Explaining the dynamics of Uttar Pradesh election where Samajwadi Party and Congress have dug their heels against the BJP and BSP
Uttar Pradesh (UP) literally means northern state and, population-wise, is the largest state (province) in India. If it secedes from India to become an independent country, it will be one of the largest democracies in the world after India, the USA, and Indonesia. With around 220 million people, UP is smaller than Indonesia that boasts over 250m people, but looking at the faltering democratic traditions in Indonesia, UP stands out as a much better democracy -- whereas Indonesia has suffered dictatorships for decades.
Currently, Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, the chief minister of UP, is engaged in a bitter tussle with his father. In the last weeks of January, he won a major battle in the court against his father, Mulayam Singh Yadav. The case involved the ownership of the Samajwadi Party (SP) that was founded by Mulayam Singh in 1992. Now the belligerent both -- father and son -- claimed to be the real leader of the SP and wanted to use the election symbol of bicycle in the upcoming elections. The Election Commission (EC) decided in favour of the group led by Akhilesh Yadav and allowed them the exclusive use of bicycle as their election symbol.
In the entire episode, the son had tried reconciliation with his father many times but the sire was not to be cowed by his own offspring. When the EC decided the case for Akhilesh, he went straight to his father for his blessings and even used it as a photo op. Within minutes, the photos were blazing on the social media with a claim that the cycle would keep moving ahead. Interestingly, after the last elections, it was Mulayam Singh himself who had elevated his son to be the CM of UP on behalf of Samajwadi Party.
Before the EC verdict, Mulayam Singh had repeatedly announced that he would contest elections against his son in February 2017. If we look at the political history of UP, we find that after independence in 1947, for two decades, the Indian National Congress (INC) ruled on its own. The longest tenure as the CM was enjoyed by Govind Ballabh Pant who remained the CM for eight years from 1946 to 1954. Then another INC politician, Sampurnanand, occupied the post for six years till 1960; followed by Chandra Bhanu Gupta and Sucheta Kriplani for three years each.
Finally, in 1967 a former leader of the INC, Charan Singh, deprived the INC of its hold in UP and defeated Congress to become the first non-Congress CM of UP. Charan Singh became a bitter critic of both JL Nehru and his daughter, Indira Gandhi, but could maintain his rule in UP just for two years till 1969. From 1970 to 1977 somehow Congress managed to regain and retain power in UP that ultimately was swept away by an anti-Indira onslaught across India in 1977. Janata Party formed its government in 1977 just to lose it again to Congress in 1980.
From 1980 to 1989, for almost a decade the Congress Party once again held sway following which Mulayam Singh Yadav (MSY) took hold of UP for the first time. That first tenure of MSY lasted hardly for 18 months. Then the BJP’s Kalyan Singh was elected the CM who was dismissed when he failed to restrain the Sangh Parivar (the RSS and its coteries) from destroying the famous Babri Mosque in December, 1992. Then for another 18 months Mulayam Singh remained CM till 1993, followed by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s Mayawati just for four months.
For the next ten years, the BJP and BSP alternately held power to be succeeded by Mulayam Singh once again in 2003. This time, he remained the CM for four years till 2007. So, if we look at the past three decades, we see MSY as the CM for three tenures -- the last being for four years from 2003 to 2007. In all, MSY retained the post for just seven years and after winning the elections in 2012 he selected his son Akhilesh to be the CM. In UP, the Congress Party has not been able to win a single election to form its government since 1989.
Slightly better is the BJP which, during the last 25 years, held power in UP for five years from 1997 to 2002. Another important player has been the BSP formed by Kanshi Ram in 1984 and later led by Mayawati. The BSP claims to represent the lowest of the casts and tribes that are dubbed scheduled casts and tribes. In addition, the BSP also attracts votes from the religious minorities by championing their rights. After the death of Kanshi Ram in 2006, Mayawati became the supreme leader of the BSP and up until now has been CM for four tenures.
First, she became CM in 1995 just for four months, then in 1997 she held power for six months. In 2003-04 she was the CM for 18 months and finally from 2007 to 2012 she managed to complete her full five-year term. In all, she has held power for the same number of years as MSY has done i.e. seven years. Samajwadi Party has held power for 12 years including the 2012-17 tenure of Akhilesh Yadav. The INC has been losing the game consecutively despite Rahul Gandhi’s efforts to revive the party in the largest of the Indian states.
UP is the fourth largest state of India in terms of area, after Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. It has an area equivalent to the area of Great Britain, whereas in terms of population it is bigger than Pakistan. Out of the total GDP of India, Maharashtra produces the largest chunk to the tune of around 13 per cent that rivals Pakistan’s GDP of around US$300b. The next are Tamil Nadu and UP each claiming 8-10 per cent of the Indian GDP.
Now the situation in UP is that Akhilesh Yadav has announced his alliance with Congress against the BJP and BSP. Whereas his father is planning to nominate his own candidates against his son’s party and in that he is not even consulting his son. The Election Commission has used the evidence of the majority claimed by Akhilesh to award him the sole proprietorship of Samajwadi Party and its election symbol. This verdict has created new problems for the senior Yadav. He had the option of either compromising with his son or contesting elections with a different party name and symbol that will deprive him of the traditional advantage.
It appears that in the entire episode, MSY miscalculated his strength expecting that the party majority would side with him for he was the founder and senior most leader of the party. To his dismay, with the changing wind direction, most party members opted to be loyal to his son, Akhilesh. In this father-son bout, MSY’s brother and Akhilesh’s uncle, Shivpal Yadav, has also played an important role. Shivpal is around 15 years younger than MSY and by the same number of years older than his nephew, Akhilesh. Akhilesh is around 45 years old, Shivpal is around 60, and Mulayam is over 75.
Shivpal himself once wanted to replace Mulayam who made Akhilesh his crown prince and later the king; and now Mulayam wants the throne back but the new king is in no mood to do so. In between MSY and Shivpal there is another player, 70-year-old Ram Gopal Yadav supporting his nephew, Akhilesh. Ram Gopal has welcomed the EC’s decision and accepted Akhilesh as the sole leader of Samajwadi Party. Not long ago, Akhilesh had himself elected the president of SP, further strengthening his position in the UP politics.
If you compare all this with the situation in Pakistan, the children of Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif appear to be loyal to their parents; and the siblings also don’t go against each other. We remember the dispute between Benazir Bhutto and Murtaza Bhutto that cost both dearly. Despite all these familial political battles, we should remember that in democracy everyone has a right to follow their own path of politics, including the right to oppose or support their family members. Such differences should be the beauty of democracy rather than a weakness. People have the right to decide whom to support; democracy becomes stronger with such variety.
To conclude, we can see the saw: "if two persons think alike, they don’t think much."