse. Whether the future of our coming generations is prosperous or unplanned, with people fighting over meagre resources, is up to us.

The writer is a civil servant and engineer, with experience in public sector development projects¹