The ineffective enforcement of public health measures and poor compliance among people have triggered a sharp increase in Covid-19 positivity rate in Lahore over the last three weeks, paving the way for a third wave of novel coronavirus infections.

The massive public non-compliance of bio-safety standard operating procedures (SOPs) in public places around the city continued as segregated smart lockdowns in isolated areas proved futile in restraining the transmission of virus among the people.

The number of new Covid-19 infections and fatalities in Lahore registered a 37 percent and a 13.58 percent increase, respectively, between February 20 and March 8.

Over this two and a half-week period, there were 2,579 new cases and 25 more deaths as compared to the preceding period of the same duration - from February 3 February 20.

Countrywide, the positivity rate jumped from 3.31 percent to 4.16 percent between February 2 and March 5. Public health experts believe that a rapid increase in new infections and mortalities in Lahore over the past two to three weeks suggests a higher positivity trend of coronavirus in the city than recorded in the country.

“The decline in overall positivity ratio from 7.94 percent to 3.31 percent seen between December and mid-February is clearly reversing with a rapid increase in Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations in the provincial metropolis,” says Dr Shahid Malik, general secretary of the Lahore chapter of Pakistan Medical Association (PMA).

He believes that most people have prematurely overcome the fear of coronavirus and ar no longer bothering to wear masks or observe social distancing. “The crowd on Hall Road, for instance, is enough to expose government’s claims of ensuring enforcement of the SOPs. People are flouting all preventive measures with impunity,” he says.

“On top of it, the government is hurrying into opening all sectors of the economy without due diligence. Public hospitals are being squeezed for space. This can spell disaster for the people and exhaust all health facilities in no time,” he says.

The Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department seems unaware of the gravity of the situation, and has resorted only to ‘smart’ lockdowns in certain infection hotspots.

In view of the increase in positivity percentage and prevalence of Covid-19 during the last two weeks, the department has imposed smart lockdowns in five Lahore hotspot, in two towns, and the cantonment areas.

While the government has ordered police and district administration to watch exit and entry points and ensure observance of the SOPs and opening and closing times for commercial activities, most citizens appear to believe that law enforcement agencies and administration officials are being bribed by certain businesses in high-risk areas to be allowed risky relaxations.

Naeem Mir, the All Pakistan Anjuman-i-Tajiran general secretary, says the government’s claims of rising coronavirus cases is seen as “another hoax and a pretext to close down markets”. “The big businesses as well as small traders have suffered much over the past year. The common man is crumbling under the burden of unbearable inflation, rising unemployment and shrinking economy of the country,” he says, adding that in the past the government had only used coronavirus to make money by imposing certain restrictions on markets.

Talking to The News on Sunday, Prof Dr Irshad Hussain Qureshi, a former Head of Department of Medicine at King Edward Medical University/Mayo Hospital, says the impression of severe virulence during the third wave among already affected patients during the first or second wave of coronavirus is false. “Those already affected by Covid-19 once are less likely to get the virus now. There are hardly any cases of re-infection,” he says. Even if there are incidents of re-infection, he says, it won’t be severe. “The patients must observe quarantine to stop further transmission,” he says.

“The decline in overall positivity ratio from 7.94 percent to 3.31 percent seen from December to mid-February is clearly reversing with a rapid increase in Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations in the provincial metropolis,” says Dr Shahid Malik, the PMA Lahore Chapter general secretary.

He says careful and responsible behaviours from people, preparedness, and planning, including sentinel surveillance at the district level, are required for the sustainability of Covid-19 control.

The Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department, Punjab, has already lifted various conditions vis-à-vis Covid-19 earlier imposed under the Punjab Infectious Diseases (Prevention and Control) Act 2020 including work from home and restrictions on commercial activities. However, in view of the evolving situation of Covid-19 incidence, the government is likely to review the opening of all sectors including granting permission for indoor weddings, dining and other celebrations, cinema/theatre halls and shrines with effect from March 15.

The government has already announced early spring vacation, from March 15, for all schools, colleges and universities in Lahore among seven districts with high prevalence of Covid-19 cases.

Some students and their parents have expressed extreme concern about non-observance of SOPs in schools. The management of a private school in Gulberg has sent a whole class on leave for home quarantine after one of the students was diagnosed with Covid. “The situation gets complicated due to conflicting statements by federal and provincial education ministers and the fake notifications circulating on social media and WhatsApp groups,” says Safdar Ahmad, father of a student at a school in the Walled City.

The federal minister has issued orders for resumption of regular five-day classes in schools from March 1, causing confusion as the Punjab minister’s orders are for school attendance on alternate days and a ban on co-curricular activities in schools in Lahore among seven districts in the province.

According to official data of Specialised Healthcare and Medical Education Department, the occupancy rate of high dependency unit (HDU) beds is 37.90 percent and ICU beds 55.10 percent in public and private hospitals in Lahore. Out of the 468 patients (325 confirmed and 143 suspected), as many as 315 are admitted in 12 government hospitals and 153 in 19 private hospitals in the city. 308 patients are in HDUs/Covid Wards, 133 in ICUs and 27 on ventilators.

As many as 2,174 beds have been allocated for Covid-19 patients in government hospitals in Lahore out of which 1,842 are vacant. As many as 1,383 beds are still vacant out of 1,443 beds in Isolation Wards in public sector hospitals in the city, while as many as 345 beds are vacant out of 543 HDU beds, and another 114 ventilators are vacant out of 188 ventilators allocated for Covid-19 patients in hospitals of Lahore.

When contacted, Primary and Secondary Healthcare Department Secretary Capt (retired) Muhammad Usman said that the vaccination of people above the age of 60 has been started in the second phase from March 10. The department has set up 20 vaccination centres at the Expo Centre as a dedicated facility to avoid the danger of transmission of infectious diseases among people above the age of 60 in relatively-crowded hospitals in the city.

Some of the elderly people, who got their first vaccine jab, told TNS they were satisfied with quality of vaccine, saying that they had not experienced any adverse reaction. They also appreciated the elaborate arrangements to conduct vaccination of registered citizens without any hiccups.

Earlier, in the first phase, the frontline healthcare workers followed by doctors and medical staff in other specialties were vaccinated.

The writer is a    reporter at The News. He is based in Lahore