The large-scale expulsion of Russian diplomats may trigger developments that can prove disastrous for the world
What could be regarded as a knee-jerk response, the expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany and other European countries indicates that a storm is again brewing in the political capitals of the world as Russia is again in the limelight 100 years after the formation of great Soviet Union and its breakup almost 70 years later. The failure of diplomacy had earlier thrust two world wars on several nations across the globe in the subsequent years and the recent diplomatic shakeup and tussle between Russia and Europe should be seen in that context.
It is a test case for the United Nations and the world leaders to stop the incident of alleged poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter from converting into a possible trigger for a third world war in the near future.
The nations which experienced the effects of earlier cold war know the uneasy calm prevailing in the days of bipolar world and wish it should not haunt their lives again. However, the speed of action of the European nations and reaction of the Russia government indicates the situation is more complex than it appears on the surface.
Though the humiliating disengagement of Soviet Union was an event only to fill the pages of history books like thousands of other make or break incidents, and no one was there to mourn the demise of a great world power, the current Russian government holds the seat of the old empire and it has some obligations to offload the debt of erstwhile nation. Russia has lost its place as a partner of the bipolar world, but still holds one of the strongest and technologically advanced armies of the world.
Since President Vladimir Putin took over rein of the government in Kremlin, mistrust was the only constant in the calculus of relations between European Union and Russia. After the poisoning incident, the British prime minister suspected that Russia had carried out the ‘acts of aggression’ against their shared values and interests within their continent and beyond and that the United Kingdom would stand by the European Union and NATO to face down any threat.
The poisoning incident shows it is still difficult to avoid conflicts, tensions, risks and proxy missions between Russia and rest of the Europe and the United States. The level of mistrust is still high as it was intact during the cold war and the London episode has the potential to spark a new wave of cold war across the globe when economy is the only priority for various nations. In starting a new cold war, which the Russian experts deny to have any in their operational strategies, Moscow will have to understand new realities and ground realities within its region.
More than 20 countries, including Ukraine, one of the principal and powerful components of the Soviet Union, as well as tiny republics of Latvia and Estonia have expelled over 100 Russian diplomats as sign of solidarity with the United Kingdom. The experts of international relations are not afraid of the beginning, but fear the emerging developments and its end. Russia is not Soviet Union, but legacy of the old era that still exists within the corridor of powers in Kremlin and where unhealed wounds of defeat in Afghanistan still need a reactive remedy. The country is again flexing its muscles for a possible showdown against western powers, but without any ideological backup in the rear end. However, military power has the guts to act and react in any situation on the basis of which Russia wants to grasp the lost place as a negotiation partner in place of the Soviet Union.
The world media is already ripe with reports that Russia and China are in the process of developing new generation of hypersonic weapons and the current missile shields of the United States would simply not work. It means the later will have to develop a defence system to match the missiles of hypersonic capabilities and the experts of international affairs fear a new race for the weapons of mass destruction would start. The situation could turn into a disaster as former US President George Bush scrapped the Anti-Ballistic Missile Accord with Russia, a Cold War-era treaty, in 2002.
Though the Russian economy is not showing an outstanding performance, it is on the right track and is developing at a comfortable rate. On another note, China has its own version of economic war with the United States with potentials to become the largest economy of the world. China is also emerging as the military power in the coming decades and its understanding of political matters with Moscow gives credence to the notion that the concept of unipolar or bipolar is heading for an end. The world is increasingly coming together where economic interests are more important than lands and areas.
Syria has become hotspot of the world conflicts where American and Russian forces have bases and are vigorously protecting their national interests. But any folly from any side can spark an unending conflict which could not only engulf the entire Middle East region but also runs a risk of spilling over to many other countries.
The United Nations has no ability to play any role when the matter is between world powers. The Russian diplomats have been expelled and the ball is now in Kremlin’s court to assess the damage to its foreign policy affairs. However, a foreign ministry official in Kremlin has resolved not to bow to the diplomatic war, not be intimidated and a tougher response should be expected from them.
Russia has long been blamed for flouting international norms in the course of history, as it allegedly annexed Crimea in 2014, shot down a Malaysian passenger plane over eastern Ukraine in which 300 people onboard were killed, and attacked the family of former spy with nerve agent. However, the United Kingdom is no more a world power and the United States is losing its place as the economic power and diplomatic offenses from both sides to start another cold war will not do any good to the world peace. The poisoning incident could have been investigated in coordination with Russian officials. After all, collaboration is better than confrontation.