Coalition governments are notoriously vulnerable to challenges, internal and external, that threaten the political alliances sustaining them. And while these challenges may vary in number and character, the issue of governance always puts to test a coalition government. The ruling party Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) currently finds itself in a similar situation with the past few months proving to be nothing but a nerve-racking ordeal for the coalition government.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), a coalition partner of the PTI, has quit the federal cabinet stating that the ruling party has failed to “deliver its promises”. Another coalition partner, the Balochistan National Party (BNP) remains annoyed with the government. But the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), which is seen as a critical ally especially owing to its significance in the Punjab, has lately been seen criticising PTI’s governance. The party has accused the PTI of ignoring its coalition partners in important decision making processes, and failing to honour its promises. This wave of political events has encouraged conspiracy theorists to predict a change in the current political set up.

The six coalition partners – the MQM-P with 7 National Assembly seats, PML-Q with 5, the BNP with 4, the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) with 3, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) with 5, and the Awami Muslim League with 1 – jointly contribute 25 members to the PTI-led coalition government at the Centre. Currently, the PTI has 156 seats in a house of 342. A minimum of 172 seats are required to form a majority government. The importance of major coalition partners and the slippery gradient for the PTI is quite apparent in these figures.

Though every partner is considered important in a coalition government given the kind of numbers, the PML-Q enjoys an enviable importance in the coalition government. The party’s ten seats in the Punjab Assembly have helped the PTI claim power in a province that has the largest population and is politically the most important. In doing so, the PML-Q has also managed to place itself in a strategic position, both at the provincial and the federal level.

Kamil Ali Agha, a spokesperson of the PML-Q, claims that his party has never asked for any ‘political gains’ from the ruling PTI – whether in terms of ministries or funds for their constituencies.

“Our only demand is that the PTI fulfil the commitments it made to its voters and help us do the same for ours,” he says while speaking to The News on Sunday.

“Though the PTI has not facilitated us according to the promises it made prior to forming the coalition government, we have willingly withdrawn some of our demands in return of assurances of better governance and reduction in unemployment. Unfortunately, the situation is so far disappointing. But we hope things will improve in the future.”

But is it fair to claim that the PML-Q has not gained anything while being in the coalition government? Majid Nizami, a political researcher, says that despite the current government’s ‘bad governance’, the PML-Q has never been at an advantage such as now since 2008.

The PML-Q has accused the PTI of ignoring its coalition partners in important decisions.

“Some of the political gains it has achieved include development funds that are only approved for PML-Q among the coalition partners; absolute authority over transfers and postings in the party’s constituencies; share in the federal cabinet that is expected to further increase in the future; and speakership of the Punjab Assembly,” he explains.

“The irritants between Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PML-Q have reduced to an extent over the past few months. Considering this, the possibility of a cooperative relationship between the two parties in the future is no longer a wild speculation. This puts significant pressure on the PTI and allows PML-Q to use this political leverage in its favour anytime it wants to.”

The other important coalition partner, the MQM-P, has expressed its disappointment off and on. But its decision to leave the federal cabinet explains the situation better than any statements. Though MQM-P has been part of coalition governments before but according to political analyst Mazhar Abbas, this is a different phase for the MQM-P.

“The MQM has been part of several previous coalition governments with a good number of national and provincial assembly seats. However, since July 2018, the MQM-P has lost political ground in its previously safe constituencies and accordingly, lost the bargaining capacity as well.” According to Abbas, the ‘latest version’ of the MQM-P is in no position to bargain like it used to do.

The BNP is another important ally of the federal government but it has continuously expressed disappointment over PTI’s failure to fulfil the six-point agenda it had agreed to. The latest warning to leave the coalition benches was given as recently as December last year by Sardar Akhter Mengal, chairman of the BNP.

While talking to the media then, Mengal had said that the one-year period given to the government was over, and that they were free to take their decisions stating that the BNP would not compromise on its six-point agenda. Those six points include recovery of missing persons, making serious efforts to end unemployment in the province and the return of Afghan refugees.

Majid Nizami says that the politics of the BNP is confused and that it does not appear to have any option except being part of the coalition. “The situation is unclear for the BNP. The party wants to deliver what it promised its voters to settle down the mounting pressure. But the complexity of the challenges the federal government faces is not allowing it to create such a space,” he says. “One thing the BNP is sure of is that leaving the coalition now will not bring it any good.”

However, rumours and conspiracy theories have been doing the rounds since December that the sudden escalation between the government and the coalition partners is perhaps a sign of a power shift at the centre.

Mazhar Abbas rules out these theories. “The PTI is in a comfortable working relationship with the state institutions. The current status is expected to be maintained in the near future as well,” he says. “As far as coalition partners are concerned, they carry no threaten it in the current circumstances. However, bad governance and incompetence of the PTI government may lead to some serious problems for the party in the next elections.”