Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has announced that the Punjab is the “next battleground” now that the opposition alliance has won the Senate seat for Islamabad. The PPP sounds confident after Yousaf Raza Gillani’s victory. According to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the PPP chairperson, the next move is to get rid of the Buzdar government through a no-confidence motion. But the battle in the Punjab is expected to be more complex and challenging for the PDM than for the Buzdar government.

At present, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), the ruling party, has 181 seats in a house of 371. Its ally, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), has 10 which brings the total number for the coalition supporters to 191. Four independent members also support the government. The opposition parties have 173 seats among them: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has 166 and the PPP 7. Thus, the opposition will have to seek support from the PML-Q and the four independent members to turn this battle in their favour.

However, it is not as simple as the numbers make it seem. Over the last couple of months, the political scene has come to resemble a game of musical chairs. PTI’s coalition partner, the PML-Q, desperately wants to grab the power seat and the opposition parties, especially the PML-N and the PPP are willing to oust the government but their approaches remain different.

In the current circumstances, the PML-Q has emerged as the most important political group, having the power to keep the provincial government intact or to change the regime. Prime Minister Imran Khan has had to revisit his political outlook towards the PML-Q. Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the president of PDM and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the PPP chairperson are constantly in touch with the PML-Q leadership. Some media sources claim that at least two out of five of the PML-Q’s members of the National Assembly voted for Yousaf Raza Gillani instead of Dr Hafeez Sheikh.

Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, the speaker of the Provincial Assembly and the leader of the PML-Q happened to be the ‘man of crisis’ in 2019 during the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazal (JUIF) sit-in.

“Elahi helped defuse the political crisis at that time but he also promised Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman that he will help the latter knock down the PTI government when the time is ripe”, Shahbaz Mian, a political analyst, tells The News on Sunday (TNS).

“The JUI-F chief has publicly pointed to the promise the PML-Q leaders made with him in exchange for aborting the Azadi March. This is the favour the PDM president would love to seek if the PDM agreed to bring a a no-confidence motion in the Punjab”, he adds.

The PTI is aware of this possibility, given the PML-Q’s many reservations against the federal government. Prime Minister Imran Khan, who did not come to see Chuadhry Shujaat Hussain even when he was hospitalized, visited the Chaudhry’s residence a few weeks ago to seek advice on the Senate election.

In the current circumstances, the PML-Q has emerged as the most important political group, having the power to keep the provincial government intact or to change the regime.

Shahbaz Mian claims that the “PTI leadership has promised the PML-Q leadership more power in the province and at the Centre. Thus, the PML-Q has decided to wait-and-see and not play its cards hastily.”

The PPP leaders are trying to convince the PDM to move a no-confidence motion against Sardar Usman Buzdar, the Punjab chief minister. However, most of its partners in the PDM, especially those affiliated with the PML-N and the JUI-F, do not consider this feasible.

Journalist Ahmed Waleed says that the PPP is not only looking after its stake in Sindh by refusing to resign from the assemblies, it also wants to gain some political mileage in the Punjab.

“The PML-N is not willing to create space for the PPP despite wanting to getting rid of the PTI government. Most importantly, the four independent members in the assembly hold the balance”, he adds.

Bilawal Bhutto’s meeting with the Chaudhrys ahead of the election of chairperson of the Senate is not being seen as having had a limited agenda. Although, the PML-Q leaders refused to support the opposition candidate in the election for the chairperson of Senate, some sources claim that the no-confidence motion in the Punjab too was discussed at the meeting.

The PPP leader also had a meeting with Mian Hamza Shahbaz, the leader of the opposition in the provincial assembly.

“The meeting with Hamza might be an indirect move to take on board Shahbaz Sharif, who has twice offered the Chaudhrys in the past the chief minister-ship”, says Shahbaz Mian.

Strangely, the PPP did not table the proposal during the last PDM meeting. Instead, Nawaz Sharif, the head of PML-N, reiterated his suggestion for resignations from all assemblies. Media reports indicate that Bilawal Bhutto again voiced his disagreement.

“Maryam Nawaz has refused on several times to support a move for in-house change because she believes that it is almost impossible to knock down the government through a no-confidence motion. The PML-N is also not willing to give the driving seat to the PML-Q, which can damage the PML-N politically”, says journalist Naeem Ashraf Butt.

“Nawaz Sharif looks desperate… He wants all parties in the PDM to leave the assemblies. He stated this clearly in the last meeting that his party and others had supported the PPP in participating in the by-elections and in Senate elections. It was time now for PPP to consider resignations”, he adds.

According to Butt, Sharif is not changing his stance and has maintained that much time has already been wasted.

Most political analysts say that the Punjab situation is still uncertain. The PML-Q is not ready to take a gamble at this stage. A majority in the PDM, including the PML-N, is against taking the constitutional route. Therefore, they feel that the Buzdar government is in no immediate danger.

The author is a staff member. He can be reached at warraichshehryar@gmail.com