The recently-held Senate elections have exposed the vulnerability of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI). Several treasury members helped Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Yousaf Raza Gillani get elected to the upper house of the parliament.

The defeat of government candidate, Abdul Hafeez Sheikh, not only shook the confidence of the already-weak government, it also exposed the fragility of its razor-thin majorities in the National and Provincial Assemblies.

The situation, experts say, has left the PTI regime even more vulnerable politically despite passing the half-way mark in its term. There are serious concerns about its performance, especially in governance and providing relief to the general public.

The Senate defeat compelled Prime Minister Imran Khan to urgently seek a vote of confidence from the National Assembly. He got it. However, the Senate, which has a majority of opposition members, remains another battlefield. Despite some successes, including the recent vote of confidence, getting laws passed from the upper house is likely to remain a challenge. The opposition alliance – the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – has already announced a long march and sit-in in the capital city. The establishment might be willing to grant some of their demands in order to divide the PDM. It may be recalled that major opposition parties had not extended support for the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl sit-in in Islamabad.

“There is no smooth sailing for Imran Khan and his government now. The fight back has begun. During the first two-and-a-half years, the government had pushed the opposition to the wall. The opposition leaders were arrested, there were cases against them in the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and a vilification drive that made the parliament almost dysfunctional as there was no constructive debate,” says Dr Mohammad Waseem, a professor of politics at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). He thinks that their failure to negotiate any space has united the opposition parties. “Earlier, different parties had different strategies and they did not see the need to unite. The PPP did not vote for and support Shahbaz Sharif as leader of the opposition. The opposition parties seemed divided on several points. Now, they appear united,” he says.

The opposition parties, Dr Waseem recalls, cooperated with the government and the establishment on the issue of extension of the tenure of the chief of army staff (COAS) as they did not want to alienate them. “After PML-N leader Muhammad Zubair met the COAS and got the message that the status quo would continue, the opposition parties decided to join hands and formed the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) to exert some pressure.”

He says the PTI regime had enjoyed a smooth sailing till Senate elections. “However, now the government has been shaken and the PTI faces challenges in mustering support from different sides. It is a very strong message that the establishment’s support to Imran Khan is conditional. The government’s performance has been poor.”

“The credibility of the PTI regime has been declining on almost all fronts. Whether the status quo will be broken through dialogue or there will be efforts by the establishment to divide PDM remains to be seen. They will likely try to create divisions to break the alliance. It appear that the prime minister does not know what to do. Completion of his five-year term depends on the patience of the establishment and the PDM. If he provides relief to opposition leaders, his political position will be compromised. On the other hand, his government’s performance is zero. It will be very hard for him to survive on that score,” Dr Waseem says.

“Credibility of PTI regime is going down on almost all fronts. It remains to be seen whether the status quo will be broken through dialogue or dividing PDM. They will try to create divisions to break their power,” says analyst Dr Mohammad Waseem.

Another serious challenge, Prime Minister Khan faces is on account of weak chief ministers in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. PTI’s allies in the federal government and the Punjab are also unhappy with the PM and his policies. Soon after expressing their confidence in the prime minister, the allies reminded him of his earlier promises and urged him to improve governance at provincial as well as federal level as it is vital to his political survival. In the Punjab, the main battlefield, his choice chief minister has weighed heavily on the PTI. However, the prime minister still believes in him.

Last week, a senior journalist and current affairs TV host, who is otherwise considered a PTI supporter, warned Khan to change his policies and improve governance to survive politically. He said the vote of confidence had given the PTI government a “new life,” but “this will not go a long way if governance does not improve”. He asked the prime minster to make big changes in the political set up in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The people of Pakistan, he said, had pinned lot of hopes on the PTI regime. However, inflation and bad governance had provided opposition parties the opportunity to rebrand and resell their politics.

“The opposition parties are making a mockery of democracy,” Prime Minister Khan told the nation in a televised speech. He said he would not bend and listen to the opposition’s demands. The opposition, he said merely wanted relief from graft cases against its key leaders. Addressing his party members, he said he would leave the government if he did not have the support of the required number of lawmakers.

“The opposition will keep the pot boiling, both in the streets and at the assemblies. After losing control over a sizeable number of its members of parliament, the Imran Khan government seems to have turned into a lame-duck dispensation. It may lose its majority in the National Assembly and the Punjab at some nodal point. The dissenting elements may wait till the possibility of next elections,” political analyst and columnist Imtiaz Alam says. He says the fate of the PTI regime has been sealed by the new package it has negotiated with the International Monetary Fund, as it will bring more hardships, tight fiscal controls and little room for relief.

“The PDM has decided to start its long march from March 26. It will reach the Faizaabad crossing on the 30th. It is likely to turn into a sit-in. However, one can’t say whether the opposition will be able to bring down the government at this point,” Alam says, adding, “The PDM’s increasing pressure will, however, make it ever more dependent on the military-establishment. How far this hybrid relationship will survive depends on the public pressure the opposition may be able to mount.” He says there are two conflicting trends within the PDM and in both its leading parties. “One it attempting to squeeze space for the ‘selected’, while seeking some cohabitation with the powerful establishment. The other is willing to take on the establishment, now and then, in the hope of winning some concessions and expanding the space for democratic maneuver.”

“There is no way forward unless the establishment rolls back its annexation of civilian space. The principal option before the democratic movement is not the removal of a hybrid or selected regime, but to ensure an end to the authoritarian character of the state and revert to the spirit of the Constitution. It should let the hybrid regime go down to bring a permanent end to a quasi-civilian regime under the hegemony of the garrison. An agenda to turn around the civil-military equation in favour of the people of federating units of Pakistan will be too radical for a not too organised opposition,” Alam says.

The author is a staff reporter. He can be reached at vaqargillani@gmail.com