In an ideal world, almost three quarters of a million voters would exercise their right of franchise in Gilgit-Baltistan today. It is GB’s third election to elect a legislative assembly since Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order, 2009, was signed by President Asif Ali Zardari to convert the erstwhile Northern Areas into a self-governing region. Reports suggest that a political, strategic and administrative consensus is now in place in Islamabad to elevate GB from the recently announced status of a provisional province to the fully functioning fifth administrative unit of Pakistan.

Though over a dozen registered political parties and more than 320 candidates — mostly independents — are in the run for 24 seats, popular gossip predicts the results well before the first ballots are in the box. Street sages tell you that like the previous elections, the ruling party in Islamabad is bound to carry the day. Why? One, because they have already poached most of the “notables” or “electables” from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz; two, what can an opposition party in Islamabad deliver in Gilgit-Baltistan considering if it does not have the keys to the national coffers?

For facts and figures enthusiasts, Gilgit-Baltistan has three administrative divisions with 14 districts. The population is estimated at around 1.8 million. The total number of registered voters is 745,362 out of which 405,365 are male and 339,997 are female voters. Women still find it hard to be part of the voting process let alone taking part as candidates. There have been murders in the past over the issue of women casting their votes. GB remains a hard country for women. The legislative assembly has 33 seats. Elections are contested for 24 while six are reserved for women and three for technocrats. The 24 contested constituencies are located in 10 of the 14 districts — Gilgit, Nagar, Hunza, Skardu, Kharmang, Shigar, Astore, Diamir, Ghizer and Ghanche. 1,234 polling stations have been set up out of which 415 have been declared sensitive. Police, Rangers, FC personnel and GB Scouts will be deployed to ensure a smooth and peaceful electoral process. Army has been asked to stay away.

The elections have gained special significance. For national, regional and international reasons, GB is a region not to be overlooked. Otherwise at odds with each other on most national issues, the government, the opposition and the security establishment agree that Gilgit-Baltistan needs to be brought into the national administrative mainstream without compromising the principled position on Kashmir, for GB was originally part of the erstwhile princely state.

Canvassing campaigns for today’s polls have set new trends, energized local electorate and infused a sense of real competition. Taking a leaf from the charged political atmosphere in the country, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari landed in the area weeks ahead of other competitors. Media coverage of his rallies and public response to his fame and claims forced others to follow.

Addressing a workers’ convention in Gilgit soon after his arrival on October 22, the PPP chairman said, “as a grandson of Bhutto, I promise that we will give due rights to Gilgit-Baltistan and we will not renege on our promises.” In the following days and weeks, Bilawal virtually ran through 10 districts holding over three dozen rallies, corner meetings, personal visits to locals in major towns and villages. He hiked mountains to reach individual houses, paused at petrol pumps to use non-existent washroom facilities and stopped to have a chat with old men and women by the roadside. He has made new fans.

His message was the same everywhere: the PTI would take U-turns on promises they make, drive people out of jobs through poor policies and won’t deliver anything to people for “they are not capable of it”. Requesting anonymity, a local journalist said he felt that “Bilawal worked hard in GB like a political intern destined for bigger things in life.”

If the PPP and the PML-N win 11 or 12 seats, they would be in a position to make it difficult for the PTI to form a government. If the opposition is wiped out as Prime Minister Khan has claimed, the possibility of street agitation cannot be ruled out.

Maryam Nawaz landed a couple of weeks after Bilawal. Local leaders of her party had arranged rallies at various places during her seven-day campaign. Like Bilawal, Maryam’s guns remained trained at Imran Khan and his “selected, rejected” government. She spoke of her father’s plans for the region and the country and hoped the people would help PML-N return to power in GB so that those plans were accomplished.

How could the PTI leave the field open to the PPP and the PML-N? Stakes are high and times tricky. So Prime Minister Imran Khan arrived on November 1 “to grant Gilgit-Baltistan the provisional provincial status.” Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan Ali Amin Gandapur held the fort once the prime minister had left. Keeping true to his reputation for controversial remarks about political opponents, he gave a lot of material to social media zealots. Campaigning by government ministers and leading opposition figures finally nudged the local election commission into action. It demanded that all political leaders from other parts of the country leave the region.

Violations of the election rules by the ruling party and legal challenges to court orders by the opposition politicians aside, leading polls by Gallup and Pulse predicted that elections will be closely contested between the PTI and the PPP. Both surveys put the PTI ahead of the PPP, while the PML-N was relegated to the third place.

As for voting choices, 27 per cent of Gallup respondents said they would go for the PTI, 24 per cent opted for the PPP and 14 per cent chose the PML-N. Pulse figures were different though the order of choices remained the same as 35 per cent respondents opted for PTI, 26 per cent for the PPP and 14 per cent said they would go for the PML-N.

Although media coverage of the campaigns remained focused on the three leading electoral antagonists and largely overlooked other political and religious parties along with a few electable independent candidates, the results could throw up interesting scenarios.

The PPP had shone in 2009, winning 20 seats while the PML-N had swept the 2015 election with 22 seats. The PTI was not on the scene then. Going by the popular narrative that GB goes with Islamabad, the PTI should win most seats. But can it perform like the other two in the previous elections? What if the PML-N is not totally decimated completely despite losing some of its electables to the PTI? What if it manages to win two to three seats and then looks towards the PPP to pick up another eight or nine seats. It would be interesting to see if the independents and religious parties score at all. If the PPP and the PML-N can win 11 or 12 seats, they would be in a position to make it difficult for the PTI to form a government. If the opposition is wiped out as Prime Minister Khan claimed, the possibility of street agitation cannot be ruled out.

Poaching PML-N electables speaks of PTI’s failure to impress the local voters with its tabdeeli charm and resort to tactics that it used to condemn other parties for. Imran Khan might have fared well in the opinion polls but his administration’s failure to deliver on promises elsewhere in the country could dent his party’s chances in GB.

Since opposition campaigns have focussed largely on personalised criticism rather than laying out party policies to solve local problems, it could have an impact on the ruling party’s chances to sweep the elections. Promising progress and employment and linking it to futuristic China Pakistan Economic Corridor could also prove tricky for the PTI, as the multi-billion projects are largely stagnant at the moment.

It would be interesting to see if the PTI performs according to the expectations today despite its less than satisfactory performance all over Pakistan. If it does then it would mean that the voters can still be charmed by words rather than a political party’s performance.

The writer is Resident Editor, The News, Islamabad