In a surprise move, Pakistani and Indian military establishments, the two archrivals, declared ceasefire across the Line of Control (LoC) by agreeing to “strict observance of all bilateral agreements and understandings”. However, many view this development as only a temporary step towards developing mutual understanding for dialogue and talks rather than a comprehensive plan for peace in the region. Pakistan, till now, has categorically declared the restoration of Indian Held Kashmir to its old legal status as a prerequisite.

The Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO) from both sides established contact on the hotline after a long time and to cease cross-border firing along the LoC and all other sectors, with effect from midnight February 24. Both sides have witnessed unprecedented ceasefire violations in the past few years in response to each other’s alleged acts. This has caused hundreds of civilian causalities on both sides of border.

“In the interest of achieving mutually beneficial and sustainable peace, the two DGsMO agreed to address each other’s core issues / concerns which have the propensity to disturb peace and lead to violence,” the jointly-issued official statement read.

“Indeed, it is a positive development but it will not be fruitful unless linked to further actions like reversal of August 5 steps regarding Kashmir and release of political prisoners there,” says Jalil Abbas Jilani, a former foreign secretary, adding, “because the kind of repression that is being seen in/reported from Indian Kashmir side needs serious interventions.”

He says that a durable peace is unlikely to return without reversing these steps. However, he adds, we can say that the latest development regarding ensuring ceasefire from both sides can create an environment conducive to dialogue and therefore, it is a positive step.

“The ceasefire comes as a pleasant surprise to peaceniks in the region. It is a small step but given the breakdown of bilateral relations this is immensely significant as both India and Pakistan, for different reasons, would prefer a managed border and de-escalation in hostilities,” says Raza Rumi, a political analyst, teacher at Ithaca University and the founding editor of Naya Daur Media.

Thousands of violations in recent years have shown how futile these attempts at posturing are and how damaging they are for the populations that live along the LoC as well as the loss of lives, he says. “But it’s not altruism that has caused a minor thaw; it’s the compulsions”, he adds.

Pakistan and India have had an increasingly hostile relationship for the past few years, especially, after India changed the agreed special (legal) status of Jammu and Kashmir and made it a federal territory, later on imposing strict restrictions on freedoms of expressions, politics and speech.

Relations came to a further standstill after February 2019, when India alleged that a Pakistan-based militant group had carried out an attack that killed more than 30 Indian security personnel in the Indian-administered Kashmiri town of Pulwama, an allegation that Pakistan has always denied, terming it New Delhi’s propaganda to defame Islamabad. India also carried out an air raid on Pakistani territory in the same month. In response, Pakistan shot down two Indian fighter jets and captured a pilot who was freed later as a gesture for peace by Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The DGsMO hotline contact was set up in 1987. An understanding for ceasefire was reached in 2003. However, there have been violations from time to time. After 2013, there has been a serious spike in the CFVs (ceasefire violations), according to Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar, the director general of Inter Services Public Relations (DGISPR). Between 2014 and 2021, there were 12,565 CFVs, marking a 92 percent increase over 2013. The greatest number of CFVs (3,351) from Indian side were registered in 2019 and the highest casualties (377) reported in 2018 on Pakistani side, according to DG ISPR.

Reportedly, the US and China have played a role in nudging the two nuclear powers and neighbours known for their volatile relationship to move towards more normal ties.

Welcoming the ceasefire and the Indo-Pakistan joint statement, the US has said, “This is a positive step towards greater peace and stability in South Asia, which is in our shared interest and we encourage both countries to keep building upon this progress.” The US has also urged New Delhi to restore full economic and political normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir, adding that it continues to closely follow developments in the Valley.

“The big powers in this region don’t want a state of conflict for their economic and security interests. Pakistan’s military is anxious about what happens in Afghanistan for any development there would impact Pakistan’s security. For India, there are economic compulsions but primarily it is the high cost of belligerence that it’s now dealing with,” says Rumi.

“Kashmir, of course, remains the faultline in this bilateral relationship and if India is serious about peacebuilding then it would have to start parleys even if they are through back channels,” he notes.

“The US, in the past, has been urging both sides to move towards peace and stability but in recent years we have not seen any move or action from the US on this issue. The Biden administration has welcomed the recent ceasefire and it is hoped that it says something serious and persuades India to reverse its illegal change of Kashmir’s status,” Jilani, who has also served a term as Pakistani ambassador to the US, says.

Experts and analysts view the ceasefire as a step forward but point out that it cannot bring a comprehensive peace by itself. They advise measured optimism saying that it will be politically challenging for New Delhi to reverse the status of Jammu and Kashmir.

A few weeks ago, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security Division and Strategic Policy Planning Moeed Yusuf had said that “Pakistan will take two steps if India takes one”. He had reiterated that Pakistan wants peace in the region.

There have been media reports with reference to upcoming developments following the ceasefire between the two countries. Some of these reports suggest both sides are “considering restoring their respective High Commissioners in the missions in New Delhi and Islamabad.” The HCs were recalled after the Pulwama attack in February 2019. Last week, an Indian airline plane flying from Sharjah to Lucknow made an emergency landing in Karachi after one of the passengers aboard fell sick. India recently allowed passage through its airspace to PM Imran Khan on his visit to Colombo. The Pakistani authorities in Islamabad told a parliamentary committee that Pakistan will be getting the Indian Covid-19 vaccine from the GAVI, global vaccine alliance international. Pakistan is to get as many as 10 million doses from the alliance, including some produced in India.

The author is a staff reporter. He can be reached at vaqargillani@gmail.com