Lionel Messi’s 500th goal for Barcelona, and one of his performances of the season in the El Classico last Sunday, might just have put the Catalans on the front foot in the race for the La Liga crown. The league encounter at Satiago Bernabeu was rightly billed as the title decider, and it would’ve been precisely that had Real Madrid won the game to go six clear of Barca with a game in hand.

Even a draw would’ve made Madrid overwhelming favourites to go all the way. But it was Messi’s stunning winner in the dying seconds that has set the tone for a thrilling finish to the season, taking Barcelona to the top of the table on a better head-to-head, even though Madrid have a game in hand.

After being knocked out of the UEFA Champions League by Juventus, Barca are still with a shot at the domestic double, with their Copa del Rey final scheduled against Alaves on May 27. But it’s the league title that could save their season, by not only adding the trophy to their cabinet, but also taking it away from Madrid’s, who are aiming for the League and UCL double, ahead of their semi-final clash with Atletico Madrid.

So how good does either side look to win the league, as both chase glories on two fronts?

After midweek wins against Deportivo La Coruna (6-2) and Osasuna (7-1), Real Madrid and Barcelona are locked at 78 points each with Real having played 33 games to Barca’s 34. Of Madrid’s five remaining fixtures, three are away (Granada, Malaga and Celta Vigo) and two at home (Valencia, Sevilla). Barcelona have two at home (Villarreal, Eibar) and two away (Espanyol, Las Palmas).

While Madrid had beaten all the away sides they are scheduled to play, in the reverse fixtures at home, the only other two league matches that they had lost prior to Sunday’s defeat were away to Valencia and Sevilla, the two sides they’ll be taking on at home.

Of the four teams that Barca will play, only Villareal managed to take points after Messi rescued a draw with a 90th minute free kick at the Estadio de la Ceramica.

This means that Madrid, despite the game in hand, do have the slightly tougher run in - in spite of their opponents being slightly lower down the table if you take out the overall mean. Not to mention the two-legged tie against Atletico Madrid that they would be playing between these fixtures, while Barca’s only other game this season, the Copa del Rey final, would be played only after the league games are over.

So Madrid’s advantage only boils down to the game in hand away to Celta Vigo. Let’s not forget that if the teams end up with the same points at the end of the season, Barcelona would win, thanks to their better head to head against Madrid, after a 1-1 draw at the Nou Camp in December. This means that Real Madrid need to drop at least three more points than Barcelona (a loss or a couple of draws) for Los Blancos to concede the league title to their rivals.

For either side to win, the forms of Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo would be crucial, and they seem to be headed in contrasting directions come the season end. This wasn’t more palpable than the match on Sunday, where Messi grabbed a potential league deciding brace, while Ronaldo was mostly pedestrian at best, even when Madrid had all 11 of their players on the pitch.

So who then is the favourite to win the league, when all the aforementioned factors are considered?

It’s safe to say that Barca need to win all their remaining fixtures to win the league, which of course they’re perfectly capable of, because it’s hard to see Madrid dropping points in multiple games, with the league at stake. The UCL semis could be a distraction for Real, but fortunately for them, the game that falls between the ties against Atletico Madrid is against Granada, which on paper should be easy pickings for them.

For Madrid, it might eventually boil down to how they use their squad. They mightn’t want to prioritise whether they want La Liga more of the Champions League, considering what both wins would represent.

Madrid haven’t won the league since 2012, but have won the UCL twice over the past three years. They’re looking to become the first side to defend the UEFA Champions League since it was transformed from the European Cup. But at the same time, they would want to counter La Liga hegemony of Barca, who have won the league in three of the past four seasons (six out of the past eight).

While the league title had long been considered a foregone conclusion in favour of Madrid a few weeks ago, now if they were really pressed to choose between La Liga and the UCL, they might actually go with the former. For, it prevents Barca from another piece of silverware and reciprocates Real’s European successes domestically as well.

A double for either side, considering the context of the La Liga race would be an astounding achievement. But either side could just as easily finish trophy-less, if their season derails at the very end.