The three men other than Federer who have won Wimbledon in the past 15 years are varyingly out of sorts
At the time of writing, Roger Federer is set to play Matthew Ebden in the quarter-final of the Gerry Webber Open. Should all go according to script, and form, Federer should be looking to win his 10th title at Halle when you read this.
The Swiss chose to skip the entire clay season for the second year running and would be hoping that the decision would pay similar dividends this year as well. The Stuttgart Open win following his return has ensured that Federer supplanted Rafael Nadal from the top of the rankings as well.
Federer would need to win at Halle to ensure that he remains the World No 1 till at least the end of Wimbledon. But even if there is a shock in store at the Gerry Webber Open, Federer would be the comfortable favourite at SW19.
The simple reason for this is the fact that for the first time in over a decade, there really is no competition in store for the World No 1.
The three men other than Federer who have won Wimbledon in the past 15 years are varyingly out of sorts. Novak Djokovic hasn’t won a major for over two years, and appeared particularly jaded after his Roland Garros exit. Andy Murray played his first match in over a year at Queen’s, where he lost a tight three-setter against Nick Kyrgios, while Nadal hasn’t made past the fourth round at Wimbledon since 2011.
Djokovic looked as convincing as he has over the past year or so in his 6-4, 6-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov on Thursday, and a deep run at the Fever-Tree Championships could bring him back into contention.
Nadal could bank on his clay run to boost his Wimbledon chances - as he did between 2006 and 2011 - but he’s always vulnerable to big-hitters and grass-court specialists in the first week. For Murray, it’s definitely too soon to be a discussion in winning majors.
While an on song Djokovic can topple Federer at Wimbledon - as he did in 2014 and 2015 - the Swiss’ main challengers lie elsewhere, which actually works perfectly in his favour.
The likes of Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem - the latter even though not as comfortable on grass as he’s on clay - both fell early in Halle. Of these younger challengers it is Kyrgios - who played another tight three-set match with Federer in Stuttgart - who looks the likeliest to post a challenge at Wimbledon. However, he is yet to translate his showing into any form of meaningful silverware, or deep runs at majors.
Other challengers for Federer include Marin Cilic, who the Swiss beat in the Australian Open final this year and Wimbledon final last year, and Juan Martin Del Potro. The Americans John Isner and Sam Querrey can serve anyone out of a match on their day, while US Open finalist Kevil Anderson too possesses the game to do damage on grass.
Even so, none of these are likely to go the distance at SW19. And perhaps the likeliest scenario is Federer replicating last year’s comfortable run to another title at Wimbledon, or perhaps a shock winner outside the Big Four and their youngest pretenders.
Of course, of the two possibilities it is Federer’s odds of winning his 9th Wimbledon crown that are significantly better. That Nadal, who hasn’t made a quarter-final in seven years at SW19 is slated in as the second favourite by the bookies which shows that there really is no sustained opposition for Federer at the third Grand Slam event of the year.
In addition to the win over Kyrgios, Federer would also have taken significant boost from the triumph against Benoit Paire. Having played another third set tie-break, the Swiss saved two match points - one on Paire’s serve - to give him the perfect match practice for tight situations after having spent over two months without any competitive action.
Of course, as always the draw at Wimbledon is going to be crucial. On current standings, for instance, Kyrgios or Djokovic could be dangerous third round prospects for some of the top seeds. Even Kyle Edmund could be a potential banana skin in the third round.
Nobody would want to play Isner or Querrey in the Round of 16. But quarter-finals onwards, depending on the matchups in store at the time, the bigger names should be able to gather their best tennis.
Federer and Nadal have split the last six majors between them, and the run is likely to continue in July. And while aficionados of the sport are privileged to be witnessing this combined renaissance of the two most illustrious male tennis players of all time, there is more than a case for perhaps the sport needing its next big name to have his major breakthrough.