China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), generally seen as the starting point of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was launched in 2013. Over the last four years, progress on the CPEC has been sluggish. Some analysts say that the US-China rivalry has put Pakistan in a tight spot. It was especially so during President Donald Trump’s time in White House. Now, with Joe Biden in the Oval Office, is there a chance of a policy shift regarding China and the BRI without there being serious problems that would have resulted during the Trump administration?

The CPEC project gained momentum in 2015 following the agreement signing by the then prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Initially, the outlay for the project was $46 billion. The amount has been revised since and now stands at $65 billion. The investment is meant to develop communications, energy and industrial infrastructure in Pakistan.

The project carries tremendous value for China. The corridor will connect China’s Xinjiang province to the Indian Ocean through Gwadar, avoiding the Malacca Strait and reducing the sea travel to the Middle East, Africa and Europe by 10,000 kilometres. Besides Pakistan, Xinjiang is geographically connected with Russia, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and India. This zone was once part of the ancient Silk Route.

The BRI, often labeled as the New Silk Road, is a global development strategy with $8 trillion investments in nearly 70 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. The Trump administration saw CPEC/BRI as an instrument for fulfilling China’s ambition for global dominance. It warned Pakistan that the Chinese development assistance would prove a debt trap and cripple its already frail economy.

“US has not only been expressing concerns over the CPEC and its financial impact on Pakistan, the Trump administration consistently told the world that the CPEC/BRI can be a Trojan horse for China-led regional development and military expansion”, says Professor Mobarak Haider, a political analyst and author of Tehzeebi Nargasiat and Taliban: the tip of a holy iceberg.

China has been expanding into Africa, and it has made a lot of effort to dominate the foreign and trade policy of Australia, he adds.

“It also had significant influence in America in the form of lobbies, international corporate groups and the media… China has an expansionist programme – the way America used to have,” Haider argues.

A report published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in 2018 titled Game of Loans: How China Bought Hambantota, indicates that “China’s development finance institutions (DFIs) and state-owned banks either have equity or an operating lease at around 70 harbours (including Gwadar) abroad… alarm bells started ringing when, through a drastic decision, an outstanding loan meant for upgrade of a Sri Lankan port, namely Hambantota, was converted into controlling equity and a 99-year lease. This seems sufficient reason to make the US uncomfortable with the CPEC progress.”

Haider believes that over the last two decades China has successfully progressed towards the One Hundred Years’ Marathon task given by Chairman Moa Tze Tung to his country. The goal is to replace America as the dominant world power just as America replaced Great Britain”, says Haider.

During Trump’s tenure in the White House, the US administration was trying to stop China. Trump clearly felt threatened by the great economic and immense military power China was developing into, he says.

Trump administration officials regularly said that the CPEC was not aid to Pakistan but a form of financing that guarantees profits for China’s state-owned enterprises. They also said the cost of CPEC projects was fast escalating and pointed out that some of companies black-listed by the World Bank had been awarded CPEC contracts.

President Trump is no longer at the President House. Joe Biden is moving fast to undo some of his work. His administration has not indicated any intention yet to reverse Trump’s trade policy with China or reconsider its stance on the BRI/CPEC.

Ambassador Muhammad Aqil Naseem (retired) does not see any drastic change in America’s approach towards Chinaese expansion during Biden’s tenure. He thinks that China-US rivalry is going to turn Asia, especially the South Asian region, into a new political and economic arena.

The selection of Antony Blinken as the new secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan as the national security advisor, indicates that the Biden administration will keep a hard stance on BRI/CPEC, says Naseem.

“Traditionally, Democratic Party has assigned great value to human rights and democratic approaches to resolving political tensions. Therefore, the Biden administration is expected to take a hard stance against human rights violations in China, particularly the crackdown on Uyghurs Muslims, and support Taiwan and Hong Kong against China” he says.

Pak-US relationship under Democratic presidents have never been smooth, says Naseem.

Given its past experience, he says, “Pakistan should not expect anything heartwarming when the human rights violations are common, free speech is curbed, and media independence is compromised.”

By and large, there is acceptance for the CPEC in Pakistan; however, some quarters feel uncomfortable, fearing Chinese hegemony over Pakistan and the region and have compared it with the threat of East India Company. That is the reason why the CPEC was a little slower and sluggish as compared to pre-Trump days, Haider adds. He says the BRI/CPEC is expected to gain momentum during Biden’s term because “Biden and the Democratic Party are known for having a soft position on China. The perception of having anti-China advisors is flawed – all important positions in Biden’s cabinet have been handed to China-friendly individuals.”

Haider believes that America, led by its Democrat president, will have the policy of letting China proceed with the BRI/CPEC programme. It looks like the US is not going to interfere with the CPEC and China will have a freer hand here.

On the other hand, China has pointed out that the CPEC will create 75,000 jobs for locals apart from improving the transportation and power infrastructure. The CPEC has already contributed “one to two percent” to Pakistan’s economic growth. The repayment period is 20-25 years starting from 2021 with an interest rate of 2 percent.

Pakistan has been trying hard to strike a balance between the two major powers of the world, the US and China, as it can’t afford to lose support from either of them. However, apart from international pressures, Pakistan’s weak economy, incompetent institutions, and the absence of political will remain a great hurdle to completing this project in the near future, says economist Dr Qais Aslam.

The author is a staff member. He can be reached at warraichshehryar@gmail.com