A report issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) entitled, A Region at Risk: the human dimensions of climate change in Asia and Pacific, paints a bleak scenario for the countries in the Asia and Pacific region if climate change is not contained.

The report underlines a range of risks posed to the countries located in the region. A peculiar feature of the region is Himalayas that separates the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The mountain range contains nine of the ten highest peaks in the world. The highest peak on earth and the third-largest deposit of ice and snow in the world are also located in the range. Himalayas is South Asia’s water roof. Major rivers snaking through the region owe their sustenance to Himalayas.

The Indus, Yangtze, and Ganges-Brahmaputra are sources of life and livelihood for approximately1.3 billion people. The Yangtze is the longest river in Asia and the third longest in the world. It is considered a lifeline of China as it irrigates 20 per cent of the country’s land mass. The Mekong River runs through the China Myanmar, Lao, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Likewise, the Indus is a lifeline of Pakistan. And, the Ganges supports diverse ecosystem of India and Bangladesh.

Additionally, the Asia and Pacific region also contains precious ecosystems of large deltas of the Yellow River, Yangtze, Pearl River, Red River, Mekong, Chao Phraya, the Irrawaddy, Indus, and Ganges. These are among the most fertile deltas in the world providing home and livelihoods to hundreds of millions of people of the region.

All the aforementioned facts signify magnitude of the potential impact of climate change in the region. Life in the region is intractably intertwined with natural ecosystems, and therefore susceptible to climatic shocks. Different forms of climate change are likely to impact life in the region.

Rapid and haphazard urbanisation in the region also makes life vulnerable to vagaries of climate. Share of urbanised population in the region has increased from 20 per cent in 1950s to approximately 50 per cent today, and it is expected to increase to 65 per cent by 2050. In absolute numbers, urban population is enormous. It has reached 1.6 billion and is expected to swell to 2.25 billion by 2030. This explains the fact that the Asia and Pacific region comprises some of the largest cities on earth. In 2014, the region had 16 of the 28 mega cities (with more than 10 million population) of the world and 28 of the 44 large cities (with 5-10 million inhabitants).

Another vulnerability dimension is a sizeable population inhabited in low elevation coastal strips. One important impact of the climate change phenomenon is increasing sea level that makes coastal communities extremely vulnerable. Some of the countries in the region have a large part of their population located in the Asian littorals -- Bangladesh (48.7 per cent), Myanmar (27.8 per cent), Thailand (26 per cent) and Vietnam (54.7 per cent) are few such examples.

Although Pakistan’s coastal population is lesser (3.2 per cent only), its economic significance is high. As atmospheric temperature increases, low elevation areas are exposed to greater risks. The sea encroaches large tracts of coastal areas, renders ground water unfit for human consumption and erodes livelihood resources like agriculture and fisheries.

During the last century, sea level rise of about 0.19 metres has been observed. This was the largest sea-level increase of the past 25 centuries. Due to this phenomenon, flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities (Hallegatte et al. 2013). Studying the 136 largest coastal cities, the experts estimate that the average global flood losses in 2005 were approximately $6 billion per annum, which could potentially increase to $52 billion by 2050.

According to Munich Re, a reinsurance company based in Munich, Germany, economic losses caused by tropical cyclone in the region ($220 billion) are equal to 30 per cent of total global losses between 1980 and 2014. The corresponding share of fatalities was 374,000 which is 93 per cent of global mortality, indicating the high vulnerability of Asia and the Pacific to the tropical cyclone hazard.

A research study finds an alarming increase in tropical cyclone numbers by 46 per cent for the Arabian Sea. The population at risk residing within 100 kilometres from the coastline is more than 37 per cent of the population in the Asia and Pacific region.

Greenpeace estimated that in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan approximately 130 million people reside in low-elevation coastal zones and are at risk of being displaced by the end of the 21st century under worst-case scenarios.

Like coastal communities, mountain areas inhabitants are also facing a variety of risks. Glacial loss exposes communities to another string of risks. Most glaciers are in decline and the Himalayan region is experiencing rapid retreat of glacier area. Glacial melt unleashes catastrophic floods. Having large rivers, the region faces wrath of floods every year.

According to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), every year an average of 125 recorded riverine flood events occurred globally between 2001 and 2015, claiming a total of over 4,000 lives. Asia shared 90 per cent of the affected people and 59 per cent of economic losses worldwide, equivalent to about 80 million people and $23 billion annually. The 2011 flood in Thailand was the most expensive insurance loss worldwide attributed to riverine flooding, with insured liabilities estimated at $15 billion.

Monsoonal flooding in Pakistan in 2010 caused nearly 2,000 immediate fatalities and estimated economic losses of over $10 billion. Between 1996 and 2015, six of the world’s ten most affected countries by extreme events (Myanmar, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Thailand) were in Asia.

The report reveals that the Asian countries are likely to experience harsher summers. The Paris Accord promises to limit global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, however under business-as-usual scenario, Asian summer temperatures over land are projected to increase by 6°C by 2100 with no sign of a slowdown in the warming trend.

Thermal variation will have different impact on various countries in the region. Under the business-as-usual scenario, annual mean precipitation is projected to increase in the late 21^st century by up to 50 per cent over most land area. By contrast in Pakistan and Afghanistan annual mean precipitation is projected to decline by 20-50 per cent over this period. This underlines the need of a well-meditated water conservation strategy in Pakistan.

Regrettably the water conservation debate in Pakistan has been confined only to construction of dams.

Changing climate scenario merits a greater focus on conservation of water resources in Pakistan. Broad-based reforms in agriculture sector to rationalise water consumption would be the key to reduce climate vulnerability of Pakistan.

Climate change is no more a fiction that could be dismissed with disregard. A complex set of challenges emanating from the climate change phenomenon deserve more serious attention and responses. Euphoria of economic development sans consideration of environmental and climatic consequences could erase all gains of decades. Public policy and peoples’ practices ought to be realigned with changing realities. Asia is growing astronomically at a very high pace. Sustainability of growth could be derailed if perils of environmental backlash are underestimated and ignored.