A region having three nuclear powers – China, India and Pakistan - and the perennially ‘conflict-ridden’ Afghanistan has to be a happening place.

China and India are the two most populous countries in the world in that order, but their relations are unfriendly. Though their trade ties have grown tremendously and benefited both, particularly China, the border dispute that occasionally flares up as it happened in recent months has kept the tensions high. The two sides keep talking and make pledges, but the situation on their long, mountainous border will remain tense and prone to clashes unless the issue is amicably resolved. That is unlikely to happen any time soon.

The US role in the China-India dispute and its efforts to contain China by bringing India and the Far East Asian countries onto its side against Beijing have complicated matters. The US under President Donald Trump did everything to malign and harm China using a host of issues, including trade tariffs, coronavirus pandemic and Chinese border disputes with some of its Far Eastern neighbours, but Beijing remained patient and refused to get involved in polemics that could damage its fast-paced economic development.

Pakistan was invariably pulled into the Beijing-Washington dispute due to not only to its close relationship with China, but also its antagonistic ties with India. Its love-hate relationship with the US is a significant reason why it has to be careful not to annoy Washington while moving closer to Beijing. America’s closeness to India is a cause of worry for Pakistan, which for years enjoyed a more favourable relationship with the US when the Indians were very friendly with the Soviet Union. Even after the breakup of the USSR and India’s new found friendship with the US, New Delhi has continued to maintain friendly ties with Russia, particularly in the defence sector.

India and Pakistan have remained hostile towards each other since independence from British colonial rule 72 years ago. The Indo-Pakistan disputes, such as Kashmir, Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek, are old and have proved unresolvable, but there is concern that new ones, including terrorism, Balochistan and water-sharing are being added to the list and making the relations even more complex and almost beyond repair. The border dispute over Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek could have been resolved, but opportunities were missed, mostly due to Indian intransigence.

The US role in the China-India dispute and its efforts to contain China by bringing India and the Far East Asian countries onto its side against Beijing have complicated matters.

The Kashmir issue has become more complicated and difficult to resolve after the unilateral Indian move to annex Jammu and Kashmir by ending its special constitutional status and extending domicile law to the disputed state in a bid to change its Muslim-majority demography. Though India violated the UN resolutions on enabling the Kashmiri people to decide their fate through a plebiscite, it has got away with it as the Security Council and the international community have yet to do something to set right the wrong committed against the disenfranchised Kashmiris. Any lingering hope that arch-rivals India and Pakistan would be able to resolve the issue to be able to live as peaceful neighbours has dwindled due to the Indian actions.

Afghanistan continues to be a troubled and troublesome neighbour for Pakistan, but an opportunity has emerged after 42 years of conflict to improve the normally unfriendly relationship by agreeing to cooperate despite certain misgivings to make a success of the ongoing peace process involving the Taliban and their rival Afghans. Islamabad’s image internationally has improved on account of contributing meaningfully to facilitate the Taliban-US talks leading to the peace deal in Doha, Qatar, on February 29 this year. That deal cleared the path for the more challenging intra-Afghan peace talks that began on September 12 after six and a half months of delays due to the disagreements between Kabul and the Taliban over the exchange of prisoners under the Taliban-US Doha agreement. The talks are now deadlocked, but even starting the dialogue was an achievement as the Taliban, Kabul and the US all made concessions to make the intra-Afghan negotiations possible.

Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace process is one of a facilitator and trouble-shooter due to its old ties with the Taliban. It has performed this role quite well until now even though the Afghan government continues to doubt its intentions due to its closeness to the Taliban and is unwilling to allow Islamabad to claim credit for the success of the peace process. New Delhi too shares this view. Together the two could act as spoilers if any deal with Taliban benefits Islamabad. In such a scenario, Pakistan has to be careful not to become too deeply involved in the peace talks that are taking place between Afghans as both Taliban and Kabul have been insisting that the negotiations must be Afghan-led and owned with no presence of outsiders in the meetings at Doha. Moreover, making Afghanistan peaceful again has to be a shared responsibility involving the US, Qatar, China, Iran and Russia as Pakistan alone cannot achieve this most difficult mission.

The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar. He can be reached at rahimyusufzai@yahoo.com